| SECRET,"
N? 64
INTELLIGENCE REPORT
MIGRATION FROM WEST GERMANY TO EAST
CIA/RR96
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
SECRET CQNnPENTIAl*
PROVISIONAL lOTELLIGEHCB REPORT
KZCRATICH FSOM WESTC EAR?-
cia/RRORH
KOTICB
Toe data and conclusions contained In this report do not necessarily represent the final position of ORB and should be regarded as provisional only and subject to revision. Consents and data which may be available to the user are solicited.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
This reportompanion study tohe SffectaIr.tc and out of Easthe Labor Situationsand West Germany,j'*,earlier report
included some general observations on postwar migration from West Germany to East Germany up to and including the The discussion, however, was by no means exhaustive, because at the time thereack of statistical data. New data permit for the first time statistical breakdowns of the various groups of migrants by age, aex, and occupation.
- ill -
D
Page
Summary and
I. Magnitude and General Characteristics
II. Population Groups
of the labor Force
III. Important Occupational Groups
and Textile
Employees .
.
IV. Significant Aspects of West-East
Appendixes
Appendix A. Statistical Tables..' .
Appendix B.
i IIf
rage
Distribution of Migrants fromermany
East Genoany and East Berlin, by Age, Sex, and
Population4
Humber and Percentage Distribution of Migrants from
West Berlin to East Germany end East Berlin, by Age end
23
Birnber and Percentage Distribution of Migrants froa
West Berlin with Unspecified Destination, by Age and Sex,
3 39
Kuaber and Percentage Distribution of Migrants to
West Germany and West Berlin from East Germany and East
Berlin, by Age and23
(ORR
MIGRATION THOM VESTC FAST GERMANY*
Suzimary and Conclusions
Between the beginning1 and.illion persons migrated from East Germany to West Germany. During the same period,ersons went from West Germany to East Germany. Ho information is available as to how many of theseigrants were returning East German It is known, however, that aboutpercent ofQ persons migrating to East Berlin and East Germany from West Germany (not including West Berlin)2^ were East German returnees. Thirty-three percent were indigenous West Germans, and the remainingercent were German nationals or ethnic Germans expelled from former German territories or from territories outside the prewar borders of the former The distribution of these population groups among the total migrants from both West Germany and West Berlin to East Germany and East Berlin during the same period was probably quite similar."
A little more than half of all West-East as well as2^ were in the labor force. There was about the same proportion of white-collar workers, engineers, and technicians
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the best Judgment of ORR as of
** Unless otherwise indicated, the terms West and East as used in this report refer to West Germany (including West Berlin) and East Germany (including Eastespectively.
*** According to German definition, refugees (Zugewanderte) are those Germans who9 had their residence in East Berlin, East Germany, or the Saar and subsequently moved to West Germany or West Berlin. No separate statistics exist which would be limited to postwar refugees. It nay be estimated, however, thatercent of2 refugees who, according toeturnedrom West Germany proper to the East werepostwar refugees, l/ (For serially numbered source references, see
According to German definition, expellees (Vertriebene) are German nationals or ethnic Germans who,irect or indirect consequence of World War H, were expelled from formerly German territories east of the Oder-Neisse line or from territories outside the borders of the former Reich as they existed onecember
in both movements. The percentage of farmers, agricultural workers, and persona engaged in commerce and transportation was considerably larger among the migrants going to the Vest than among those going to the East. Conversely, the Vest-Bast migrantaarger percentage of industrial workers, artisans, end scientists than the East-Vest migrants.
In tbe first postwar years the large migration from the East was an economic burden on West Germany. Subsequently, however, theexpansion of the Weflt German economyorresponding decline In its labor reserves have changed the situation. Many, If not aost, -of Its considerably aoreillion refugee residents who are able and villlng to work haveelcome addition to the Vest German labor force. In East Germany, on the other hand, the movement to the Vest has contributed much to the continual downward trend ln total population. Moreover, it not only has resulted in the loss of alarge portion of the labor farce but also has intensified scarcities of specialized and highly skilled personnel.
The relatively small West-East migration at no time has been large enough to offset the effects of movements In the opposite direction. Nevertheless, because the population of East Germany is much smaller than that of Vest Germany,ew migrantselcome addition to its declining population and an opportunity to make up for sane of the quantitative and qualitative labor losses. The East German leaders have found the West-Bast migration so useful for their purposes that they have embarkedigorous policy of inducing refugees to return and, beyond that, of luring selected other Vest German residents to East Germanyapparently with appreciable success.
Judged by Western standards, political, social, and economic postwar conditions in Eaat Germany are unattractive. Many people, therefore, have found lt difficult to understand why refugees should have returned and even West Germans emigrated to the East. Although the reasons for much of the migration to West Germany may be deduced from information obtained through the refugee screening process, the possible notlves of the ulgrants to Bast Germany areatter cf conjecture. An analysis of the state of mind of the participants in the two movemente and of the employment possibilities ln each part of the country, together with en examination of the refugee situation ln Vest Germany, seems to Indicate that the movement to Bast Germany, like the East-West migration,
vas largely motivated by personal and economic, rather than political, factors. Seme migrants apparently felt that they vould be better off in East Germany even though in general its economic condition has been less favorable than that of West Germany.
I. Magnitude and General Characteristics.
It Is estimated that betveen the beginning1 sodersonsaleseoaleamigrated from West Germany and West 3erlir. to East Germany and East Berlin (see Table
Ho information is available which could be used to present aofigration apart from sex. Such data, however, are at band for the2 As shown lnersona migrated Inears from West Germany and West Berlin to East Germany and East Berlin. Tbe number of femalesxceeded that of) slightly. About Uk percent of these migrants were economically Inactive. * shows that, although only about hi percent of the female migrants were members of tho labor force, aboutercent of the male migrants belonged to it. Tablehowever,
* Appendix A,elow. Ae explained ino Tablet is assumed thatercent of the persons migrating from West Berlin with unknown destination went to East Germany, including Bast Berlin. This assumption may be too high by aboutercent; If so, onlyersonsalesemalesould havefrom the West to East Germany and East Berlin. These figures and those in Tableowever, are somewhat too low, because anumber of postwar refugees slipped back to East Germany clandestinely and thus are not Included. Taking all these factors Into consideration, the estimateigrants appears to be reasonable. Tbe computations In subsequent tables Include only tbe migrants with known destination.
Appendix A,elow. Appendix A,* Appendix A,elow.
indicates that, at least2he average percentage of the total female migrants from the West V* years old and over who were economicallyercent) was apparently considerably higher than the percentage of all women Ik years old and over who were in the West German laborercent). Similarly, aboutercent of the total males ll* years old and over who migrated to the East23 were economically active, although the average percentage of all men in this age group who were in the West German labor force was only roughlyercent.
The percentage of economically active persons was slightly higher in the migrations tb the East than in those to theomparedercent).* As to occupationalhe percentage of farmers and agricultural workers and of persons engaged, in commerce and transportation was considerably larger among the migrants going to the West than among those going to the East. The percentage of government employees, office workers, and members of technicalwas similar in both movements.' The West-East migrantsarger percentage of the following types of workers: industrial workers and artisans; domestic,nd social workers; and scientists and artists.
Estimating the reasons for migration from West Germany to East Germany is even more difficult than estimating the reasons forfrom East Germany to West Germany. With respect to the latter, at least the migrants1 own statements, taken during their screening in the reception centers, are available. The possible motives for West-East movements, however, are more oratter of conjecture.
Information obtained through the refugee screening processthat tbe mass movements from East Germany to West Germany have taken place primarily because of economic or personal reasons and that such motives as opposition to the Soviet system as such or belief
* See Tableppendix A,elow. ** The names of tbe categories of workers in this report follow the nomenclature of the West German Ministry for labor. East German terminology is almost identical.
*** Includesn addition to doctors, dentists, pharmacists, and nursessuch professions as meat Inspectors, veterinarians, barbers and beauticians. Insect exterminators, masseurs, and embalmers.
in West European democracy naveelatively minor role. 2/ froa West Germany.to East Germany has, to all appearances, been due preponderantly ta the sane reasons. The statementisappointed refugee who vas about to return to East Germany that "my home isan find work andood living,olitics"robably is typical of the attitude of many West-East migrants. oint of view, which places economic considerations before political convictions, probably is due to loss of faith in political ana economic stability resulting from the ruinous collapse of three seemingly stable politico-economic systemsimperial, liberal, andnd the ultimate- partition of Germanyotalitarian-Communistemocratic-liberal state.
The fact that24 almostercent of all West-East migrants overears old were not economically active maythe extent to which movements to the East were motivated by non-economic considerations. umber of these migrants may have gone East hoping to improve their economic situation in one way or another, the majority probably moved for different, and primarily personal, reasons. The wish toerson on the other Bide of the line of demarcation, to return toformer community, to rejoin friendsamily split up during the war, to enjoy again tbe use of ones property, or even mere nostalgia apparently often have been stronger than awareness of the potential political, social, and perhaps even economic consequences of migration into the Soviet area.
Although it is not difficult to point out the personal motives of migrants to the East, it is not easy to surmise what economic factors may have caused people to leave West Germany for East Germany. By any yardstick, economic conditions in both East Germany and West Germany improved substantially during the period under discussion. The rate and scope, however, of over-all improvement was obviously greater in the West than in the East. Yet migration to the East, apparently, was noteconomically unwise in specific situations or by specific types of people.
Although living costs, toward the end of theo be higher ln the East than in tbe West, the expenditures for goods and services of people with very small incomes who lived near or at the subsistence level had become about tbe same in West Germany and East Germany, kj In this respect, therefore, such people had nothing to lose by migrating to the East. The factumber of the
essentials of life vere (and still axe) rationed in the East and sold at relatively low prices may have been an incentive to move. The situation was similar with respect to those specialists and highly skilled workers for whom jobs were waiting in East German industry with compensation high enough to take care of the West-East cost-of-living differential or even to exceed it.
In view of great improvements in the employment situation inindustryhole, the large demand for many types ofthe East did not attract so many West Germanss in the earlier postwar period. The number of unemployedvacancies in West Germany proper decreased*ndnview of dif-
ferences in the development of the various industrial sectors, the rate of the decrease, however, was not the same in all occupational groups. It was fastest in those groups employed in the capital-goods area (for example, electricians, building construction and metal workers, wood processors, and mine workers) and was more limited in other occupational groups such as workers In agriculture, commerce, textiles and leather, food products and stimulantsundnd domestic workers. Job seekers, especially refugees, belonging to occupational groupsess favorable employment situation therefore may have decided, under the influence of East German recruiters or on their own initiative, to try their luck in the East. Scarcity of housing also prevented many unemployed refugees of any occupation from moving to the chief industrial areas of West Germany, where they might have found jobs.
II. Population 0roups Involved.
A. Members of the Labor Force.
No data are available to break down the totalrom West Germany and West Berlin to East Germany and Eaat Berlin during the period2nto expellees, returning refugees, and otherB. This classification can be made, however, with respectepresentative sample of8 menomen,0 personswho in the same period migrated to Bast Germany from West Germany proper (not including West Berlin). Tablehows that almost one-halfercent) were returning refugees, that approximatelyercent were indigenous West
Appendix A,elow.
Germans, and that the remainingercent vere expellees: According to Tables* approximatelyercent of the migrants vere members of the labor.force. Thirty-nine percent of these economically active persons were industrial workers (of5 percent were5 percent construction workers, and aboutercentworkers), nearlyercent of all migrants belonging to the labor force were domestic, health, and social workers;ercent vere engaged in commerce and5 percent were farmers and agricultural workers;ercent vere office workers or public servants; andercent were scientists and artists. Technicians, machinists, and related occupations accounted together for onlyercent. These percentages do not differ very much from thedistribution of all economically active migrants from West Germany and West Berlin to East Germany and East Berlin, which will be discussed below. The percentage of economically active persons in the total West-East migration was tbe same in both these migratoryercent).
Ofefugees returning from West Germany properr roughlyercent, wereears old or younger. Approximately l6 percent were under Ik years.
A breakdown of all2 returning refugees by both age and occupation is not available. owever, shows that aboutercent of the refugees who were lU years and over and wbo returned from West Germany23 were members of the labor force. The highest percentages were represented by age groups betweenndears. The same percentages, by and large, applied also to tbe Indigenous West Germans migrating from West Germany proper to East Germany and East Berlin.
free transportation, interest-free loans, and return of property, obviously have frequently prompted persons dissatisfied with the unpleasant aspectsefugee's life to re-migrate to the East.
B. Young Migrants.
According toboutercent of5 persons migrating from West Germany and West Berlin to East Germany and East Berlin2^ were younger than Ik years.** Most of them, obviously, accompanied their families. Although East Germany probably did not derive immediate economic advantages from tbeof0 Juveniles, their arrivalelcome addition to its declining population which, in due time, could also be used to augment its labor force. *
There Is rather general agreement that the majority of the West-East migrants who were between Ik andears ofercent of the total) were returning refugees, many of whom had come to West Germany unaccompanied by older family members, snd some of whom had already completed their occupational training before leaving East Germany. In general, they could and did find suitable jobs rather easily. The return to the East of most of these young people, therefore, was not due to economic di-ffi^iltl.
j it rather resulted from the Inadequacy of
efforts to adjust them to the living conditionsree country, to which they were not accustomed, as well as to unsuitable housing conditions after release from the camps. The Bonn Refugee Ministry cited as important causes for the re-migration inadequate attention and supervision as well as lack of contact with the native population in general and the native youth in particular. 6/
* Appendix A,elow. ** The percentage of persons in this age group in the simultaneous migration from East Germany and East Berlin to West Germany and West Berlin was slightlyercent). The median age of the West-East and East-West migrants, however, was nearly identical.
C. Females.
The smaller percentage of females In the total labor forcefrom Vect to East mayeluctance of women workers to submit to the unhealthy and untraditional working conditions of women in East Oonnany. The relatively low number of females among theIndustrial workers would seem to validate this inference. In other occupational groups. In which the working conditions of woman are better than In Industryfor example, domestic and office workersthe number of female migrants even exceeded that of men. Accordingly, It can be concluded that female as well as male workers have moved to the East largely in tbe expectation that the move would improve their economic condition.
HI. Important Occupational Groups.
As shown in Tablethe largest group among the members of the labor force migrating from West Geramny and West Berlin to East Germany and East Berlinore thanercentas composed of industrial workers. Of these industrial workers, nearlyercent were metalworkers,ercent construction workers, and almost ll* percent textile workers.
The second and third largest groups of migrating members of the labor force were made up of persons engaged in commerceercent) and domestic, health, and social workersercent). Onlyercent were farmers and agricultural workers. Relatively few office and public5 percent) or scientists and7 percent) migrated to the East. The proportion of technical workers, such as engineers and technicians, was lessercent*
A brief examination of the participation in the West-East 'movement of some of the occupational groups appears to bear out the above general statements regarding the probable economic motives of migration to East Germany.
A. Metalworkers.
Inest German metal production andworkers were unemployedacant Jobs. The figure for3 was. jj If compared with the corresponding figures for
* Appendix A,elow.
, I
West German industry5t is evident that the employment situation in this occupation was not favorable in the West. In East Germany, however, workers of this type were needed. Thecharacter of tho migrations becomes particularly clear if notice is taken of the fact that the scarcity .in East Germany was, at least in part, caused by defections to the West. At any rate, there can hardly be any doubt that the relative employment situation in this field has had something to do with the fact that aboutercent of theworkers migrating to the East2ere metalworkers.nemploymentacancies in West German metal production and processing declined, and in5
3. Construction and Textile Workers.
Inest German building construction workers were unemployedn the soma monthk, while, apparently, at the same time difficulties were encountered in East Germany in recruiting ouch workers. Tho relatively high rate of unemployment at the beginning of the period may explain, at least in part, why aboutercent cf the industrial workers migrating from the West to the East2* belonged to this occupationalmong textile workers, whose participation in the migration of Industrial workers to East Germany amounted to almostercent, unemploymentacant Jobsnan*
C. Cccnercial Enpioyees.
The employment situation in West Germany In commercialto which nearlyercent of the emigrating members of the labor force belonged, was very bad: nemployedacancies innnnemployment did not gon Although it is unlikely that the employment prospects of commercial personnRl in East Germany were particularly encouraging,igrants to the East apparently believed that they had nothing to lose but, on the contrary, might get some Job due to the great general demand for labor and, perhaps, the lower standards in the Soviet area.
* Unemployment of construction workersacant jobs in West Germany decreased ton n
-
People.
The professional people, 6Uch as artists and physicians, among the migrants probably vent to East Germany because of the shortages ofin their fields. The supply of physicians, in particular, has been ample in the West, although the ratio of practicing doctors to population in the East probably has not been better than. ew artists' have moved to the East for Ideological reasons, but most migrants of this type left because of offers that were financially or professionally attractive.
Workers.
There vas considerable unemployment in agriculture in The rate of unemploymentnn exodus of farmers from East Germany vhlch startedhe chancesigrant tolace in West German This lack of opportunity applied particularly to refugees.
iu itiBthe other hand, -he emigration of so many farmers resulted in the abandonment of probably moreercent of the total cultivated land, and the East German government, therefore, was forced to make very attractive promises to all farmers who would return. Yet, although0 farmers moved to the West,- almost exclusively returneesleft West Germany for East Germany2 The majority of the farmers in West Germany obviously held that, unfavorable as their immediate situation was, they would in the long run be better off in the West than in the
* The number of defecting East German farmers rosend3 andotal oferiod. 6/
nemploymentacancies in West German agriculture declined to onlyn
Tbe smell nuaber of scientists, engineers, technicians, and pence re of related occupations in tbe West-East migration indicates, among other things, that the opportunities vhich hare existed in East Germanyesulthortage of trained people of this kind have not been attractive enough to cause much migration to the East. The relatively fev who did leave West Germany were lured to tho East by especially tempting offers such as good housing facilities;high enough to guarantee an improved living standard despite higher living costs; higher rations which, because of lower prices, decrease living expensesj and other privileges. Such promises, which usually have been kept, may have attracted very highly paid as well as very poorly paid members of the occupational groups here discussed. The fact that for the most part they were left alone politically, as well as the fact that wage increases in the East afterave been especially high for technicians and foremen, nay have beenfactors.
IV. Significant Aspects of West-East Migration.
Migration from West Germany to East Germany has in each year been auch smaller than clgration in the reverse direction. Tbe leases suffered by emigration unquestionably have been such greater In the East than In the West, applying not only to the lose of numbers of people but also to the loss of needed skill* and knowledge, the Immigrationizable misber of workers and professional people hasaluable asset for East Germany and has made up for atart of tho losses suffered by the numerous defections.
Migration to East Germany dropped considerablyrobably because of the Improvement in the economic situation in West Germany. It reached its lowest point thus farhicharticularly bad year politically and economically for East Germany. The migration eastward increased again very considerablyowever, andremained at least at the same levelears of relative stability and economic progress in East Germany. It can be assumed that the relative size of migrations to the West or East will continue to be Influenced greatly by the relative economicin the two countries, including cost of living, earnings,and supply of consumer goods. Thus, improvements in economic
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conditions ln East Germany would tend bo increase moves to the East. Possible misgivings about potential political and social consequences ofove probably would be further reduced if thereiberalization of tbe general political atmosphere ln East Germany.
The above statements may explain some of tbe motives of migrants to the East. It should not be overlooked, however, tbat migrations both to the East and to the West have been partsarge, completely unorganized postwar adjustmentplaceaphazard manner. onsiderable portion of those who migrated into West or East Germany subsequently returned.
nary of the persons who registered us refugees didayp-Lj for asylum buti-Jict Germany, pre-
ferring continuation of life under Soviet rule to the uncertainties of life as refugeesuncertainties of which they apparently had not been aware. ew migrants, especially young people, have moved back and forth even more than twice. This type of movement has not necessarily been due to unhappy experiences by the migrants at their new places of resldonee. In any attempt to interpret tho migrations. It must be taken into account that, despite the development ofsocioeconomic cysteine and forms of government in the East and the West, Germany ia still one countryat least, it is considered by most Germans to be one country which Is only temporarily divided because of external pressure. Accordingly, an appreciable number of West German residents have not hesitated to move from their pert of tbe country to the other. There are no West German regulationsnigration to East Germany.
The East German government, on the other hand, will,ule, permit permanent moves to the West only in the case of personsuseless for its purposes. The fact that ln spite of this policy many more people have moved to the West than to the East indicates that their belief that Germany is one country and that theyight to move to either part of the country has proved to be more effective than all the vigorous East German counter-measures .
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APPE7TDIX 3
METBQD01CCY
In general, the footnoteo to the tables lnoint out ln sufficient detail the necoosary qualifications to the data used in this report. The following problema snd assumptions, however, should be emphasized:
The number of migrants to the West whose origin waa indicated In the source materials as having been East Germany (seendshould be considered as estimates only because of problems of both under-counting ond double-counting of migrants.
The proportion of migrants of unspecified origin who came from East Germany and the proportion of migrants or unspecifiedwho went to Eaat Oonnany are estimated on tho basis of the essumptions given ino* The data presented In tho subsequent tables are for migrants whose origin or destination isEast Germany.
The data |
were adjusted aa follows:
from West Germany to East Berlinseparately in the tabulations, were assumed to have baddistribution by age, by status in the labor force, andas bad migrontu from West Germany to Knot Berlin
to East Germany from Hesseotthe tabulations, were assumed to have had the samehad migrants froa the other lands of West Germany
ln ths labor force whose occupations werewere assumed to have had the same distribution byas had those migrants of the same group whose occupations
Pp.ndrespectively, above. ** bove.
-
U. The characteristics of .migrants to the West were assumed to have been the same as for migrants to West Germany from East Germany and from both East and West Berlin. The validity of this assumption is largely dependent on (a) the extent to which migration from West Berlin to West Germany consisted of persons who aoved to West Berlin froa East Germany during the sane tlae periods, and (b) the extent to which tho characteristics of these migrants froa East Germany to West Berlin who remained in West Berlin differed froa those who later moved to West Germany.
* bove.
Except for migrants from West Germany to East Germanyata are available only for selected occupations within the major occupational groups. For other groups of migrants, therefore, the sum of the numbers shown for specific occupations is not Identical with the nuaber shown for the major occupational group.
A breakdown of migrants from West Germany to East Germany and East Berlin, as undertaken in Tablefor tbeould not be obtained*
The West German government has been publishing data on the number of East-West refugees registering at the emergency reception caapB at Berlin, Glessen, and Uelzen.
Ukit-'1 ^
Original document.
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