POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE OF ECONOMIC REGIONS XI AND XII OF THE USSR, 1950-55

Created: 8/5/1955

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Office of Current Intelligence

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POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE OF ECONOMIC REGIONS XI AND XII OF THE USSR

Office of Research and Report* CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE

BLANK PAGE

CONTENTS

I. Population

Population

of

by Administrative

II.

Appendixes

Appendix A. Cities in Soviet Economic Regions XI anda Population of

17

Appendix B.

Appendix C. Gaps in Intelligence

Appendix D. Source References

it

Tables

Population of Soviet Economic Regions XJ

and XII.nd

Rates of Increase per Thousand for Soviet

Economic Regions XI and XII.

- iii -

IQP SDCRBT

Page

Urban Population of Soviet Economic

Regions XI and XII, by Administrative

Employment in Soviet Economic Region XII,

by Selected Industries,4 . .

in Soviet Economic Regions XI and XII Having

a Population of,5

Population of Soviet Economic Regions XI

22

and XII, by Administrative Unit. Based on Election

Districts,

Reported Population of Soviet Economic Regions XI

and XII, by Administrative Unit,99 ..

Map

Eastern USSR: Estimated Population.5 . . . Inside

Back Cover

I

ORR)

POPULATION AND LABOR FORCF, OF CiONS XI AND XII OF THE USSR *

Summary

This report is an analysis o( all sources of data regardingof the two easternmost regions of the USSR.XI (East Siberia) and Economic Region XII (Far East).have been no detailed census publications of In the absence of luch figures, three principalcurrent population estimates are presented andreports from local registrars summarizingllocation of territory to All-Union(eachllocation ofto RSFSR election districts (eachthe RSFSR).

The population of Regions XI and XII.which has increasedaster rate than that of thc USSRhole during theears, is estimated to beillion. Birth rates are

The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the best judgment of ORR as

The economic regions referred to in this report are those defined and numbered on CIAirstSSR Economic Regions.

*** ourth method, not used in this report because of the lack ol data, depends onase population by adding estimated births and immigration and subtracting deaths and emigration

exceptionally high, reflecting pioneer population concentration in thc young adult age span. Some of the increase also stems from the transfer of previously uncounted forced laborers to thc counted free population. About one-half of the population is in urban areas.

Population increases are indicated for the yearshe frontier areas of Anadyr' (Magadanoril'sk.(Krasnoyarskiynd Yakutskhe commercial-industrial areas of Chita Oblast. Amur Oblast, and the southern urban areas oi Sakhalin Oblast and Primorskiy Kray;he area of electric power development on the Angara River in Irkutsk Oblast.

Employment is concentrated in the extractive and primaryindustries fishing, mining (nonferrous metallurgy andetroleum, and timber. The ratio of industrial employment to total employment is higher in Region XI] than in tho USSRhole.

I. Population.

The development of Siberia and the Ear East has long been an objective of Russian rulers. Even before the completion of thc rail link, pioneer agricultural settlements pushed into the area, and the census7opulationillion in the area roughly comparable to the present Economic Regions XI (East Siberia) and XII (Far East). Substantial growth continued up to World War I, but46 the area lost heavily because of war casualties, purges, famines, epidemics, and the migration of persons exiled by the tsars. The "free" population of this area in6 census numberedillion, and6 million.* The increase94 was overercent.

* Not includingopulation of South Sakhalin.which waathen Japanese.

** uumoercu sourceee Appenuix u.

Population.

The population oi Regions XI and XII is estimated lo beiUionargin ol* error of plus orercent). consisting ofillion in Region XI andiUion in Region XII. This estimate isillion greater than the figureiUionargin of error of plus orercent) which was made. This is an increase ofercent per year compared with an increase of aboutercent per year in the USSRhole. 2/ crcent rale is sufficient to account for thc high rate of natural increase which is possibly as high asercent per year in the area as wellate of migration below that of thes.

of Increase.

The increase in the free population on which election district allocations ere based may come from three sources: excess of births over deaths, excess of immigration over emigratlon.and transfers from forced labor to free labor. All three have contributed in some measure to tho increasendicated in Table It is not possible to assign an exact value to any of the three.

side rat ion natural increase rates

see Tabicand the somewhat lower annual increase ofor the USSRhole, it is estimated that Regions XI and XJ1 may have increased by aboutoercent per year. This rate of increase would addillionillion inear period. ifference between this natural increase and the estimated totalof the two regions ineems reasonable in view of thc probable migration trends and additions to the population from amnestied forced labor in this area. Although these two elements cannot be separated statistically, it is apparent that the increase indicated in the northern areas of Krasnoyarsk. Yakutsk,

ollows on p. 4. ollows on p Continued on p. (k.

TOP SECJM**

EI3 c| | S|

)

Tabic 2

Natural Rates of Increase per Thousand for Soviet Economic Regions XI and

Unit

Economic Region XI {East Siberia)

Krasnoyarskiy Kray

Yakutsk ASSR Irkutsk/ Tuva Autonomous Oblast Chita Oblast c/

Economic Region Xll (Far East)

blast Khabarovskiyrimorskiy Kray Sakhalin Oblast tl el

N.A.

N.A.2

N. A. 26

B-irth Death Net Natural Increai

46

. .

N.A.

. A.

18

. 10

N.A.

.

46

based6 census g/

Siberian Kray Buryat-Mongol ASSR Far Eastern Kray

6 39

9 18

7 21

mbic 2

Natural Raleu of Increase per Thousand for Soviet Economic Regions XI andContinued)

discrepancy between total population

and election district estimates0 indicates that these rates may be artificially high.

g- 67

Magadan resulted partly from the absorption of forced laborers. Some of those laborers may also have scattered into other areas. Two facts would appear to apply tohat increases because ofprobably were concentrated in Sakhalin and along tho Trans-Siberian Railroadhat duringears thereain from this source of not, orer year. Thisuch slower rate than in the immediate postwar years.

C Urban-Rural Residence.

Tableives thc urban population of areas where this areas include most of the

population of Regions XI and XII. On the basis of these data it isthat aboutercent of the population was urbanhis figure is considerably above theorcent announced for thc USSRhole at about the same date. 9/ Application of thisercent to the1 population of these two regions indicated by thc election districts yields an urban population ofnd an equal rural population. If the percentage of urban population had increased tohen thc total urban population at the latter date would be.

ollows on p.* Based onlus estimates for Primorskiy and Magadan

TOP

Table 3

Estimated Urban Population of Sovietgions XJ And XII

by Administrative0

Unit

Economic Region XI (East Siberia)

Population

Population Pe rcent

Krasnoyarskiy Kray b/

842

ASSR cf

339

769

Oblast d/

730

ASSR e/

766

Autonomous

703

752

164

Region XII (Far East)

Amur Oblast h/

Khabarovskiyrimorskiy Kray Sakhalin Oblast k/

.

51

. 72

used here for See Appendix B. Methoaology. for the reasons they differ from other population figures presented in this report.

EOF

Table 3

Estimated Urban Population of Soviet Economic Regions XI and XII by Administrative0 (Continued)

i. nr

j- This is not the entire kray but only the lower portion around the cities of Khabarovsk and Komsomol'sk. Kamchatka Oblast, Magadan Oblast, Lower Amur Oblast, and the Jewish Autonomous Oblast are nothe population of Kamchatka Oblast is approximatelyercent urban.

k.

Estimates from various sources have been compiled in Tableppendixisting the latest totals available for cities0 and over. The total for all of these cities is aboutillion. Since some of the estimates are not up to date, it is probable that this total may be low byoercent. On this basis the population off all urban areas5 would be divided into approximatelyn cities ofndn cities of.

A closer scrutiny of population developments can be made by studying the administr.it.ve areas and the allocation of election districts within them. (See thc map.

D. Population by Administrative Units.

Krasnoyarskiy Kray.(population estimate: .

See Appendix A,elow. ** Inside back cover.

The increase in population as reflected in the additional allocation of election districts was in the northern part of this large administrative area. Increases in population in the southern part from either natural increase or migration apparently were sufficiently scattered not to have caused adjustments in the allocation of election districts. The northern area, particularly around i. which ia rumored to have uranium deposits as well as copper, coal, arid iron, did show, an additional allocation of election districts equivalent to an increasenhabitants. This area, like thc better known Dal'stroy. was developed under the auspices of the MVD forced-labor camps for the exploitation of its mineral and timber resources. This exploitation resulted in the economic development of sections accessible to river transportation and also brought about the effort toailroad from Salekhard to Population estimated on the basis of election districts is free population. Increases in free population probably are largely the result of3 amnesty, the release of other prisoners who have been persuaded to remain in tho area, and the immigration of free settlers.

ASSR (population estimate:

This area lies between northern Krasnoyarskiy KrayOblast and exhibits some of the characteristics of both. Dal'stroy lies in this autonomous republic. Thus theree inhabitants here in this period probably results fromforces which act in the other two areas, both of which areon mining activity. In all three areas, released prisonersfrom leaving, and pecuniary incentives are offerednew

Oblast (population estimate:

rojected series of hydroelectric stations along the Angara River begunrobably is primarily responsible for the population increases ofercent per year1 The new city of Angarsk became the center

mr rrow ft

ew RSFSR election district whenreviously centered in the city of Irkutsk were redivided into 4

tw/-fttSiIrtkUlS.k- Another election district was added at the rail junction of THyshet, orthern trunkline branches from the Trans-Siberian Railroad on its way north of Lake Baikal. The amazing hydroelectric potential as well as the mineral resources of the area, the exploitation of which haa apparently just begun, provides the base for probable continued rapid growth.

4" ASSR (population estimate:

, Although Irkutsk showed an increase in population during this periodercent, no increase was shown in the neighboring Buryat-Mongol ASSR. The geography of the two areas is similar except that Irkutsk has the Angara River development. The flat lands oi Buryat-Mongol are uaed, for the most part, as grazing lands and supportparse population. Buryat-Mongolmall areamall base population which makes one electionreater proportion of the total population and thusone time to grow into an additional district.

Artn 5- Tuva Autonomous Oblast

Tuva is the only administrative unit in southeastern Siberia not served by the Trans-Siberian Railroad. Its abundant mineral resources have not yet been extensively exploited. The small ongmal population, even smaller than Buryat-Mongol ASSR, willimilarly long period of time to growew dis-trict. Intense development will bc dependent on transportation for the rich mineral resources. The probability of any extensive agricultural development is slight because of the very limited amount ol good agricultural lands.

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- 6. ChiEa Oblast (population estimate: ,

The high rate of growth in Chita is based on theof scattered deposits of copper, lead, tin, and coal and on some expansion of agriculture, but not on any one centralized development project as in Irkutsk. Some increase in population has also resulted from increased activity on the Chinese Eastern Railroad, which branches off the Trans-Siberian Railroad in Chita and which requires additional warehousing and transshipment.

7. Amur Oblast (population eatimai*- .

According to Shabad. Amur contains "one of the major grain-growing districts of the Soviet Far East" andrural population density /which ie? high for the eastern part of the Asiatic Timber and gold mining in the northern mountainous districts of Amur as well as agriculture and primary processing in the south were well established Since then, changes in the election district allocationsopulation growth that allows little more than would result from an expected net natural increase. The greatest concentration of population is in such cities in the south as Blagoveshchensk. Kuybyshevka-Vostochnaya. and Svobodnyy. where thc processing of agricultural product, and the products of the northern mines and timber regions is carried on.

8' Khabarovsk^ Kray lnd MaBadan 0oiastuiation estimate: .

Thla aroa was under one administration. Khabarovskiy Kray.hen Magadaneparate obla.t. in southern Khabarovsk is limited to truck product, near the large cities. The area has grown, however, on the basis of it. mineral re.ource. and commercial location. The rivers and coastal area provide ports for fishing operations and outlets for thc timber and minerals of tho interior. Although iron is not abundant, Komsomol'sk is the center of the largest metallurgical activities in

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the Soviet Far East. The area, however, does not have sufficient steel capacity to use its other mineral resources beyond primary The pattern of development was established after the building of Komsomol'sko that0 migration had slackened and thc growth in the southern part of Khabarovsk probably was primarily due to its high natural increase. Birth rales can be expected to decline however, as the original migrants grow out of the reproductive ages. These conditions are reflected in the unchanged number of election districts allocated to the southern area of Khabarovsk

Thc people of the Lower Amur Oblast, especially since the removal of the naval station at Nikolayevsk. arc engaged almost exclusively in fishing and gold mining, with fur trapping and deer grazing occupying the native population in the interior. Theare currently limited by climatic conditions and the absence of rail or road transportation in the interior. Consequently, the population has not outgrown ita one election district during thend probably will not in the near future.

The Magadan area, which was made into Magadan Oblastad been developed as Dal'stroy under the auspices of thc MVD forties gold and other nonferrous metals. After3 the area was taken from MVD supervision and placed under the Ministry of Nonferrous Metallurgy. At the same time, thc Magadan-Kolyma area and the Chukotsk National Okrug were separated from Khabarovskiy Kray to form Magadan Oblast. This new administrative area was made intoopulation All-Union election districtndopulation RSFSR election districtseplacing what had previously been one and one-half RSFSR districts in the same*area. These changes seem toesser emphasis on forced labor in the area and possibly an increase in the free population through immigration oresult of thc3 amnesty. (There is, however, no measure of thc extent to which this area was affected by the amnesty, which applied mainly to criminal prisoners) With the transportation facilities developed under the MVD and the rich resources, the area probably will continue to grow. The increased mining of minerals other than gold could greatly affect the primary manufacturing and therefore

the population of the Southern areas of Khabarovskiy and Primorskiy Krays.

esult of the separation of Chukotsk and Koryaki National Okrugs, Koryakieparate election district. Some increased mining and fishing activities may account for this possible increase in population. For both these districts, however, the more .likely deduction is that the election districts which have been recently added overestimate the population. These additions may, however, reflect the absence of additions further south where underestimates may exist, thus making the estimate for the Khabarovskiy Kray and Magadan Oblasthole more accurate than that for any part.

9. Primorskiy Kray (population estimate: ,

Primorskiy Kray contains the oldest settlements and is the most stable region in the Soviet Far East. Its regular growth is reflected by the increase in its election districts* and particularly by the increase in these districts around tho urban area of Vladivostok, Artem, and Voroshilov. This type of growth was in part made possible by keeping the port of Vladivostok open the year round with thc aidleet of ice-breakers. Its continuing growth isesult of the development along the Trans-Siberian Railroad eastward from Krasnoyarsk, for which it is the eastern terminal. It is also the terminal point for the Northern Sea Route as well as many other ocean routes from northern ports of thc Ear East. Coastal coalfields and some iron ore deposits made possible the numerous ship coaling stations and repair ports along its coasts. Abundant timber resources inland and thc possibilities for agricultural development in the humid river valleys add further potentialities to the economic development of.this area.

10- Sakhalin Oblast (population estimate: .

* See Table.elow

Sakhalinoviet population ofefore the acquisition of thc southern half from

The discrepancy betweeneported1 andedian between01 fc.at.ti.Oti district estimatesrobably is thc result of the lag in thc one or anticipation in the other in adjusting for thc large emigration to South Sakhalin.

apanese who lived in South Sakhalin were mostly evacuated and replaced by Russians Thc evacuees lefteveloped rail transportation systemishing industry which could be usedase for further Soviet resettlement and development. Thc northern part ol the island has remained one0 population) election district1hile South Sakhalin rose from four0 population)1 to five0 population)* It is not possible tothe exact extent of migration to South Sakhalin, but it has been large. Although accurate records of possible emigration are not available, somendicate that it has not been insignificant. The natural rate of increase for Sakhalin is large, not only whenwith the USSRhole but even when compared with other parts of the Soviet Far The high birth rateesult of the resettlementarge portion of the populationreater proportion of persons in the reproductive ages than other Soviet areas, as well as the result of an emphasis on family resettlement, for which Sakhalin was suited because of the economic pattern left by theoccupants of tho southern part of the island. The death rate, which is also higher than that of other area's, mayroduct of the higher birth rate.

Tableabove, and Tablecl

Tablebelow.

Tablebelow.

Tableabove.

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11. Employment.

On thc basis of employment or.limaieu for Die USSRhole, aboutercent of the free population ie/ Employment for the entire country at this rate would beillion By applying this percentage to theof Regions XI and XII, their labor forces can be estimated to beillion andillion, respectively.

In the USSRhole, aboutercent of the laborn Region XII, where climate and topographyactivity, thc percentage is considerably less. Inapproximatelyercent of the labor force is engaged

A large proportion of the nonagricultural labornis industrial.** It is

distribute much of this industrial labor force in Region XII by industry as shown in

Taking4 population of Region XII as* employment in the industries shown inepresentsercent of the population. Additional industries for which nowere available probably would increase the proportion tooercent, whereas for the USSRholeo 7of the population is in industrial employment.

* See Appendix B. Methodology, Section The term industry as used in the USSR includesmining

*** ollows on p.c Table.bove.

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TAP SECRET

Table 4

Estimated Employment in Soviet Economic Region XII by Selected4

Fish a/ Timber b/

oa c/

Nonferrous metallurgy d/ Coal

Local andotal

0

Includes processing.

oercent not included hereby other

the figure.re employed in thein Khabarovsk; the remainder areextraction on

I.mall amount of oil and coal extractor and fabrication from

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APPENDIX A

CITIES IN SOVIET ECONOMIC REGIONS XI AND A POPULATION OF OVER

Table 5

{by Administrative Unit)

Khabarovskiy Kray

Birobidzhan

Kamenskoye

Khabarovsk

Komsomol'sk

Nikolayc vsk

Okhotsk

Pe tropavlovsk

Sovetskaya Gavan'

Sakhalin Oblast

Population

00 75

Dolinsk

Kholmsk

Korsakov

Okha

Uglegorsk

Yn

00 60

Footnote forollows on

Tabic 5

Thousands

City (by Administrative

Magadan Oblast

Primorskiy Kray

I

Krasnoyarskiy Kray

-

Continued)

City (by Administrative Unit) Amur Oblast

Kuybyshcvka-Vostochnaya

Raychikhinsk Svobodnyy

Yakutsk ASSR

Aldan

Pokrovsk

Verkhoyansk

Vilyuysk

Yakutsk

Irkutsk Oblast

Cheremkhovo Irkutsk

Usol'ye-Sibirskoye

Zima

Chita Oblast

0 40

08 60

too

0 38

Bo rzya

Chita

Khilok

Petrovsk

Sreiensk

8

5

iqt ssewer"

APPENDIX B

METHODOLOGY^

I- Population Estimates

Economic Regions XI and XII arc covered by two types of elections each of which occursear Intervalshe elections to the All-Union Supremo, whichor each district, and the elections to the Supreme Soviet of the, whichtatutory populationor each district. Before oach of these elections, election districts are listed by administrative units in decrees. Tablehows the estimated population for each administrative unit in Regions XI and XII. These estimates were obtained by multiplying the number of election districts by the statutory population of each district for the elections

Political and economic homogeneity are probably importantin the distribution of these election districts. There is also reason to believeange around the statutory population is used by those fixing the districts, if only because some districts have remained stationary over the entire period under observance here. Kray and oblast population estimates based on the larger All-Union districts are often higher than the estimates based on RSFSR election districts for thc following yearut ofistricts4. It is assumed, therefore, that the estimates based on the All-Union districts are more likely'fo be overestimated than For the same reason, it can be argued that the estimates as wall asrc more likely to have beenthan overestimated, since these estimates were also frequently smaller than the All-Union district estimates of theyear.

n

Table 6

Estimated Population of Soviet Economic Regions XJ and XII by Administrative Unit, Based on Election

/

Administrative Unit

Economic Region XI (East Siberia)

Krasnoyarskiy

Irkutsk Oblast

Buryat-Mongol ASSR

Tuva Autonomous Oblast

Chita Oblast

Economic Region XII (Far East)

Amur Oblast Khabarovskiy Kray Primorskiy Kray Sakhalin Oblast

Total

Thousands

''

400

200

350

500

350

500

500

500

500

650

0 0

04 are based on election districts forto the All-Union Supreme Soviet. Each district has. Estimates15 are based onfor delegates to the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR. Eachtatutory population.

ee Tableelow.

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'LOT SCCRRT

There is the possibility, however,eneral policy ofor underestimating districts prevails in the allocations of both types of election districts. Overestimating, for instance, may prevail in the setting up of new districts in newly open areas such as those around Norilsk and Magadan. Districts which have not been changed recently for either type of election, particularly those in the southern parts ol tne area which have older settlements, may. on the othar hand, account for underestimates of thc population.

The estimated population of Regions XI and XJIillionndillionith an estimated margin of error of plus orercent is based on the median between theindicated by tho All-Union election district allocations0 and thc RSFSR election district allocations1 forstimate, and between the All-Union election district allocations4 and the RSFSR election district allocations5 forstimate, *

Population estimates based on election districts are not more thanercent removed from the medians. ange of error of plus orercent attached to the medians is believed to be adequate to allow for the possibility of overestimation orin deriving population figures from which the medians were calculated.

The percent of error for each administrative unit will vary, being larger for thc smaller units where the addition or subtractioningle districtopulation increase ofercent or more, and smaller for the larger units.

9 census and thefigures for

these areas are prosented inor the purpose ofrend and supplying the basis for confidence in the goneralof thc election district estimates. Thc similarity between0 figures is often so close as to indicate that no over-all recount had taken place during the period.

* See Tablebove.ollows on

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/

Reported Population of Soviot Economic Regions XI and XII by Administrative Unit : 99

Unit

a/

Region XI (Eaat Siberia)

Kray Yakutsk ASSR Irkutsk Oblast Buryat-Mongol ASSR Tuva Autonomous Oblast Chita Oblast

/

/

t/

/

Region XII (Far East)

Oblast Khabarovskiy Kray Primorskiy Kray Sakhalin Oblast

/

ol

n. a7 3/

7 election districts rffve

population of

i /

in existence

-

xor sccnrr

Table 7

Reported/Population of Soviet Economic Regions XI and XII by Administrative99 (Continued)

n. Part of Chita was separated and given to Amurfter which

the reported population.

o. 7 election district estimate

p. Including Amur Oblast and Northernec footnote s,

q- 7 election district estimate is.

ussiansapanese, moat of whom igure for Sakhalin Oblast should not be included in an estimate of total population for Soviet areas, because South Sakhalin belonged to Japan and North Sakhalin is included in the figure for Khabarovakiy Kray.

t. 1 figure for Sakhalin Oblast is also

2. Urban Population.

Regular reports are sent from administrative centers to the Central Statistical Office in Moscow. These reportsreakdown of population into urban and rural categories. The figures in theseare revised by thc administrative center at intervals rangingew monthsew years. In most cases, urban population reports have been revised more often than the total population figure. Themay possibly have been done by simply moving rural districts into the urban category. The latest revised figure, however, was used where available and matched with the total population reported for that

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TOP SKfiftf-i'f

period to gel the proportion of urban to total population by administrative units. The date of revisions varied9

3. Birth and Death Rates.

Tho birth and death rates shown in the text were calculated onof monthly reports ofMoscow listing

the base population estimate, the absolute number of births, the absolute number of deaths, the absolute number of infant deaths, as well as immigration and emigration, with each item being separately reported for urban areas. Rates were obtained in the usual manner by dividing birtha and deaths by population. Since the monthly reports were not continuous, however, it was necessary to average them to obtain an annual figure. Tests were conducted to determine if the selection of monthseasonal bias, but their spread was such that they appeared tonormal" monthly average.

The resulting rates wore unusually high whether they wereeither with other countries or with the national rates of the USSR. Death rates range iromo. and birth rates fromo. These rates are to be comparedational death rate ofo,ational birth rate ofoer.

i

Certain statistical consistencies appear in the results. The expected spread between urban and rural rales was found, and the expected relation between high binh rates, high infant death rates, and high general death rates emerges.

Although the age-sex composition is not known, some inferences may be drawn from the fact that some parts of the area are still under frontier conditions and others are not much more developed. Normally in areas of this type, thereigh proportion of malesargeof both sexes in the reproductive ages. The/act that tbe USSRholeeficit of males and lhat Regions XI and XII are more balanced would account in some measureirth rate considerably highereath rate somewhat higher than the national average, because male deaths arc more frequent than lemale. It is somewhat

-

surprising, however, thai this youthful population does not exhibit lower death rates. This may in part be accounted forossible lag of the regions in participating in recent advances in public health and in partigh infant mortality.

Some doubt remains as to whether the characteristics of theof these regions are pronounced enough to produce the wide ariations from the national average which have beon noted above. This suggests the possibility of statistical inaccuracies. Thc usual weaknesses underlying^ vital rates are either (a) failure to report all births and deaths (overreporting rarely occurs) or (b) inaccuracies in the base population estimates. If underreporting existed to an appreciable extent, an effort to correct for this influence would result in even higher rates and still wider differences from the national average. It is logical to conclude, therefore, that such statistical inaccuracies as are present result mainly from errors in the population estimate, if the rates are artificially too high, it would indicate an underestimate of the population. It isto expect that if the reported population were not adjusted regularly in periods of immigration, it would lag behind the actual increase.

This hypothesis is reinforced by the fact that the rates forKhabarovsk are highest, and it is in these two administrativebase is farthest below the estimate based

on election districts. In these areas, rates based on populationfrom thedistricts could beoercent belowonreports.

On balance it would appear that some downward adjustment should be madecorrect" these rates if'a more accurate population base were available, but the regions would still be accurately characterized as ones of birth rates which are considerably higher and death rates which arc somewhat higher than in the older areas of thc USSR. Consequently, the spread between births and deaths, or natural increase, is also higher. Thishenomenon which may be expected to diminish with time as the population ages and becomes better educated.

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In thc USSRhole,ercent ol thc population is rural, and ftboutercent of the labor force is agricultural. In Region XII,ercent of the population is rural * Assuming the same ratio exists between the agricultural and the nonagricultural labor forces in the rural population, approximatelyercent of the labor force in Region XII is agricultural.

Fish Industr

planned yearly average number of employees in the fish industry4 was prepared for the entire Region XII when,rief period3 (August toll fish administrations for the region were amalgamated into one chiefhis figure includes all enterprises under the chief directorate" including canning, drying, and supply.

(b) Timber Industry.

_ Tha Khabarovsk Lc3ging Combine, Khabarovsklas. mcludas logging enterprises in Primorskiy Kray and Khabarovskiy Kray, Including the Magadan Oblast. It also included Amur3 wben th* combine was known as

it is probable that thc growthmu.was not so great as in either Khabarovskiy or Primorskiy Kray. but thelan figure which was combineda'ter Khabarovskles figure may still be somewhat of an underestimate To this combined figure was added the figure reported for Sakhalin. The following iru not included in these figures: lhe Far East Woodworking Trust, hydrolysis plants, wood chemistry plants, paper plan's, and veneer Plains. An estimatedoercent of logging operations isby other industrial ministries and local administrative

See Table.bove.

Industry.

The figure for the oil industry in Tables taken The range of the

estimateiromuu to. The upper figure was chosen for use inecause certain oil-processing operations on Sakhalin were omitted from the original estimateopping plant and supply depot, both having comparatively small employment). There are also two refineries on theone in Khabarovsk and the other in Komsomol'sk. Employment figures for these two plants were estimated on the basis9

Metallurgy.,

employment figures for the nonferrous metallurgical industry in Magadan was sent by the trade union. Total employees eligible for trade union membership should include all employees (including those in horizontally and verticallyenterprises) except guards and forced labor. Magadan is the most important area for extraction of gold and other nonferrous metals in the Far East and accounts for the greatest concentration of nonferrous metallurgical workers.

{c) Coal Industry.

Employment figures for the coal industry for either Khabarovsk or Sakhalin were not available34 as thev were for Primorskiy Kray. 01 figures reporte

were brought up-'to dateoercent) based on increases in production modified by the probable increases in productivity.

(f> Local and Fuel Industry.

employment figures for these industries were reported in terms of "listed" and "unlisted" employees,

* bove.

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APPENDIX C

GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE

Tho principal gaps in intelligence on the population and labor force of Economic Regions XJ and XII of the USSR may bo listed ae follows:

Tho dates of population estimates upon which election districts are based.

The method used by the USSR for rounding population toor an AJl-Union districtor an RSFSR election district.

The method of accounting for slave labor deathshether they are omitted or included in their place of residence.

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APPENDIX D

SOURCE REFERENCES

The List census of population in thc USSR was takenhows the figures applicable to Economic Regions XI and XII (without adjustment foroundary changes) as reported in Frank Lorimer's The Population of the Soviet Union: History and P: Lorimcr in turn cites .in English language report of the American Russian Institute entitled Information from thc Central Administration of National Accounts of Gosplan, USSR, Concerning Data of the All Union Census of Since9 figures are not basic to this report, and since Lorimerenerally recognized student of Soviet demography, his figures wore considered adequate for tho purpose of this report. For the same reasons, Theodore Shabad's prewar population figures for Sakhalin were also included in Table 6.

The current population of the USSR, in the absence of aprobably is known only to thc government of thcreports from local registries of births, deaths, andas these are applied to thc9 census data. of Regions XI and

registrydemographic information are available.

umber of them contain data for years as late2 (afterhange in thc scope of reporting makes those that continue to be availablehanges in population reported do not occur excepteriod of years. Thc one year for which thc informationhole appears most consistent Birth

and death data are actually monthly figures reporter

vith population. Urban population data followed

the same pattern as total population data but received more frequent

adjustment and consequently could be considered more accurate for

later dates.

bove.

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Information on election districts is complete5 and is assumed to reflect the best population information currently available to the government of the USSR, The element of error between the information available to the Soviet government and thc estimates based on published election districts is introduced in working back from announced districts to population. Lack of information makes it impossible to determine at what point the Soviet government considers the population of an area to have outstripped its allocated election districts and at what point it is necessary to create an additional one or more. Tho addition, therefore, of one All-Union election district may indicate an increaso of.

coverage of employment in Region XII in the industriesabics complete except for those cases wherewere necessary to bring it up to date. ** Important gaps in this field are in ferrous metallurgy, food processing, machine building, and shipbuilding, where total employment is small. Employment figures for administration, transportation, and construction were not available in usable form and probably present larger numerical gaps in this information.

The'economic geography utilised in this report to place population changes into their appropriate background may be classed as common knowledge. The information is availableumber of Russian-language geographies and in thc English language in Theodore Shabad's Geography of the USSR: egional Survey.

ollowing the classification entry and designated "Eval. , have the following signifi

*bove. ** Sec Methodology, Appendix B.

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