OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN THE USSR (RR PR-135)

Created: 3/8/1956

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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PROVISIONAL INTELLIG ICE'S

OUTPUT'OF REFINED PETHOEEUH PRODUCTS ilN THE^USSR

Product Yield Partem in Soviet Crude Oil

fGroii product yield percentage liend line?)

GAS ANO LOSS

i^tii4

*7 18 SO Si 52 4

VEAR OF OPERATION

naj,t:

OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROIEUM PRODUCTS IM THE USSR

B

(ORRU'(l)

NOTICE

Tlie data und conclusions cor.tained in this rericrr. do not necessarily represent the final position of OJiR and should be retarded au provisional only and subject to revision. Comments and daia which may be available to the user ore solicited.

CENTRALLLJ3EHCE ACr,H'JT

Office of Research and Reports

FOREWORD

The purijonif of this report in twofold: to develop awhich the output of each of the major petroleum products incan bc calculated and to apply that methodology to theinformation in order to derive caticaten of Soviet outputproducts duringperiod.

The frethodology is designed to correlate all available information pertinent to the output of petroleum products ir. the USSR: data on the Soviet supply of crude oil, synthetic oils, and nutural gaa liquids; official Soviet announcements of annual growth rotes of the output of specific petroleum products; und data on the demand for petroleum products in the USSR.

Any evaluation of the estimates derived in this report mustthe fact that the basic data usc4 are subject to rather wide ranges of error. In particular, current estlcatcs of Sovietcf crude oil, synthetic oils, and natural gaa liquids and current data on the demand for petroleua products in the USSR arc approximations und must be recognized as such. Although the estirsatcs developed In this report appear to correlate more closely with all available relevant information on tha subject than do any known corresponding estimates, they are affected by the infirmities of the basic data.

These infirmities arc apparent throughout the report, particularly in those areas where it has been necessary to derive estimates by the use of teclcilcal analogues or Judgment appraisals. The need for more complete and accurate basic data Is evident, and this report attempts to focus attention on that need. The nethodnlogy developed in this report will permit the derivation of firmer estimates OS more factual evidence necranan available.

U'-r

COMTEffTS

I.

A. Terminology and Technology

Survey Of the Problem

fields,

and Product-Yield

Append ix A, Supplementary Cata on PetrolProduct Yields,

Available

national Yields aid Political Areas

Volume-to-Weight Conversion Factors

Appendix IS. Methodology for Derivation of Estimates of Soviet

Yields of Petroleum Products.,

Available Parameters

Estimating

of Efitlifl&ttfS (1 Postwar Product

Yields

5. Outline of Numerical Calculations

row

Appendix C. World Status of the USSK in the Output

Appendix D. Gaps In Intelligence Appendix E. Source References .

Indigenous Gross Yields of Nongaseous Petroleum

Products in the USSR, by Type of

Yields of Petroleum Predicts in tho

7

3- 1 State Plan for the Output of Petroleum Products

in the USSR

I". Link Relatives for Production of Petroleum Products

in the.

Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR,

hy Type of Source,

-

U

?. Comparison of Estimates of Total Cross Yields ofProducts in the6 .

of Petroleum Balances in the USSR and the US.

7

uf Petroleum Balances in thfl USSR and the US,

ndt

- vi -

x

10. Reported Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR, Fiscal

nd Calendar

Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR,

Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR,

by Product, Fiscal

IJ. Correlation of Data on Output iuid dmuun.ptior. ofProducts Derived from Crude Oil Refining innd Calcndyr7

U6

1.9

Yields cf Crude Oil Refining Products in the USSR,

Based on the1 Soviet State1

Plan, and

Production of Synthetic Petroleua Products from

Oil Shale in the Estonian SSR,

Conversion Factors for Nongaseous Petro-

leum

Estimated Consumption of Petroleum Products in the

10. Estimated Petroleum Trade Data for International

Yields of Petroleum Products Not of Crude Oil

Origin in the USSR,

Losses and Fuel Oil Uces of Crude Oil in the USSR,

- vli -

Estimated Balances of Crude Oil In the

Estimated Balances of Gasoline ln the

Estimated Balances of Llgroine in the

Estimated BalanceB of Kcrosine Products in the USSR,

2$. Estimated Balances of Diesel Fuel in the

Estimated Balances of Lubricants in tbe

Estimated Balances of Petroleum Distillates and Lubricants

in the

Balances of Residual and Other Petroleum Products

In the USSR,

Balances of Total Nongaseous Petroleum Products

to the USSR,

Balances of Nongmipous Petroleum in the USSR,

V. . Estimated Annual Yields of Products from Crude Oil

Refining in the USSR,

of Petroleum Products in Western Europe, Selected

Years,

Annual Crude Oil Refining Capacities in the

Free World and the Sino-Soviet3

- vlii -

Charts

Following Pane

Figure 1. Product Yield Pattern ln Soviet Crude Oil' (Gross Product Yield

Percentage Trend

Figure 2. Product Yield Pattern in US Crude Oil(Gross Product Yield Percentage

- ix -

CIA/RB

(ORR

OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IH THE USSR"

Sv-Tir.'U'y

The annual output of refined petroleumn the USSR during the postwar period increased fromillion metricnto aboutillion tons Tlie Soviet output3 is estimated to have7 million tons, equal to aboutercent Of3 US outputillion tons. The prewar annual output in the USSR rangedillion tons in fiscal5 million tons Availableeriod is inadequate to provide realistic csfinates of output during those years.

There liasignificant change in the postwar puttern of petroleum product yields in the USSR. This change is shown below in the tabulation,ives product, yields64 byproduct categories. The keroeine category includes both kerosinc and equivalent end-use products. Ligroloepecial Soviet tractor fuel, the production of whicheparate product probably was discontinued

pe of Product

Gasoline and llgrolne Kerosine Diesel fuel Lubricants Residuals and other

lot al

Annual Yield

(Million

Tons)

ield

i6 Yield

* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the best judgment of ORR as

or the purposes of thisetroleum, product is one consumed or prepared for consumption as an end product, as distinguished from

This postwar pattern change Iseflection of the product percentage yields* derived from the refining of crude oil. In the USSR and the US alike, petroleum product yields are, for the most part, derived by that process. The significance of the change in the Soviet yield pattern is indicatedomparison of the estimated Soviet percentage yields with those of the US. This comparison is shown below ln tabular form. In the USSR Uic gas oil products are diesel fuels only; in the US tne gas oil products consist of distillate fuel oil and lesser quantities of diesel fuel. Ligroine has not been derivedroduct lh the US.

Yields as Percentages of Crude Oil Refining Charge

of

:: Heroine

.3

and g?

oil products

Total principal distillates

. arid lubricants

and other

a raw .source material from which other petroleum stocks are derived. Although the product is usually refined (processed) it is sometimes unrefined and may be semlrefined. etroleum stock is said to be crude If it has not been subjected to refining, und it is sometimes said to be crude even though it has been refined, if it servesaw source material for derivation of other petroleum stock.

'** Tonnages arc given in metric tons throughout this The annual operations are those which occurred in calendar-year periods, except for the fiscal operations in the USSR

* In this report, oil percentages arc giveneight basis and, unluss otherwise noted, are given as annual averages.

Ac's Soviet crude oil refining percentage yieldB of the principal distillates plus lubricants appear to be approaching those of the US. Within that category, however, the Soviet percentage yields indicute definite emphasis on the intermediate distillates (kerosine and diesel fuel)- This emphasis reflects not only the priority position given diesel fuel in the USSR during the postwar period but also the growth in the production of Jet fuels, which are included in the kerosine yields. In the US, of course, gasoline has always been the priority petroleum product. As the Sovietyields of the intermediate distillates have increased, there liasecrease in the percentage yields of residuals and other products. In that category, too, the Soviet yields are now approaching US levels-

Estimates of the output of refined petroleum products in the USSR during theperiod do notase fcr significantabout Soviet capabilities, vulnerabilities, and intentions-

. r- uf

the USSR seems to indicate that the Soviet petroleum industry is geared to meet the demands of the current cold-wai- period.

I. Introduction.

A. TerraiiiolOKy and TeclinolOi-y.

Petroleum product yields in the USSR are primarily developed as indigenous gross yields of nongaseous products. The generalized terms petroleum products and product, yields are used in this report to imply certain qualifications whici; are fundamental in any Staxistieal analysis of petroleum product yields.

With reference to the physical state of the product as ordinarily handled, natural gas and residue process gas are the only significant gaseous petroleum products within the broad intelligence Naturalf ra&^or coraaiercial importance,

* For serially numbered source references, see Appendix E. The term stock is applied in this report in the generalized

li not considered In this report. Residue process gasenerally burned as fuel gas in the proccmiing plant within which the gus is produced. Residue process gas lo chiefly represented by crude oil refinery still gasn the USSR, and refinery still gas Is generally shown in thisn unspecified portion of "refinery gM and Iobb" in the refinery balances.

For the purpose of this report the generalized term petroleum product includes not only the "xtreraely important liquid petroleum fuels and lubricating oils of common occurrence but also the relatively UBRller quantities of other liquid products (solvent distillates and specialty tars, for instance) and relatively smaller quantities of solid products such as petroleum coke, petroleua wax, asphalt, and lubricating greases. 3/

The product yields are indigenous in that they are all derived from crude source stocks (natural and synthetic) by processing operations within Soviet plants. The product yields are gross; they are the totals which include all of the stocks finally involved ln the ultimate dispositions, aa follows: (l) relatively minor quantities of nongaseous products consumed in the product processingelatively minor quantities of material loss and waste in handling and storage, comprising "distribution losses" in tlie stock balances of the report;he remaining stocks finally available for exports, storage reserves, and useful indigenous consumption external to the processing of the product.

Set product yields are the gross yields less the nongaseous products consumed in product processing. In the USSR che principal consumption of this kind is represented by residual fuel oil burned Sn the crude oil refineries. In the Soviet crude oil refineries thefuel consumption probably Is of refinery still gas, residual fuel oil, and natural gas. Also burned to furnish the necessary energy Input for these refinerieschiefly as additional fuels fired In the refinery boiler and power plantshere may be smaller quantities of other petroleum fuels such as petroleum coke and of oonpetrolcum fuels such as coal and lignite.

Net availability product yields ure the net product yicldo less the distribution losses. This net availability is important because lt includes the potential for the end-use consumption external to the product processing.

Indigenous grous yielda represent the actual achievements in production. Net yields and net availability yielda depend on practices In processing and distribution. Indigenous gross yields comprise the petroleum product yields reported ln the national annual statistics of the US, of most othor Free World countries, andn the prewarf the US8H. It is almost certain that indigenous gross yields are coapared in the annual Soviet product-yield ratios, which are officially reported In the postwar period. These reported rutloothe principal Soviet source data now available for checking the estimates of postwar yields.

Katural petroleuaas furnished the principal source stocks from which petroleum products were derived in Soviet processing plants. During the postwar period in the USSR, however, relatively small quantities of the nongaseous products have been derived from synthetic petroleua. $J These so-called synthetic oil productsrobably willore important status in the future. Historically, in the USSR as elsewhere, crude oil (that is, natural crude oil us distinguished from synthetic crude oil) j/ has been and continues to be the principal natural petroleum crude source stock. In the US and certain other Free World countries, nevertheless, considerable and increasing quantities of the nongaseous products are derived as natural gas liquids extracted frco wet crude natural gas. 8/ Prewar official statistics of the USSR record yields of the natural gasoline type g/ of natural gas liquids. At present it is unwarranted to ignore the increasing postwar potential for the yield of natural gas liquids ln the

Estimated yields of nongaseous petroleum products in the USSR, by typo of product,3 are shown to Table

B. Survey of the Problem.

The primary objective of this report is toaterial balance technique for estimating the postwar yields of petroleum products in the USSR. The estimated yields and the methodology arc subject to special qualifications as outlined below.*"

: .i: fellowe on p. 6. Sections IVore complete summary of these features. The present Introductory discussion Is directedreliminary analysis of the intelligence significance, and for this purpose the Introduction necessarily involves some of the description and

Table 1

Estimated Indigenous Gross Yields of Nongaseous Petroleum Products in the USSR, by Type of3

Type of Product

Yield a/ (Million Metric Tons)

of Total

from crude oil refining

gas liquids

oil products

.

finished products x. These yields are shown in more

detail in Table.

2k. belov.

The estimates of Soviet postwar product yields derived in this report are compatible with Other intelligence estimates to the extent that those estimates Serve to quantify ultimate source materials for the derived products and to indicate the ultimate disposition of those products. atter of verbal convenience, these values for the ultimate source materials and dispositions may be defined as the product-yield parameters.

The estimates of postwar product yields in the USSR alsoto the available official link relatives. As described more completely later in thisetrol euro-product link relativeatio relating one annual yield of the product to the corresponding yieldrevious year.

i

explanations which are also included later in the text. Sections IVre developed so that cross reference to this introductoryis not necessary for an understanding of the essentials.

The methodology developedeasonably complete system for estimating postwar yield values for the major categories of products, thus accounting also for the principal types of In addition, the technique is developedeneralized form for more or less rapid and methodical application to possible revised values of the product-yield parameters, which are constituted by the values for source materials and dispositions as stated above.

The estimates of postwar product yields in this reportreflect all errors which may be involved in the estimates of such parameters. The related methodology has specific limitations and is based on the premise that the parametric values are independently established. The methodology in iteelf actually serves to develop original yield estimates only for the products from crude oil For complete application togiven annual, operation, the methodology requires independently derived values for basicas follows: indigenous production of crude oil, indigenous yield of petroleum products other than by crude oil refiningnd with respect to all types of nongaseous petroleum stocks Indigenous consumption and international trade data.

Incidental dispositions of petroleum stocks, althoughare not considered as basic parameters. The minor dispositions consist of storage increments and the various physical material losses which normally occur in the petroleum industry. In general, theincidental dispositions cannot be quantified on the basis of direct data available for the USSR. Although the typical annual quantities of such dispositions are not relatively large enough to be controlling, the values usuallyignificantd have significant cumulative effect when use is made of the reported official link relatives-

In formulating the postwar Soviet yields in this report, the incidental losses and storage increments .xce quantified. This is done by the use of estimating factors which arc developed in the methodology. The factors are specifically derived by supplementary considerations or assumptions and are considered to be accurate enough for the purpose.

The methodology is generally applicable to revised estimates of the basic parameters when and if new datamaller range of probable error become available. Assuming that the estimated basic

ercent of all indigenous petroleum products ir. the USSR.

parameters arc not self-evidently contradictory in terms of over-all quantities, the methodology servesetailed, check of theof the estimates of source materials vith the estimates of dispositions. The methodology may be applied to derive an apparent yield pattern of crude oil refining products where the products are expressed in terms of percentages of their total. attern is subject to technical analysis frcm the point of view of reasonableness.

Although there is much flexibility in practicable crude oil refining operations, even when the quality of the crude oil and the refining facilities are established, there are certain comprehensive limits imposed on the plausible over-all product-yield pattern. Although the range of practicable yield percentages may be quite wideiven product category, the range for reasonable practice Is nevertheless within determinable limits, and the corollary of an increased yield percentage in one specific category isecreased yield percentage in another Specific category.*

Because of the wide practicable variations in the yield pattern of refined petroleua products, no theoretical, pattern can beevolved for the yields actually attainedational crude oil refining complex, specifically when the available data are confined to the quantity and quality of crude oil and the installed refining facilities. For postwar refining of crudr oil in the USSR, the known fragmentary data are here considered inadequate for direct estimates of the actual yields of crude oil refining products, snd the estimates of the basic parameters appear to provide the only adequate framework for realistic estimates of such yields. The methodology of this report leadsolution of the problem. The final form of the national product-yield pattern is derived from tho national product-demaivl pattern. The demand pattern itself in developed from the estimates of the trade balunces and the ultimate dispositions.

The methodology of this report thus Day be used tocejprehenslvc and internally consistent series of intelligence estimates, covering the entire field of the postwar Soviet yields and dispositions of nongaseous petroleua stock. In this series the coverage ranges from production through processing to ultimate Also covered are the stock trade balunces and the attendant dispositions in losses and storage Increments.

* These facte are important even though the technical nature of the aisttcr precludes nore detailed discussion in this report.

This report chows the application of the methodology to the parametric data which are currently available. The postwar yields of petroleum products in the USSR are thus calculated by major categories. Tho categories are quantified as annual yields6onforming to the link-relative ratios which have been officially published by the Soviet government.* The published product link relatives form chains of percentage values, each relating to an6 yield as the base. The applied methodology indirectly develops the buslcyields so that they are consistentonsiderable variety of other available data. As Indicoted above, ond as analyzed in more detail ln later sections of the report, this consistency is not provided by use of thefragmentary data for direct estimates ofields.

The required parametric data und three individual link relativon are not at present nvallabLj for earpiece uppllcatlon of the generalized methodology to the post wai- years. For the estimatesL-'rt yields, certain supplementary assumptions were applied in addition to the supplementary assumptions which are involved In the estimating factors. Although the pertinent details of thesearc covered in subsequent sections of this report, specific mention ls made of the fact that independent estimates are not presently available for the annual indigenous civil consumption of the "residual and other products* category. For the over-all sequence of postwar years, moreover, the basic parametric data are notavailable for the consumption of products by the armed forces and for international trade in the products.

By use of the available parameters, the reported link relatives, and the supplementary assumptions of the methodology, the postwar yields of "residuals and other products" result as differences (or remainders) in the matcriol balances. All required basicare available at the present time3 only. owever, the only missing paracetern arc alsoype that can be separately equatedaterial balance remainder, provided that the supplementary assumptions arc correct. 60 and4 the methodology of this report cannot be applied for over-all material balances.

* The derived postwar product yield patterns also conform to technical practicability.

Because the influence of the probable ranges of error in the estimated parametoru would prevail even with all parametersso that no supplementary assumptions would be required, tbe absolute product yields thus derived must depend on otherfor independent evidence of validity. 4 yield series In this report is further influencedumber of irregularities caused by the current unavailability of certain individual paramtera* Theyields in this series,/ be correlated favorably with the known prewar trends In product yields Jn the USSR and with certain independent estimates.

In view of the over-allrobable range of error well within plus or minusercent is believed to be applicable for the absolute postwar yield values derived for gasoline, llgroiae, the kerosine category, dleael fuel, and lubricants. This range comparesrobable range of error of up to plus or minusercent as establishedechnical basis, even if possible errors areIn crude oil availability when fragmentary date are used for direct estimates of the product yields. In this report the remainder yields of "residual and other products"robable range of error almost directly proportional to that ln the estimated crude oil availabilities.

In the application of the methodology, an estimating factor is used to establish the year-end storage stock value for crude oil and each separate product, generally quantifying this stock5 percent of the respective preceding annual gross yield. This storage reserveays of supply to meet average demand, which Is calculated on tha basis of the preceding annual gross yield. Because there are no known firm data revealing numerical values or ratios for the actual Soviet storage stock quantities, the storage factor is based on analogy with US practice. Thereserve supply Is considered an average for operational reserves, providing ballast for seasonal variations, plant shutdowns, and the like-

The reserve supply is by noixed factor, even though it reflects the average conditions which prevail ln the US petroleum industry. It ls generally true, however, that with less thanays of average operational reserve, serious disruptions would be very robable in the normal stock flows and over-all operations, toreays of average operational reserve would not be necessary except under abnormal conditions.

With no general quantitative distinctions possible except when extreme ratios are considered, the operational reserves may be

ivclyi'"". ll k(this

sense are those stocks which are handled primarily as reserves for extraneous emergency use. Stockpiles as thus defined uould logically consist chiefly of distillate products.

Considering thatday reserve supply represents operational reserves only and that estimates of postwar yields ofi i:!v- stimated parameters, with technical considerations, with prewar product-yield trends, and even with certain independent estimates whichegree of realism in the absolute values, it is probable that excess distillate yields are not available for the or?

In the USER the petroleum storage stocks consist ofand working reserves. Although there are available:: fortrol K storage, HO i'! T.

quantitative data are available ino the totals of the storage slock, and it is possible that the state reserves plus the so-called

i! ilial

reserves. Depending on unknown data which relate to intentionshe actual storage stock quantities, it is also possible that the state reserves comprise true stockpiles. It known only that the state reserves are subject to special goveru^ent control in regard to the quality, handling, and unrevealed Dtnlauo) quantities.

II. Product-

iest completeofficial" national statistics oi product yields and crude oil refining in the USSR appear to be those published for the fiscal. ll/ Prewar Soviet publications include partial, statistics of the same nature relative to either Russia or the USSR ir. certain earlier yearscxaniDleand Include earlier annual data on Indigenousof gasoline, llgrolne, andnd fiscal, for example. IJ./

" The fiscal year extended from October through September.ndn some instanceshe calendar-year basis was adopted.

11

The "official" statistical record of data on annual petroleum product yields and crude oil refining in the USSR is effectively complete fornd for the years0nd nearly complete but preliminary equivalent statistics are includedit/ Statistics0 which are generally compatible with those in this record may be developed by engineering analysis of the yield duta reported in another Soviet publication, and the9 calendar-year statistics may be similarly developed from the sane/ Another Soviet publication shows25 yield data in less detail; these yields are also generally compatible with the data developed in the "official" record. Tlie same publication gives corresponding yield statistics6 and shows for annual indigenous consumption of certain distillate products*26 data which arewith the/ Irtdigmicus consumption data or. the same distillate products were reported early7orecast7 apparently on an authoritative basis with respect to state plans, rjj

A complete sequence of annual petroleum product yields ir. the has been published, covering the fiscalnd the calendar years This sequencethe official statistical recordnd for subsequent yearsorrelation and projection of the pertinent yield data published by the Soviet press. Hence the published sequence may be considered sufficiently authoritative for intelligence purposes. An independent intelligence estimate is also availableource reference. Tills referenceovietf petroleum products6 which are compatible with those given in the published

Reported:. inni: Z- . :.

7 are shown in The fiscalnd the calendar2 are selected because they were the first and last years of the First Five Year Plan. The calendar67 ore selected because they were the last two years of thesequence and of the Second Five Year Plan. 6 yields are somewhat more firmly substantiated by Soviet press data timn. are7 yields.

* Gasoline, ligroine, and kerosine. ** omparative summary of the data in the various sources cited, see Appendix A,elow. ollows or.

Table 2

Yields of Petroleum Products7

Thousand Metric Tont

Calendar Year

oil refining

Straight-run gasoline Thermal cracked gasoline

Total refined gasoline

LiKcrosine Diesel fuel Lubricants

Residual and other products

1

Refining gas and loss

Crude oil refinery charge

Crude oil exports

Other crude oil disposition c/

Total crude oil production

nongaseous products

Crude oil refining gasoline

Total gasoline Other crude oil refining pro-ducts

Total products

'-I'd

0

I

7U6

9

r: 1

-

US.

732

b/

Table 2

Reported Yields of Petroleum ProductB in the USSR7 (Continued)

Thousand Metric Tons

1 t

Y, .ir

Year

gas and loss

refinery gas Waste and other stock

J13L *

As shown hern, Use product category yield totols are developedfrom the source report data by applying technical information and Judgment in order to coxMne the separately reported yield values fcr the individual rovides further summary data for more direct correlation with the separately reported

Second Five Year Plan quotes2 the following(in thousands of metric tons) which are the same anfigures shown here: 9 for total0 for lubricating oil (tha yieldora value ofor grouses ln the table). This Flan,shows tlw2 yields which do not seem to be onbasis uu tlie later Soviet orfor "motoror marutT

obviously consisted of "crude oil storage increment,"use as residualnd "crude oil loss." The latteroil dispositions" are Indicated to have been considerableUSSR during the prewar period. The principal "residualof unrefined crude oil is Identified as fuel oil burned24/

Included inore comprehensive siumnary for the USSR in the prewar period, showing the currently available numerical data on petroleum product yields and crude oil refining.

III. Product Yields,

There appear to be no published Soviet source data whichuantitative values for Soviet yields of petroleum products obtained

viet

nly available significant published or unpublishedwhich relate to theyields are in

Soviet 3tate Plan Because of World War II, the1 State Plan was not applied in practice. l State Plan for the output of petroleum products in the USSR Is shown in Table 3.

the prewar Soviet Fivens, unrealistic goals sometimes were set. The goal for Indigenous production of crude oil was setillion tonehe iact year of the Second Five Year

nd5 million tonshe year that was tothe Third Five Year Plan. World War II prevented fulfillment

of the Third Five Year Plan, 2J/ of course. The actual Indigenous

production of crude oil in the USSR7 la estimated to have been

In the Soviet Annual State Plans generally, however, andin the postwar Five Year State Plans, apparent results have indicated reasonable accounting for Sovietgg/ hence the1 Plan may be assumed lo be reasonably indicative of the yield pattern of petroleum productshe year before the USSR was invaded by Nazi forces.

An estimate of the Soviet yields from crude oil refininghows results that conform reasonobly well with wViat might be inferred from1 Plan." Another source givesillion tons for tbe yield of gasoline obtained by crude oil refining in the USSRjy but this yield considerably exceeds any yield indicated bylan. S atotfstlcalives estimates of the0 yields of petroleum products in the USSR. These3

*ollows on

See Appendix A,elow.

-

Table 3

State Plan for the Output of Petroleum Products in the USSB a/

(Thousand Metric Tons)

Charge (Percent of Total)

Oil Production (Percent of Total)

oil refining

.

Thermal cracked gasoline b/

refined gasoline

iesel fuel c/ Residual fuel oil d/ Lubricants, miscellaneous

products, refining gas

and loss e/

9

crude oil refinery charge

indigenous crude oil

T; tl ej

Tot'Sl crude oil production

Product-yield figures refer lo indigenous gross product yields.

percent of the Plan cracking charge value (in Tlie thermal cracking yields in the USSR8 it. ih.: . T^Oi i ni <_

4 percent Is given as what, appears to be the Soviet national average during theonths of the

-

Table 3

tHte Plan Tor the Output of Petroleum Products In the USSR a/

(Continued)

Shown oa Plan value (in thousand metric tons)or tvoc diesel fuellan valueor motor (heavy diesel) fuel.

as "fuel raazut" In the Plan.

value derived hereifference. The Plan does notthe difference.

yields" correspond, within limits, with7 patternnd the estimates presumably were based or.

For theperiod in the USSR the available Information is considered inadequateorrelated estimate of the annual yields of petroleumeliable estimate of this sort would do much toward solving the problem of estimating the related postwar yields, but postwar yields can be catlmated within reasonable limits of certainty by other methodologies.

IV. Product.

Soviet data published earlythe ratios or7 yields of certain petroleumo the6 yields. Quantitative yields were not given. This publication of rotioo was the first of four, the ones covering subsequent years following the same pattern as the first giving the ratio of each annual yield to its counterpart in the preceding year and not mentioning the quantitative yield of any product. Tt ls significant that three annual ratios wore omitted in the over-all. published system of the aeries. These published ratios are representative of

The estimated yields are ouramarized in Tableelow. ** bove.

ummarizes tlie more Important Soviet petroleum product-yield data which are available- See also Tableelow.

Crude oil, gasoline, kerosine, and diesel fuel.

-

factors that are sometimes called link relatives. Effectivelyin the general instance ofhain of link relatives is the quantitative banc yield in the most remote your to which the factors apply. Tho link relatives constitute the only significant Soviet source data applicable as an official check on estimates of postwar petroleum product yields. The link relatlveo for production of petroleum products in the USSRU are shown in TableThe table footnotes outline the assumptions made to establish values for the three annual factors which were unreported.

In addition to the published link relatives for Soviet postvar petroleum product yields, there arc also other data bearing on such yields. These data are often fragmentary ard inconsistent, and they vary widely in usefulness. The intelligence problem Is to evaluate the available data and to develop estimates of postwar petroleum product yields which can be reasonably well correlated with the following factore: (l) the Official linkhe most realistic estimates of the availability of the principal crude oil source stocks from which the product* arehe most realistic estimates of the actual concurrent consumption of the products, considering the export-Import balances;he best information available on product-yield trends in the past.

If theproduct yields were quantified and the link relatives applied, other postwar annual Soviet yields could be calculated for gasoline, kerosine, and diesel fuel. Such calculations arc sensitive, of course,ariation in airy'one link-relative value. The link relatives are multiplied together ir. successive applications,ariation in one link-relative value gives risereatervariation ln the sequence- Hence the assumptions are very laportent in regard to the three unreported link relatives. By use of such assumptions as shown in Table the results may be considered to be reasonably valid only insofar aa it is possibleheck the results with other Information, deductions, or Inferences.

There are four distinct phasesirect analytical approach to the problem of estimating the postwar Soviet annual petroleum product yields! derivation of estimates forields;application of the link relatives to derive the subsequent annual yields of gasoline, kerosine, and dieselerivation of estimates for the other postwar annual yields of the products In

* ollows or.

Table 4

Link Relatives for Production oi' Petroleum Products in the USSR*

Type ol' Product

Year

b/

cj

-

67

h/

d/

y

j7

Fuel

2 d/

44

Production refers to indigenous gross yields. Each value relates to production In the preceding year. All valuco ore reported, unless otliervlse indicated.

S: jf

d. Assumed value. The assumption is that the missing value probably spproxlasted the eorrcoponding value reported in the previous year, the missing value being unity if the previous reportedear unity. Arbitrary assignment of unity is often practiced in similar Instances of missing link relatives, the assumption being that the USSR would notink relative unless the factor exceeded unit value so as to be an Index of favorable progress. On the other hand, it is also possible that certain link relatives may bc deliberately cc-iceolod to break the sequence of factors available for foreign intelligence analysis. The conventional unit value is not here assigned to the missing "diesel fuel" link relatives, inasmuch asudden decrease in the ratio would not be consistent with estimated civil

Table k

Link Relatives for Production of Petroleum Product, in the USSR a/

(Continued)

consumption as elsewhere discussed In thia report and would furthermore Introduce unexplained depressions in the "diesel fuel" percentage trend lino of Figureollowingelow. Trialwere actually made, assuming both of tho Biasing "diesel fuel" link relatives toalue of one; serious internal inconsistencies resulted by use

of these arbitrary unit values.

e.

j. *J

the otlier three principal categories (ligrolne, lubricants, und residual and othernd (t) development of an independent correlation to check the resulting estimated yieldaecentor examplehis would nerve to check the assumptions applied ln regard to the unreported link relatives.

The postwar petroleum product yields In the USSR have continued to be derived for the most part, by crude oil refining. Even with the annual crude oil chargeational refining complex completely known, however, many Independent data also muat be knowny probable pattern* of the refinery product yields can be iven average type of crude oil for processing and

* As used in thia report, the term product pattern is specifically defined as the relationship determined by tlsc percentages of different products, or of different categories of products, referred

to the total of such products.

-

iven ovcr-oll system of installed refining equipment which is completely defined from the technological point of view, the product-yield pattern ofefinery complex can he varied practicably and efficiently within very wide limits.

The technique of analogy is of little practical use in estimating the probable product-yield pattern inefinery complex, even when the analogy Is correlated with established technological In the US and the USSR alike, for example, the major portions of the indigenously consumed products are derived by indigenous crude oil refining, and the major portions of products from indigenous crude oil. refining are indigenously consumed. Yet, as shown in Tablethere was marked dissimilarity in the crude oil refining product-yield patterns in the^nd wide dissimilarity probably continued in the postwar period.**

The total annual product yields2 in the US have ranged up torimes those in the USSR. In pattern as well, as quantities, it ls evident that the two countries differ in product consumption. The pattern difference does not arise from technological differences at the source of supply. 2ased on technological and engineering principles,heoretical yield pattern for crude oil refining products for the USSR This estimate applied the US yield pattern to the installed Soviet refining equipment and the average Soviet crude oil insofar as pertinent data were available. Although the0 theoretical yield pattern for the USSR thus differed from that of the US only on the busis of technology, necessarilyhe pattern still differed widely from the most realistic estimates of0 Soviet consumption of petroleum products in the civil and mililaiy

2 estimate developed values for Soviet yields of crude oil refining productspplying certain assumptionsimited correlation with thel State Plan of the USSR. The reported link relatives were applied to6 base yields by use of certain other assumptions, and estimates were derived for the annual Soviet yields of crude oil refining productsJ Here again the estimated annual Soviet yields are not compatible with the estimates of urinual indigenous productut the

* elow.

he comparison between the US and the Soviet product-yield patterns is also shown graphically inndollowing See Appendix A,elow.

-

I

l

estimated yieldsay be correlated ln most respects with the theoretical yield pattern

An estimate of Soviet yields of crude oil refining products/ seems to be based on little more than speculation.

There appears toirmer basis for direct estimates of the postwar civil consumption of petroleum distillates and lubricants In the USSR* than there is for direct estimates of tho indigenous gross yleldo of such products. Factors affecting the estimates of consumption of these products are not so variable as are most of the factors arfcctlng estimates of the yields from crude oil refining. Subutontlnl data are available for the extent and types of the civil operations which involve consumption of petroJeura dintillateo and lubricants. Although the civil consumption of residual fuel oil and other reslduul products seems to be affected by too many uncertain factum to permit realistic direct quantitative estimates, an adequate estimate la available for the postwar civil consumption of petroleum dislilloleo and lubricants. This estimate was derivedithout reference to estimates of indigenous groas yields, 'gj

Ar. adequate estimate ls also available for the postwar annual production of crude oil in the USSR. The estimate is essentially within the limits indicated by official Soviet reports. The samecovers the probable postwar annual potential yields of natural gas liquids in the USSR. 5j/

The most realistic approach to estimates of Soviet gross product yields ln the postwar period appears to be one which ia consistent with the estimates of crude oil production, the yields of natural gas liquids, and civil consumption. Independent estimates arefor the postwar annual gross yields of synthetic oil products in the USSR."- Assuming that estimates arc also available for the annual consumptions of petroleum distillates and lubricants directly utilized by the Soviet armed forces and for the annual import-export bulanecs ln crude oil and petroleum products, the problem la essentially reduced to that of estimating the indigenous gross yields derived by crude oil refining-

" iscussion of civil"consumption of lubricants, see Appendix fi, U, b. See Appendix B.

- 22 -

The method used here consists of deriving estimates for Indigenous gross product yields in at least one postwar year so that indigenous net availability yields" are in balance with the total indigenous product consumptionfter accounting for storage increments and the import-export balances. Both the gross yields and the indigenous civil consumption of the "residual and other products" result by difference. The complete annual petroleum stock balance specifically involves the application of constant estimating factors which can be evaluatedeasonable probability range for the following: (l) use Of unrefined crude oilrude oil handlingrude Oil storageefining gas andlosses in petroleum products;torage increments for the petroleum products. Tlie complete stock balance is otherwise based entirely on the independently estimated quantities as

irect estimate of all petroleum product yielda in the USSRostwar year, available information is adequate onlyor this year alone are there simultaneously available the realistic and Independent estimates necessary lo derive total indigenousof the principal, distillates and lubricants and the national import-export balances In crude oil and petroleum products. Soviet gross product yields for other postwar years are estimated by the use of the reported link relatives and the assumed constant estimating

The estimated yields of petroleum products in the USSR, by type of source,re shown in* The

* This terminology is defined in the Introduction-** For methodology, see Technical considerations show that the product-yield patterns derived fcr crude oil refining are reasonable and are in correlation with the available data on average crude oil quality and installed refining facilities in the USSR. These considerations cannot be Summarized properlyontechnical report. The special feature in point la the increase in relative yields of diesel fuel as discussed in Part V.

*** ollows on* Continued cn

-

ssls 3

]

i| J

1

1

1

!

I

1

i III! II

32I

total yielda of petroleum products In the USSRrc shown in The over-all check on the apparent reasonableness of the estimates is on the basis of the yields developed6 and is as discussed below.

World War II damage to Soviet crude oil production andwas officially reported to have been repaired duringof the Fourth Five Year. Thewas completed in the latter part of the Ittherefore, that Soviet refining facilities aspcruting at the Immediate prewar level of output,product pattern. An index to this prewar level is inPlan.** The6 operating level probably

would more nearly approach that of an earlier prewar year such us

. :iof yi

In considering the probable Soviet fields oft should be noted that US petroleum refining engineerswere in the USSR as late as the fall hese representatives of US companies were concerned witharrangements sometimes called the Houdry lend-Lease

be installed in the

The lloudry projects term natedequence of /ents which Degar.9 wherein major crude oil refining facilities were supplied to the USSR by major US petroleum refinery engineering and construction companies. The IIS companies either installed the facilities or supervised the construction, and usually they had qualified technical

i. .

Beginn he US companies furnished oretimes erected the earliest commercial thermal cracking units In the USSR. Winkler-Koch units were the earliest and the most enrar^r. of the iriodern types to bc furnished. , refining equipment furnished and installed by US companies Consisted of the first catalytic refining facilities to be constructed in the USSR. These facilities wereof units for catalytic polymerization and codimer

ollows on See Tablebove. Sec Tablebove.

Table 6

Estimated Total Yields of Petroleum Products ir. the 'JSSR

mill on Metric Tons

Year

Type cf Product

and liquefied petroleum gases

0

fuel

and other products b/

products b/

re rourxiedf yields thown ir. Tabicbove, b. CruCe oil usedesidual product is included here, lt is not included in prewar figures (sec Tablebove, andecause of lack of data.

.

eriod,-lb of special Importance In this report. It ls probable that the US petroleum industry gathered much specificabout the refining operations and product yields in the USSH during that period, gy

Aa noted in Section III of this report, the American Statistical Handbook gives estimates of indigenous gross petroleum product yields in the USSR0 These estimates assume06 annual product-yield patterns to be Identical and presumably were derived on the basis of this assumption and dato generally available in the petroleum

A comparison of estimates of total gross yields ofin the USSR6 Is shown in Tablecorrespondence of data is Indicated In Tahle 7in product-yield patterns und sometimes ln

v- Trends and Product-Yield Patterns.

rends nnd yield patterns for Soviet crudeoperationu are shown inInformation

for US crude oil refining operations, based on published petroleum statistics, is shown in The US distillate-lubricant yield line is reproduced ir.or comparison. ra pari ton of petroleum balances in the USSR and the US2 andIs shown tn" oopsrJtton of petroleum balances In the USSR and the US6hown in

Pemoline has continued to be the most important type of petroleum stock in the US, and the refining operations are generally directed toward improved quality in an optimum yield of gasoline. The major emphasis in the USSR lias been or. kerosine yield, and, in the more recent postwar years, on diesel fuel. Differences In quality of the average crude oil tn the two countries partially account for the difference in emphasis.

ollows on

The percentages correspond to quantitative data given ln the

appciidixes.

Followingollows onollows on

- 23 -

O 0.

I tu a

3 :

, :

- i

. -

A Ogl

K

.

Tn the USSR the indigenous crude oils arc predominantly of the so-called nnphthene base types, containing much asphalt base und even aromatic base The Soviet crude oils contain little paraffin bane stocks, but the indigenous US crude oils are mostly of paraffin buse and mixed base. In nontechnical terms tide means that average Soviet crude oils in comparison with US crude oils,uch smaller percentage of straight-run gasoline, although the average Soviet virgin gasoline would bc good straight-run aviation gaa base stock because of its content of naphthenesrobable equal percentage of potential straight-run kerosine, if this potential kcrosine cut Is tukenroduct;arger percentage of virgin heavy gas oil which is above the usual diesel fuel boiling range, even assuming that such gos oil had quality suitable for diesel fuel use (naphthenic stock generally has low cetane rating).

In the Soviet crude oils the potential naphthenic'virgin gas 'Oils would comprise good catalytic cracking charge stock, giving large relative yields of high-quality gasolines with high-octane aviation gas base stock There is evidence to indicate, however, that catalytic cracking has no high priority status ln the USSR, 6g/ even though some new catalytic cracking plants. In addition to the World War II Koundryrobably have been constructed ln the USSR. hows that the trend has been to use cracking, probably thermal crucklng in major part toarger percentage of total diesel fuel withoderate Increase in the yield of total gasoline (gasoline and ligroinc). It Is indicated that Heroine will no longer be obtainedroduct/

nd the reported link relatives shown in Tablearge and steady increase in the Soviet yields of total diesel fuel Increased percentage yield in tlx; gas oil products in the US is indicated In Figure 2. Ir. the US the gas oil productsof dlcoel fuel and distillate fuel oil for end use as such (seeat the relative proportion of diesel fuel has been increasing ln therom9 percent of the gas oil products71 percent

hows that in the relative yield of principul distillates plus lubricants, the yield pattern for crude oil refining products in the USSR is approaching that of the US nc lso shows

* bove-** Pp-ndespectively, below.

-

that there hasorresponding relative decrease in the yield of' "residual and other products" in the USSR. Residual fuel oil, or mazut, is considered toaluable product In the USSR, however, and tlie relative yield of that product probably will not be reduced

Ttils report is not primarily concerned with the yield of aviation engine fuels in the USSR; the aviation gasoline yield is included ac an unspecified portion of total gasoline, ond the Jet fuel yield is included as an unspecified portion of total kcrosine.

.rce

at.ion tha"

Kith specific consideration of aviation engine fuels excluded, the estimated postwar product yields are not particularly indicative of capabilities, vulnerabilities, and intentions. The physicalare those which are generally well established Tor petroleum industry operations. In the manufacture of petroleum products the USSR appears to liavc the capability to continue with the product-yield pattern as Indicated ln the estimates. Acc the USSR isn have aooroached what voufll be the practicable limit In the

There is no indl-

iwv the USSH plans to place more emphasis on the relative yield of gasoline. The present emphasis on increased yield of diesel fuel probably will continueracticable optimum is attained. There Is no indication of plans for extensive stockpiling ofproducts In the USSR. The present pattern of product consumption appears to approximate tho present pattern of product yields with only normal annual storage Increments involved. Stockpiling of products probably would be centered in distillates, and large increases in such stockpiling are not Indicated.

flls SfcrKIs

I5 M

|

-I

5l i

s

! i

5

J

" "

-

:

i ifi

a Hi is-

et iii

MI

s 3j

x a

SuTP^HK.-fXAFY DATA ON rKTOOLKUM

1. Available Rata.

As summarized In Section II, official Soviet reportsirm basis forields of petroleum products in the USSR, for the earlier part of this period the official reports arc relatively complete. owever, the reports have been rare andand conclusive information on product yields has been lacking in other available sources.

A condensed suimary of information on yields of petroleum products8 and later years Is given infections III and IV. Thisfollows the usual pattern, becoming Increasingly meager and more uncertain the later the year. From the quantitative point of view, Soviet reports of the yields ln the later years appear to be restricted to fragments of two types. Although these fragments show no absolute quantities for the actual product yields derived in Soviet practice, each type has some degree of usefulness for deductions, inferences, and counterchecks- One type of fragment is contained In the1 Soviet Staterobably applicable to the iBedlate prewar period. The other type consists of the linkhich have been published annually aid which relate to the postwar period.

The data on yields of Soviet petroled Jj/ are especially equivocal for the World War II years, particularly so for petroleum product As noted in 3ection III, available Information is Inadequate for an over-all correlated estimate of Soviet petroleum product yields85 Although reasonably realistic estimates of the yields nay be derived for the earlier part of thla periodefore the full Impact of World War II on thehe uncertainty of the World War II yieldsorrelation of little practical use.

* See Tablebove. See Tablebove. MM Kstimetes of the World War II production of Soviet indigenous crude oil arc includedecently published An estimate of8 yields is shown In Table-bove, and estlnates of the yields9 crude oil refining are shown inelow.

-

APPENDIX A

SUPPLEMENTARY DATA OH PETROLEUM PSODUCT

1. Available Data.

As summarized in Section II, official Soviet reportsirm basis forields of petroleum products in the USSR. For the earlier part of this period the official reports are relatively complete. owever, the reports have been rare andand conclusive information on product yields has been Jacking in Other available sources.

A condensed summary of information on yields of petroleum products8 and later years isections III and IV. Tills lirfor-mation follows the usual pattern, becking increasingly meager and more uncertain the later the year. From the quantitative point of view, soviet reports of ths yields in the later years appear to be restl-ictcd to frapjnents of two types. Altnougl* these fragments show no absolute quantities for the actual product yields derived in Soviet practice, each type hus some degree of usefulness for deductions, inferences, and counterchecks. One type of fragment is contained in the1 Soviet Staterobably applicable to the immediate prewar period. The other type consists of the linkhich have been published annually and which relate to the postwar period.

The data on yields of Sovietrc especially equivocal for the World War II years, particularly so for petroleum product As noted In Section III, available information is inadequate for an over-all correlated estimate of Soviet petroleum product yieldsB Although reasonably realistic estimates 0) the rids may be derived ror the earlier part of this periodefore the full impact of World War II on thelie uncertainty of the World War II yieldsorrelation of little practical use-

* See Tablebove. ** See Table Estimates of the World War II production of Soviet indigenous crude oil are Includedecently publishedstimate of8 yields is shown in Tablebove, and estimates of the yields9 crude oil refining are shown inelow.

-

TV-li-:; ovidc aary u'l' Lhe yields

product in the USSR for fiscalnd the Tablesndhow the national yieldmajor categories of products- These yield patterns arein estimutiiig corresponding postwar yields. ecord, showing the direct correlation with theas the basis ofndnd indicating

the methodology employed tootals for major categories of products in Tables

Soviet reports other than those used as the basis ofndrc complete and specific enough to be important in estimating Soviet petroleum product yields9 These reports sometimes contain data which seem to contradict that shown in Actually, the contradictions are more apparent thanorrelation of the datahe various sources is shown in The table willseful purpose if confusion should arise in the future because cf apparent contradictions in the Soviet reports. Tableutlines not only the direct comparisons, but also the methodologies by which the major differences muy be explainedonfounding of terms and as discrepancies in the reporting of the product categories.

*orrelation of the data in Sections III and TV and shows the basis of certain generalized statements in the text.

2. Rational Yields and Political. Areas.

The Soviet petroleum yields developed In this report include only the production within the political boundaries of the USSR in the given year. Relatively minor quantities of petroleum products were obtained, however, ineriod from ureas which were not within tlie USSR before the close of World War II Estonia (shale oil products) end the Carpathian Polish sector (crude oil refining products). The petroleum product yields In these areas are excluded from Soviet totals for the prewar and wartime periods.

*ndollow onespectively, below.

ableollows on Tableollows on

- JO -

Data on the ccaparatively mall yielda of petroleum products obtained in the Carpathian Polish crude oU refineries before the areaart of the USSR arc not sv.ilable. By virtue of its status as the principal contributor to the postwar Soviet yields of the shale-oil type of synthetic oil products, Estonia is of some importance. Estimates of the postwar synthetic oil product yields in the Estonian SSR are based, to some extent, on corresponding yields in prewar Estonia. eries of the prewar yields of petroleum products ln Estonia is shown ir.*

3. eip;ht Conversion Factors..

With the exception of certain source reports,all quantities given in this report are stated In sources ln terms of weight, lhe volumc-to-weight conversion factors applied to the volume data In the two reports mentioned are shown in*

Tableollows on p.

ablebove, and Table lB, p. bo, below. Table l6 follows on

-

2 I

inn 11

3

M II a

:

ii

i I

ll a.

1 f

a.

ii.

s

1 *

61;

r

aa- 3

g3 a

13 a

3 8 8

1

!

|| ni |

1 I 1 I

i

ll If

liiUIsi

Ijiiijjiijii.i

SS S

SSSHE S SSEESS EE t

Estimated Yields of Crude Oil Refining Products in the USSR Based on the1 Soviet State1 Plan,6

Plan

c/

Tons)

Ton;;)

Tons)

gasoline

cracked gasoline

d/

c/

d/

refined gasoline

fuel

oil

and other products

net nongaseous

B

consumption b/

crude oil refinery

Footnotes for Tableollow on

Table 14

Estimated Yields of Crude Oil Refining Products in the USSR Based on the1 Soviet State Plan1 Plan,6 (Continued)

lan y

Percent

Percent

Quantity

(Thousand

Metric Tons)

Quantity (Thousand Metric Tons)

-,-

960

Quantity (Thousand Metric Tons]

Type diesel fuel

Motor (heavy diesel fuel)

a^ n Table lO.'j Seeootnote e,bove.

Tablebove, ana Section III,bove.

6 yields developed in an Air Force Uoriclng Paper, are included here forvith the estimated yields of crude oil refining products in the present report (seebove; Tablebove; and, below). The two sets of estimatedarc derived by consistent and completely developed analyses and serve to illustrutewhich result from the differences in the basic assumptions. 9ppear to be as realistic as possible, in view of the limited intelligence available.

percent of the thermal cracking charge valueons.

percent of the thermal cracking charge value0 tons-

-

Table 15

Estimated Production of Synthetic Petroleum Products from Oil Shale In the Eatonlan SSR

Crudell Hecuvery and Bef inlm

hale Oli. Scflr.ing

Oil

Oil

cj

(Thousand

Retorted

Vernal

To.il)

Shale

Tons)

Shale

.

y

d/

Footnote* for Tableollow on

Table 15

Estimated Production of Synthetic Petroleum Products from Oil Shale ir. the Estor-ian SSR a/

Continued)

Crude Shale Oil Recoveryufinufl

Shale Oil

Recovery cj (Thousand

Metric Tons!

6

d/

tj

y

l tj

j .

Crude Shale Oil

Recovery

Retorted

Tons)

Shale

Tone)

Shale

In this report, crude shale oil and total shale oil products arc consloi-redrefining gas and loss la crude shale oil processirjj isiigi=le ir.the relatively small yields of crude shale oil. Product-yield figures refer toproduct

Some of the

o.

d. Negligible differences are shovn in the erode shale oil values reported, differences are evidently the result of rounding.

-

Table 15

Estimated Production of Synthetic Petroleum Products from Oil Shale in the Estonian SSR a/

Continued)

e. German exploitation during Nazi occupation began in1 and continued until the Soviet forces expelled the Germans German plansJ involved the following anticipated yields in crude shale oil refining:

VolumeCrude Shale Oi)

Tractor fuel

Diesel fuel (middle

Fuel oil (heating

Refining gas andshale oil refinery

ons for the first half of the year before German occupation,0 tons for the latter half of the year under German exploitation-

data in this year after Septemberre missing.

-

c>ix

cm IWjW^jQH _or ESTIMATES

o? soviKT1/ i w racburrs"'

eneral.

The introduction nnd text of thU reporteneralused. The text of thil appendixables give the prln-

cluoi details. The footnotes to these tables outline thend applications of the methodology.

2. Available Faraneters.

Tablesecord of the parametric values available for the. Tablehows the estimated indigenous consumption of petroleum products, and Table l8 shows tho

SmTiSm*trHd*etroleum products by the USSR. Tabichows estimated Indigenous yields of petroleumot of crude-oil origin. (Estimated indigenous yields or

inIein BhoWn

3- Estimating Factors.

Handling Losses and Directs Petroleum Products

of Unrefinedt

Before World Mar II, open Soviet sources provided someon Soviet crude-oil handling losses and also on the Soviet practice of making direct use of crude oil and toppeds

wPMtlvtlyj elow.

Topped crude is the long residue or aeairefined crude oil which remains when the lower boiling fractions, generally consisting of gasoline and kerosine, are removed by atralght-run distillation.

-

petroltub product!. Tableshows reported losses and fuel oil uses of crude oil io the-

In the past the USSR often used open-pit excavations for the storage of crude oil and nonvolatile petroleus products, chiefly fuel7 Soviet sources criticlre the use of such pits on the grounds of excessive evaporation losses and also on the grounds of seepage losses when the vails of the pits are not of Impervious natural rock nnd are not lined or treated. Use of the pits lu reported to be officially prohibited now except by grant of special/

Only fragmentary and qualitative data, as outlined above, are available for the looses and direct petroleum-product uses of crude oil in the USSR. In the USypes of crude oil dispositions together have ranged fromercent toercent of total nev supply."*

Estimating factors are arbitar*iy applied to the postwar Soviet data as follows: ercent for crude oil handling lossesercent for direct petroleum-product use of crude oil, the base on which these percentages are applied being the indigenous production of crude oil because the apparent values for imports of crude oil are relatively Insignificant. Two principal assumptions arc involved: (l) that Soviet handling Is accompanied by considerable extraneous crude oil evaporation loss, whereas this sort of loss Is effectively nil in US practice,hat in order to obtain relatively higher yields of the more valuable refined petroleum products, the USSR has greatlyhe percentage of unrefined crude oil used directly as petroleua

* Tabicollows on See Tableootnote b,bove, for the basis or the US (lava. Thew supply is the sum of indigenous crude oilplus crude oil imports.

Cccipnred with the reported prewar level (seeelow). Continued or.

-

Table 18

Estimated Petroleua Trade Data for International Trade in Crude Oil aad Petroleua Products

by the

Thousand Metric Tons

Kcrosine.

Trade, arii Year Imports b/

8

4

Diesel Lubricating and Other

4l6

513

588

2

662

0

* Footnotes for Tableollow on

Oil

0 0

J

200

BOO

c

0 0

0

0

/

Table 18

Estimated Petroleum Trade Data for International Trade in Crude Gil and Petroleum Products

by the USSH a/Continued)

Thousand Metric Tonn

Diesel Lubricating and Ot'r*r Nongaseous and fear Ga-oline ?Cerosir.? Oil mi

Exports (Continued)

35* 57 e/

tu Data for the, are from source lie/. There is no available evidence that any crude oil was importedor exported. Data on imports of petroleum products are not available Data on exports of petroleum products are not available-

oa imports of petroleum productsre from/ and are given See Appendix A,or volume/veight conversion factors.

-

Urn ]

-mm

hml i!

8 >

Pill

3

ml

r

mi

pip i; ?ra Mil1 ff iii,

Stih. 7

Reported Losses and Fuel Oil Uses of Crude Oil ir. the USSR

nd.1

Indigenous Production

of Crude Oil a/ (Thousand Metric Tons)

or Use Fraction

(Percent of Indigenous- .

Metric Tons'

Indigenous production cf crudenrefined crude oil burned as fuel oil 1/

production of crude oil Unrefined crude oil burned as fuel oilopped crude oil burned as fuel oil

O

3-3

See Tablebove, and> above.

quantity presucably is included inotalhown for other crudein

Quantity presucably is included in the totalhovr. for theyield of residual and other products in Because of the large percentagesuch total, the total is obviously composed largely of the sealrefined crude oil.

-

Table 20

Reported Losses and Fuel Oil Uses of Crude Oile^ (Continued)

eiluj/Inferred in the source to be extraneous and largely due to evaporation and needless waste. Apparently does not include the operational losses in crude oil storage, field treating, and other noraal handling. The source states that the evaporation loss is one cause of low-percentage yields of straight-run gasoline in refining.

f ll**/ The source states that this loss was8 percent of the concurrent yieldgasoline, although the source does not directly quantify the straight-run According to the source, the inferred yield is, comparedyield value shownn Tafcle

g. This quantity is presumably include! ir. the totalu9>COC shown forcrude oilin

h- / Probably includes the physical losses incurred ir. the haj-.di-.ng of refir.ed products as well as crude oil. This status is somewhat ambiguously developed In the source- These looses are not presently considered toart of crude-oil-handlif^ losses, sir.ee they appear to bc partly refinine gas and loss and partly product distribution losses.

1. / As shown in the source, this is equivalent to2 percent of the concurrent total gasoline yield valueOO which is also shovr. in the source (see, above). Tableotal gasoline yield valuesee Tables. J. This quantity is presumably included in the total0 shown for the crude-oil-refining yield of residual and other products In The other comments in footnote d, above, are applicable.

k. The total values quoted ir. onehereas the value of SCO is quoted ir. another source with inference that the use was ln general industry exclusive of the petroleum industry/ The use breakdown is therefore assumed as shown. l'.Q/ The valueresumably is included in the totalhown for other crude oil disposition ir.. / The use as reported is inferred to have beer, in the petroleua industry only. The source complains thathird of the average material thus burned was potential gasoline recoverable by refining.

-

inlng Gas and .Loss.

The derivation of an estimating factor for refining gas and Joss is somewhat complicated- Tablesive the prewar percentages of the crude oil refinery charge accounted for by refining gas and loss. These percentages are shown.to varyercent of the crude oil refinery chargeo- The percentage uf refining gas and loss tends to increase with the relative increase in cracking operationsormal, trend because cracking operations are usually the source of most Llieof refinery gasnd the production of refinery gasi . ! ve increase ill cracking. Dry cefiflerjl gas increased from lessercent of the crude oil refinery chargeoercentsec Tables

The relative increase in cracking operations continued. This is indicated by comparison of the daftl in Tablesndith0 State Plan (Tables 3 nd by further comparison of thei with various otherl/

*

gas, and consequently larger percentages of refining gas and loss, would be normal. Another reasonarge percentage of refinery gas

that the USSil has limited capacity foef the poly-

merization reversion type serves in part to form liquidfrom the heaviest or least volati components whichwould remain in the refinery gas- Another reason for theof refinery gas and lous il) that Lhe USSR does havefor catalytic Catalytic cracking tendsa greater carbon deposit than do the thermal,o'.: is

* Pp. AO, respectively, above. ** Pp.espectively, bove. Conversion refining consists of those petroleum-refining operations which cause chemical change in the principal constituents. In addition to the reversion type of process already mentioned,refining includes the processes which come within the'general' ftcanlng of cracking and See V.bove.

-

deposited upon the catalyst or other lacdia present in. the; zone* ofreaction,arbon deposit thus developed is not normally recovered for output of petroleua.

It is also probable that the Soviet refining practicemore efficient and has thus reduced the prewar* percentagerefining losses exclusive of those due to the Before World Mar II the miscellaneous refining losseslessercent of the crude oil refinery charge inir.oTf-JJd (see 'fables. In thean extensive practice of catalytic cracking together with the- I- i; -r. r !

of the, the following percentages of the crude oil refinery charge have prevailed:

Percentage Range

5 3

Dry

Other refining losses

Refining gas and loss

For determining postwar refining gas and loss in tlie USSRthe estimating factor is presently assumed toercent ofoil refinery charge. In order to account for thewhich is indicated by increased relative yields, this estimating factor is increased erccnt estimating factoromewhatderivation./ Although the derivation wascertain assumptions whichrc not believed to bethose referring to the hypothetical objectives toby Use Of the Soviet cracking facilities, thewould have little effect upon the estimating factorgas and loss.m j

* Pp.bove.he development of the US data Is as indicated in Tablefootnote b, Folloving

-

c. Consumption of Nongaseous Petroleun Products in Processing.

In this report the consumption of nongaseous petroleum products in processing is considered to be restricted to the consumption of residual fuel oil in crude oil refining (see I, above, and also. The frogmentary available data on suchin the USSB urc of little value for cstircating purposes. or instance, some of the largest Soviet refineries reportedlyuantity of fuel oil equivalent lo aboutercent of the crude oil refinery/ Soviet stock wastes, particularly the needless or wasteful consumption of residual fuel oilere severely criticized recently in the Soviet press- lj>V As will be shown below, the estimating factor for this consumption is only of incidental use in the present metr-.odc: ogy - The factor itself is derived by analogy with US

In the US crude Oil refinery cVw'plex the general pattern of fuel consumption in processing is as follows:

of net heat and mechanical energy input

Purchased electrical power

Purchased steam

Combustion of fuels

of fuels burned

Coal (in power plants)

Petroleum derivatives

Natural gas

Crude oil charge derivatives

oil charge derivatives us fuels

(a) Refining gasess materials

sludge oil

Dry refinery gas

espectively, above-

** See Tableootnote b,bove, for the basis of the US data.

-

(b) Nongaseous petroleum products,

Petroleum coke (in power plants) Residual fuel oil

It is probableimilur general pattern, with modification, is also applicable tn the Soviet crude oil refineryt.la evident that with one exception the type of the consumed fuel is almost entirely dependent upon choice. The one exception is that for greater practicability of operation and equipment design, the fuels probably are restricted to fluid" types when the fuels arc directly fired to heat the petroleum stock. The fuels for direct heating of petroleum stock are fired in various furnaces or fireboxes, including thein tubestill lieaters and the fireboxes under the old-fashioned pot stills. It Is possible that pot stills are retained in limited use in the USSR.

Even when the general type o& processing and the actual end products are known, moreover, there is no technical basisealistic estimate of the total net energy input itself, the principal reasons being as follows: The requirement of net Input of heat and mechanical energy from the above-mentioned sources ls determined to some extent by the efficiency of design and operation. The total input of energy for the specified end results is the sum of thin net requirement plus recovered heat. Proper design and operation, for example, may reduee tlie net requirement (l) by elimination of needless intermediatewhich use part of the total energyy use of insulationariety of devices to eliminate needless loss of heat,y use of heat exchange to recover from hot material heat which would otherwise be waitt< i, such as the heat liberated when the osit Is burned torom catalyst material.

The composite fuels and equivalent fuel data for the US (based on recorded statistics and computed in this report, taking into account the respective heating values and physical densities of the fuels, are as follows):

report the term fluid is used in the broad sense to include both gases and liquids.

-

.Range (Percentage ofOil Refinery Charge)

For total net energy Input

Dry refinery gasoresidual fuel to

Combination of 1

0.2

to

U

fuels burned

Natural gaa Acid sludge oil

Dry refinery gas

Petroleum cuke

Residual fuel

Combination of above"*

In this report the postwar Soviet refinery consumption of residual fuel oil is assumed toercent of the crude oil refinery ciiurge. The estimating factor is intermediate within tha ranfte for US prnrtice, and Is considered to be adequate for the incidental use which the factor has in the methodology. It is assumed tbat the Soviet crude oil refineries obtain fron various Other sources the remaining net requirement of heat and mechanical energy input. In addition to dry refinery gun and residual fuel oil, the principal other fuel, apparently available in sufficient quantities for significant use ln Soviet refineries, is probably natural

d. Losses In Distribution of Pctroleun

The estimating factor for the Soviet looses in distribution of petroleum products is here assumed toercent of the net product

* Calculated toeating value equivalent to that of all fuels burned,with the exception of dry refineryalso calculated to account for the relatively small heat equivalents in purchased stews and electricity.

** The two sets of ccoblned percentages do not necessarily correspond

in any given yirnr, owing to the piuvhu&ed steam and electricity and

the differences in heating values par unit weight of the different fuels

yields.* This estimating factor is based upon general experience and company data in US practice and ls correlated where possible with Soviet data. Thls'establlshcs the general order of magnitude which, in the absence of more realistic data, is considered adequate. Various Soviet reports deal with phases of the subject, but the information provided is generally qualitative and not numerically resolvable except, sometimes, to inferational basis'. rief'reviewelection of the Soviet data is as follows:

Actual loss percentages hiwu been published in the Soviet press, but the data are Identified ambiguously and apparently referombination of handling losses In production and refining of crude oil and in distribution of petroleum products. The reports seem to infer that the losses consist of the extraneous or needless types of looses. The data on losses, moreowr, seem to apply only to the "eastern" areas of the USSH (presumably the USSR exclusive of the Caucasus and the Ukraine). The loss percentages presumably refer to the crude oil refinery chargease and aro reported as follows:ercentcremft#ercentercentercentercentercent'M

8 the transportation type of petroleum-productlosses were stated to haveercent of the petroleum products shipped during the surcmer season in railroad tank/ Plans and exhortations for Improvements and also records of actual improvements are indicatedumber of Soviet sources dealing with product distribution losses and further with the techniques andfor the handling and storage of the products. The Soviet source reports of this type may be variously classified as economic,and engineering/

Soviet sources also deal with the elimination of waste and the efficiency in the handling, storage, distribution, utilisation, and consumption of petroleum products, referring in particular to lubri-canlo und to liquid fuels for engines. Among such reports there are

* Net petroleum product yields and gross petroleum product yields are considered identical in this report except in the case of "residual

bove.

ducts" derived by crude oil refining. See I, A, p.ootnote c,, above; and this appendix, '3 c'

- a?

those which provide extensive treatment of technological features; some of these refer specifically to "the utilization ih tractors and in all types or agricultural/ while others relate directly to machine tractor stations and state/ Technical norms giving the maximum allowable loss percentages (referred to the stocks handled) were recently/

A'- ti' . :Storage Increments.

The introduction" of this report discusses briefly thefuctor applied for year-end storage reserves in the USSR. For crude oil and for each category of petroleum products, the postwar year-end storage reserve is, with certain exceptions, assumed to5 percent of the respective gross yields for the precediiig year. The exceptions refer to the initial,ear-end storage reserves of petroleum products. It is probable that the year-end storage reservesereow level since this status immediately followed World War IIa period of heavy consumption re qui. regents while refiningwere generally disrupted, year-end storage reserves5 are calculated as percentages of the respective gross yields derivedor estimating purposes5 year-end storage reserve for the kcrosines assumed to have beenercent of6 gross yield and for all other categories ofercent of the6 gross yield.

5 percentppryx."unitesays of reserve supply and is based upon analogy with US data. Theays of reserve supply la considered to be the minimum for refined petroleum products in General statistics showercentage of the preceding total annual new supply of crude oil in the US, with mere thanercent Of this total new supply being, in each year of the period, the annual indigenous crude oil productionthe year-end crude Oil storage reserve in the, ranged7 percent2 percent factor is assumed for crude oil in the USSR, corresponding to the similar factor "applied for petroleum products-

* P.bove.

** Hereafter in Appendix fl equivalent liquefied petroleum gases are ncluded in the term kerosine when kcrosine is used to mean kerosine category, or, more specifically, kerosine ami equivalent products. See the Summary, the first tabulation, p.bove;ndp.espectively, above; andootnote q, See I, B, p.* See Tableootnote b,bove, for the basis of the US data.

-

k. Calculation'of Estimates of Postwar Product

a.' Formulation of the Numerical Calculations."

Appendix B, Sectionresents the complete formulations for the material balances of thehe balances involve numerous separate'quantitiee, and the use of literal symbols thus seems the only satisfactory means for developing the relationships. -The formulations are all resolved as simplified algebraic equations. Although intermediate algebraic relationships are recorded so as toattern for reference should the methodology be'applied to revised parametric data in the future, the actual calculations may be made with combined equations, thus deriving the final numericaldirectly, without shoving intermediate relationships.

The formulated material balances dependariety of supplementary assumptions. The supplementary assumptions are applied chiefly to derive hypothetical constants for estimating. Theserve to bridge the gaps in intelligence. The methodology otherwise serves merely to express the self-evident equalities of total availabilities and total dispositions as outlined belcw:

of Crude Oil-**

(a) Indigenous production

7 (b) Import's

of Crude Oil.

(a) Handling losses ) Direct product use

Storage increment

Exports

Indigenous refinery charge, disposition as follows:

Indigenous refinery gas and loss

Indigenous gross yields of crude oil refining products

* These formulations ore mathematical expressions of the balance relationships which are described generally in, p.bove, and further in IV,bove.

** The total uvailability constitutes the total new supply.

- Ok -

vailabilities of Petroleum Products.*

Crude oil In direct petroleum product use

Indigenous gross yields of:

Hatural gas liquids- Synthetic petroleum products

Crude""oil refining products'

product imports

ispositions of Petroleum Products.

losses

increment

consumption #n:

Civil sector Military sector

b. Tabular Summaries of Calculated Balances,

Tables* record the numerical details of the final results derived by applying the methodology so as to develop estimated values where these values apply in turn to the postwar yields of crude oil and petroleum products in the USSR. Each table is developed in the formequence of subbalaiices showing the relationships which arc implied hy the following general terms: gross yields, net product yields, product net availability yields, and total new supply (total

: -

The tables are thus very detailed ln order to provide patterns for possible iuture applications of the methodology to revised The blank spaces illustrate the gaps in intelligence. The details of these tables, therefore, include numerous intermediate values which would not need to be calculated if the methodology were applied, to derive the'final over-all yield estimates directly.

** Tableshroughollow on pp.% below.

-

-It la noted that theof civil consumption ofarc only tentative. In the/ which provides tbe values of the civil consumption parameters (see) the

quantities fur lubricants are bnued essentially upon the quantities for the residual and other products category, whereas that source's estimates for the residual and other products category are discounted in the present report (see Thatstimate for lubricants3 would not be much influenced by the present methodology, however, andalue Isealistic parameter. 'Die further assumption that the yield of iuorl-contsonstant percentage of the crude oil refineryi considered sufficiently realistic for estimating purposes. The basis for the assumed constant percentage i3 shown in* forSoviet yields and in Figurefor US yields.

The reported link relatives are considered directly applicable to the calculated grous petroleum prfiduet yields. Although the link relatives are cryptically recorded without further explanation in tlie Soviet press, and thus may be given various interpretations, only the gross yields would be logically adaptable to consistent measurement for the purpose of providing an index of annual achievements.

Tabichown the estimated data for crude oil, and Tablesrovide the numerical details for petroleum products.ummarizes the data for all nongaseous petroleum stock in the USSH, resulting by combination of the values of Tablesable'mmmarizea the estimated postwar crude oil refining operations in the USSR and develops the percentages which arc shown graphically in

c. Example of Humeri cai Quiions .

ii

The detailed pattern of the numerical calculations isby the following example vhlch is developed for crude oil and ne. The algebraic symbols and equations are established

gas

reference to Appendix B, Section 5.

bove.

***

See Appendix B, Sectionelow. Followingollowing Tableshroughollow on pp., below. ) Tableollows on p.j Tableollows on.

-

Oil

ndigenous produciion'

elov)

Oil

ndigenous production..

=elow)

andling losses

4 afi-

cqDirect productaQ6 *

torage increment

mports

bove)

xports

bove)

rude oil refinery charge

=n, (Equation8

<3) Gasoline

mports' *.

bove)

xports

bove)

* All figures ir. this tabulation are given in terns of thousand metric

-

3

u 'U IP

ivil consumption

* above) "

JgoMilitary consumption

bove)

= Link relative

l.bove)

oss yield

*

6

6

0

ndigenous grass yield7 (balancel

= Aqq

istribution losses

2 Na-

.

efinery productq latio.-i

equations and rounded values, arithmetical balances being forced in the Over-all series of postwar years.

-

" Storage increment

P5tg)

)

balance value)

AflO Elation

ndigenous gross yield oi" syntheticbove)

ndigenous gross yield of naturalltf>bove)

ge + 0

ndigenous gross yield of crude oil refining

Outline of Numerical Calculations, a. Definition of Literal Crude Oil.

ndigenous production-

andling losses.

se as unrefined product (residual andear-end storagetorage increment.

xports

rude oil refinery charge.

-

(2) Each ?longascousrossDistributionRefinery product 'con sumption (renlduul andYear-end storagetorage increment.

-

PImports.

G

HCivil consumption Including C refinery product consumption.

JMilitary consumption.

KUnk relative.

NNet Subscripts.

GGasoline, tLiexoine.

erosine and equivalent end-useieselubricants.

RResidual and other products. TTotal nongaseous products.

defined on p. kt above.

-

ny nongaseous product.

asoline, kerosine category, or diesel fuel.

ny nongaseous product- Residual and other products-

ny nongaseous product except kerosine category.

enotes correlated annual dataiven9'i-

CO Superscripts."

1or crude-oil refining petroleumor synthetic-oil petroleumor natural gas liquids.

(,) r

rude oil refining gas and loss.

KrQ))

)

!X'.Ui Given for Application.

fr,.

gr,. KrP,. Ilpg,.

superscript is used for total from all sources.

*

PrQ,,,. GrQ,,.

J;;rL- iArS.rB-ArB-

Afi -

Q1

Material Balance! by Definltlatf.

Crude oil:

r -

r -

Any nongaseous product:

rQ

rQ

rfj -

Total nongaseoua products:

. ,

Total crude oil refining nongaseous prcducts:

rK)

- mr -

Gross and net product yielda: Mrft = rQ

d- Material Balances by Assumption-

rR

r

rS

rR

Mrg =

c - Estimating^ Factors Assumed.

O.d-

r,

BrQ-*NrQ

3rR

rQ,

,

JA1W

* 1

(IM

)

)

)

if r

)

5

9 mrj if r7

.

*?

Formulations-*

(l) pa.soUnc, Kerpalne Category, Diesel Fuel.

from Equation)

Trtm potion

p

=JpAlP (fron Equation

I^p ) (from

)

2pAlp (rrom )

From Equations

rPJ"rP

rP

*rp2j Ajj

ip,

,

-rP except as otherwise noted.

g ,S g

ArP - rP *

) P

From

K7pK6PK5PK|'PK3PK2P)jp

(2) Ligroinc-

From Equations

rL

2rL -+

i

5

IL "AILJL

ALL

(3) Lubricants. Assumption:

ArB =

mr )

-

Prooi Equations

^

ArBrBrB

fr-j7rB

rB-ArB

rB

'

Ba7

/

Vb *

"r

HrnUusl andid-

-

(>) Summary of Foraulallono.

From Equations

rar, br, cr, er;

Given: 8r, tTl gr From Equationsnd UO:

i *rG. ArK> *rDJ Given: Fgp, Cgp,rf Froa Equations Ul and 12

AIL' *rL>

Given:

From EquationsUy, und WJ:

Given:

Given:

Froa Equationsheck

ArC- ArL- VK' ArD> ArBJ Given: Gasoline, Kerosine^ CMijjory,l Fuel (Alternate

From Equations,rPB

-

si 9ii

I IJ Isi

i

* I s

!

5,5 ! 5 1

i

i I5

avis aw

I

:

1 5

5

Iii II!

MUSi'

1

t 'II

5 a

ill!

Si III

i* si s

I* SI ft

"; 3

s III

aa *

a SI a II s

;

P

t r*s8* as si*

3

.jj |

llii ihU

iilill llllUiia

f| SII

its iiri

i

| N

I

a"

*

a

9

I

PS

ill

l B

' ' '

Si

a

Hi

I 1

i

i

* HI

I lit

3*3

13 1$

i

i

i S

I 5"

5 s

fil

is

ill

l|

ii!

i

3 j

is*

g s

s

Si

i 1 "Si

j|

H

;|

sij|

Isi

| |

APPENDIX C

WORLD STATUS OP THE USSR IK 'DIE OUTPUT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

Significant results may be developed by comparing derived Soviet data with corresponding data for certain other areas. With respect to petroleum product yields and yield potentials, comparisons with similar data for the European Satellites, Western Europe, and the US are useful.

Petroleum product yields in tlx; European Satellites are coveredeport now being/ Annual petroleum product yields in Western Europe for selected ycurs&3 *re shown in* Corresponding Soviet data^re shown in* and corresponding US data are shown in The manufacture and consumption of petroleum products are similar in the USSR and in the US: most of the indigenous petroleum product yields arc derived by crude oil refining; moat of the indigenously derived products are indigenously eonsuned; and most indigenous productis restricted to indigenously derived products. In Western Europe, however, net petroleum product imports and indigenously derived synthetic petroleum products are relatively Important.

Although this report Je not primarily concerned with the principal petroleum product yield potentials virion relate Lo the source material potentials and installed processing facilities, installed processingrc generally involved in the estimates of the actual product yields. entative suoiiury of crude oil refining capacities in the Free World and the Sino-Soviet Bloc3 is shown inhe footnotes to the table indicate that the available information on the refining facilities of the Sino-Soviet Bloc is at present incomplete and preliminary, but the estimates are realistic enough for generalized use in en analysis.

'ollows on. ** pp-espectively, Pp., respectively,* Tableallows on.

ji;

I I1

APPEffiliX D

GAPS IHEHCE

An over-all gap In Intelligence exists with respect to petroleum product yields in the USSR. This gap is the result of the lack of any firm statistics which relate to the yields obtained7 yields, moreover, are the latest that iray be estimated by extrapolation and still have indirect confirmationealistic typevailable Soviet source data.

Although it may be possible to extend the extrapolated yields estimates throughith some degree Of certuinly, and although the1 State Plan may be usedase for estir^tes of the later yieldaO with ap.me sort of logic, the gap in intelligence is nearly complete for tlie subsequent period. The gap is complete for yields obtained from the end ofto the end of World War Ii. In the series of link relatives published for the postwar period, &ome of the link relatives are missing and others are subject to interpretation at variance with the conclusions of this report.

For the postwar yields there are major specific intelligence gaps which limit the over-all applications of the methodology of this report. Tlie iiysjor specific intelligence gaps refer to the following data for which there arc no values or realistic estimates available.

yields of gasoline, kerosine, and diesel fuel

Soviet postwar civil consumption in the category of residuals and other products.

Soviet postwar civil consumption of lubricantshis report makes tentative use of certain estimates which are available.

k. Soviet postwar military consumption of petroleum productsestimates of men consumption are available3 only.

5. Soviet postwar imports and exports of petroleum products estimates of these trade duta are available as follows: imports, igkC-hT; imports and-

Specific minor intelligence gaps also exist vith respect to the methodology of this report. The minor gaps refer to the present lack of adequate intelligence directly relating to the following data

Use of unrefined crude oilroduct.

Crude oil handling loss.

Crude oil storage increment.

U. Crude oil refining gas and loss.

Distribution losses in petroleum products.

Storage increments for the petroleum products.

Consumption of nongaseous petroleum products in processing operations.

APPENDIX E

SOURCE REFERENCE;

Evaluations, following the classification entry and designatedave tho following significance:

Source of

Doc.onfirmed by other sources

ompletely- Probably true

sually- Possibly true

airly

- Not usually- Probably false

jt- Cannot be Judged

annot be Judged

"Documentary" refers to original documents of; !'. o n by

i"v; . i>I Vf. 'i'

officer, all of which icay carry the field "Documentary."

Evaluations not otherwise designated areose appearing on tlie cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation the cited document,

CTA/RR RA (ORR ProjectPetroleum Terminology,

. C.

p. 2L. C.

, c.

. C

C.

. c.

127

. c.

c.

. C.

CIA/RR RA (ORR, Production of Natural

Cas and Natural-Caa Liquids In the USSR, go Hayp., ; . 3/

State Planning ConnlGSlon. Socialistthe USSR: Statistical Abstract,. iT Eval. Doc. Thereafter referred to asPlanning Commission. Socialist Construction)

Nekrosov, N. II iir.ovoye khozyaystvo, no >, U. Eval. RR 1.

og., above).

lb. USSB, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction

, Ito. U. %nl. Air, AKOIK. urvey of World and Soviet

Petroleum Industry In lftjO. U. Eval. RR Hckrasov, og., above).

ATOM. 2 Sep rjU, Preparation

of Fuel for7 Sovlng Campaign,. Eval. BRtr. Muraiov. Ncftyanoye khozyaystvo, no U)

Corporation. ollar Inicx of Soviet Petroleum

Output, by A. Cerschenkron and S. , U- Eval. RR 1.

The Output of Refined Petroleum Products in the USSR

(EIC Working S. Eval.or data , '6 andor subsequent data.

RAND Corporation. , above).

Ibid.

USSB, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction (ll,, IhO. U. Eval. Doc. . Hckrasov,, Air, APOIN. , above).

A CIA. pp ra (ORR,

Air. The Output Of Refined Petroic-ura Products ln the, W. Eval.or data6 and RR I* for subsequent data.

, above).

Llslchkln, S. Pravda,. U. Evsl. RRir. Specifications for Soviet Petroleum

0 C. Eval. RR 2. (tr. Chcrnyak.

etroleumoscow, U)

Heftyanoyc khozyaystvo, no U. Eval. RR 6.

o. Eval. Ibid.

Pravda, l8 U. Eval. Doc.

CIA. FBIS, Dally Report (USSR and Eastern8. Eval. Doc.

Ukrnlny, U. Eval. Doc.

Joint Committee on Slavic Studies. Current Digest of tbe Soviet Press, volo U. Eval. Doc.

U. Eval. Doc.

Joint Cownlttee on Slavic Studies. Current Digest of tlx? Soviet Press, volo U. Eval. Izvcstiya, U. Eval. Doc.

Joint Committee on Slavic Studies. Current Discst of the Soviet Press, volo U. Eval. *Doc. Ul. Izvestlya, U. Eval. Doc.

State, Moscow, Joint Press Reading Service. Hosccv' Daily Press Review,9 U. Eval. Pravda, U. Eval. Doc.

State, Mobcow, Joint Press Reading Service. MoscowReview,ee B, 23 Eval. Doc.

I13. Planovoyc khozyaystvo, no. U. Eval. Doc.

State, Moscow, Joint Press Reading Service. Moscow Dully Press Review,eeeb U. Eval. Doc. w' Izvestlya, U. Eval. Doc.

Joint Comittee on Slavic Studies. Current Digest ofPress, volo3 U. Eval. CJA. CIA/RRurvey of PossibilitiesFuture Petroleum Refining in.- CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR, CivilPetrol ear's In,

P- 3- s/

Irf. Air. The Output of Refined Petroleum Products in (he USSR

S. or data before

ndor subsequent data. CIA. CIA/RR (ORR Air. The Output of Refined Petroleum Products in the USSR

. $t. W. Eval.or data6

andor subsequent data.

RI-D) (H.. 8.

CIA. SO, RR k.

CIA/RS(ORRabove).

.4

C14 mft/RP RA (ORR.. U. S

CIA/RRhe Economy of Communist China through ttfe Five Yearov >U. S.

CIA/RRoviet Capabilities and Probable Soviet

Ccforses of S.

cia/rr

CI*. CIA/RRoviet Blocroleum to.. 5- Na>jy. Ships That Have Called at Albania,3 in response CIA request S. Eval. Rflt&e, Vienna. ncl1. R. Eval. RR, Vienna. Rpt U. Kval- RRia/rr, above).

CIA/RR RA (ORR,. U.

Embassy,

"Oil Iferhers Fulfill Five Year Ahead Ofy N. jjaibakov, IrJonaaUon Bulletin, U. Eval. Dec. CL . CIA/RRefining of Petroleum in tlie USSR,

62.

21 ,

; annex,

- s.

^ ll-St uth,, above).

lb A.

;

ci T cia/rrb: .i.

AFOIN. urrent Soviet PclrClcua

fining Methods. C. Eval. RR CI cTa/HR RA (ORRourn Raflnericsoviet Bloc, Sep $h, P- k.

(tr from

72.

CI . CIA/RR,I l. r RA (ORRl . FF USE. Eval.koncmiyu topliva, U)

ekc^orT:iyu_topliva, no U. Eval. *

73-

, above)S Bureau of Mines. Minerals0 (pnd preprints of chapters on petroleum for Iqter years).

American Petroleum Institute. Petrolcur, facte und Figures,

no U. Eval. RR

. Eval. RR U. Eval. RR 1.

American Petroleum Institutemerican Natural Gas Association. Proved Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas Liquids, and Natural Gas, vol1ol1 Dec 5I1 U. Eval. RR 2.

'Ik. ciA. CIA/RR ia foffl^ fl

76. CIA. A/HR RA (ORR,

77- CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORRl,- CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORRM, Statistical Analysis

of Petroleum Production in Uie Soviet Bloc,

P- 7.

79- RAM) Corporation. , above).

USSR, Slate Planning Cosai&slor.. Socialist Construction

. U. Eval. Doc.

, above).

SSR, Supplement V,. S.

Corporation. bove).

USSR, Stole Planning Commission. Socialist,. U. Eval. Doc.

State Planning Cecs-tission. The Second Five Year Plan

State Planning Comlssion. Socialist^Constructlon '"

. U. Eval. Doc.

A (ORR,. 3.

8/t

RAND Corporation. , above).

USSR, Slate Planning Commission. Socialist,. U. Eval. Doc.

CIA/RR RA (ORR,. 3.

E

Corporation. , above).

USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Conn,, lto. U. Eval. Doc.

rw/RR RA (CRR,. 3.

C

HAND Corporation: , above).

USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist,. U. Eval. Doe.

f

CIA/RR BA (ORB, a . 3-

RAND Corporation. AND Corporation. RM-8c4ir. The Output of Refined Petroleum,. 2b, S. Eval.or dat andor subsequent data.

92.

93-

.

10m.

.

.

State Planning Commission.

ts in the USSR

. U. Eval. Doc. Air, AFOIN. ,ekrasov, og.,ir. The Output of Refined Petroleum Produl

ir, AFOIN. , above).

data before

LiteraturaTartu,

'7-

Air. The Output of Refined PeUoleum Produ ts in the,. S- Eval.6 and RR I4 for subsequent data.

. GIZ Nauc

Estonia, vols, and U. Eval RRruir.in, P. Review of the Estonian Oil Shal industry.

rief Account of Oil Shale Develops nthe

United"States, Ohio State University Stud) s, Engineering Scries,'vol lo, no U. . (hereafter referred to as Review) Krumin, P. "The Oil Shale Industry of Est< he

Economist, Riga, Latvia, no U. Krumin, P. bove).

CIA. tU5. C, Air. ,ir, AFOIN. , abO< USSR. ,ir, AFOIN. , Ob-CIA. K RA (ORR, II- id .

d.

Certain

CIA. CRR Project lO.'iOOconpauJ .

the Soviet Bloc touneral War

n RH 2.

Eval. RRR 2.

Assumptions'^ (to be published). S. CIA. CIA/RR,IS, above).

Navy* s That Have Called at Albania, response" to CIA request ST State, Vienna. nd1State, Vienna. pr 51 U.

CIA. CIA/RR, above).

Ibid.

CIA. CIA/RR. above).

p. S. Eval. RRir. .9, Production of lA Fuels from Coal In the USSR, p. 21 s! l CIAl CIA/RR RA (ORR,

-

1.

.

:

-

.

A. The Estonian Oil Shale Industry, unpublished.

Committeeree Estonia. U. Eval.IA. CS, C. Eval. RR 4.

Air-.. Eval.IRRrmy, Quartemaster General, Fuel and Lubricujits Div sion.

Petroleum Facilities of qermany.,* C.

Eval. RR 2.

(it brat, BIOS. Over-all Hpt no, Report on t

u.

trxl Synthetic Oil Industry ofval. RR 2.

Air. . S. Ei CIA. CTA/RR RA (ORRTO,/

tonlya, U. Eval. Doc. U. Eval. Doc.6 Jan U. Eval. Doc.

oc -

u.

68

:

bove).

Ibid.

.

Eval. Doc.

r,ov-?tsi-:ayu Eutonlya,pr JI . U. Kozhevnikov, op.,utt,lt-bove).

Ibid. Ibid.

CIA. A (ORB,. fa.

- U1

AFOIN. unRR 3-

(tr of Neft', no U) CIA. 3 R. Eval. RR 3-

bove).

Interior, Petroleun Administration for Defense. oil,.

CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORRbove).

CIA. Whto* RA (ORR,. li.

S,

ORRutput of Refined Petroleua

Products ln the European, Satellites ana Communist China ^to bc published).

Struth,cit., above).

CEEC, Oil Committee Secretariat. 0

Info Jan-Jun R. Eval. Doc.0 R- Eval. Doc. R. Eval. Doc.1nfo R-

Eval. Doc.

, info R. Eval. Doc.

, R. Eval. Doc.5nfo R. Eval. Doc.

InfO R. Eval. Doc.

6nfo R. Eval. Doc.

info R- Eval. Doc. 2ii U. Eval. Doc.

CIA/RR RA (ORR,5

S,

CIA. CIA/RR, ubove).

Interior, US Bureau of Mines. "Petroleum Refineries,

Including Cracking Plants, in the United". Klrby, US Bureau of Mines Information Circular, U. Eval. RR 1.

on United States Operatingil and Gas

Journal,3- Eval. RR 1.

Interior, Petroleum Administration forReport

3 Survey of Foreign Refinir.gAug Eval. RR 2.

Product Yield Pattern in US Crude Oil

RCFIN'NG GA* AND LOSS

RESIDUAL AND OTHER PRODUCTS

*31 3* 36 3V AO il il *' *t si S* ai I

CALCNDAR "AO OF OPERATION

IN03

Product Yield Pattern in Soviet Crude Oil

REFINING GAS AND LOSS

:hgi ssj

Original document.

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