A coucciion ol articles on the historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects ol
All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed in Studies in Intelligence arc those of
ihe authors (hey do not necessarily reflect official positions or views of the Central Intelligence Agency or any other US Government entity, past or present. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government endorsement of an article's factual statements and interpretations.
ACK1 when the Office of Research and Reports was just being set up, the then Assistant Director,il-
WTOletaafunctions and methods of economic Intelligence, in It, he spelled out the reasons for ORR's existence, Its major and mSor tasS and toe methods by which these tasks might best be performed The paper was, in effect, marching ordersewwgamza-tlon as it embarked on Its job.
We have here printed the greater part of Dr. Millikan's paper
b$tlUltlaJ chanees Without an, attemprto
MmLn** because Dr
Mllllkan was the first AD/RR; and second, not because the paper was an official document defining ORR's operatingIndeed, recalling toat Studies tn Intelligence will pub-hsh only unofficial, Individual contributions to basic Intelligence doctrine we axe printing Dr. Millikan's paper in some sense despite these facts about Its author and its original purposefor publishing the paper is this: it is. we feSTa dtotoigmshed contribution to the study of intelligence analysis methodology. And Its application is by no means limited to economic intelligence; the same order of analytic problems toe same problems of sources, extent of information, competing
SEJ^SfJS,nyactivity. The same problem Dr. Mllllkanof building authoritative knowledge out ofis perhaps the central problem of. Mau*cnce
There Is no need to rehearse in detail Dr. MDllkan's quail-flcatlons for tackling such problems. He was for severalenior official of this Agency and Is now Director of the Center for International Studies atn organization toat has conducted important research on Soviet and World Communist affairs since Its inception
Mr. Howerton's paper complements Dr. Mllltkan'i. on two levels. On the level of economic Intelligence research. Iturrent view of tbe methods devised1 for analyzing, in successive approximations to the complete picture, the Soviet economy; it is. thus, inase-study of the method of successive approximations described in broad terms by Dr. Mllllkan.ore general level. Mr. Howerton'i paperurvey of tbe amazing diversity of research techniques available to the intelligence analyst and of the potentialities of overt (or. at least, easily obtainable)If only the analyst knows what to do with the resources available to him.
Mr. Bowerton joined this Agency1areer in corporate and private research organizations. Henique combined competence in chemistry, mathematics, and languages and Is fellow of morecore of national and international professional associations. Mr. Howerton is, at present, Assistant to the Deputy Director/Intelligence (Planning).
In this issue we alsoontinuingotes and Comments Department. We have received aof letters on the first two issuesmany. In themselves, substantial contributions to thinking about intelligenceand methods. Of these, we here publish two, both on the subject of "capabilities'* and responsive to ths January issue of Studies in Intelligence. Maj. Gen. John A. Samford Is Director of Intelligence.ir Force; Mr. Alan J. P. Crick is JIC (London) Representative to this Agency. We areto both for permitting us to publish their comments. And we very much hope that, as subsequent Issues appear, we will keep on receiving your comments, criticisms, and suggestionspublishable or not. We would like to know what you think of thaOriginal document.