BLANK PAGE
FOREWORD
The main purpose of this report is to determine whether or not supplies of primary tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc are adequate to meet demands. To achieve this purpose, estimates of the production of, the trade in, and the demands for primary tin have been developed. Inputs of materials and labor, operating costs, capital investments, and prices have not been considered.
Although the estimates given in this report contain relatively wide ranges of error, they are believed to be adequate for theof the report. They should be used with caution, however, in establishing conclusions on matters other than those considered herein.
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CONTENTS
Pane
I. Introduction
II. Production
A. USSR
Resources
Mining and Concentrating Facilities . . .
Metal Producing Facilities
Metal Production
.B. Communist China
Mining and Concentrating
Metal Producing Facilities .
Metal Production
Vietnam . . ,
Germany
Resources
Mining and Concentrating Facilities . . .
Metal Producing Facilities
Metal Production
Supply of Primary Tin
5
8
9 10
11
1
4
6
6
16
17
9
v -
if
cET
V. Demand .
A. Total Demand 1. USSR .
0 20
European Satellites and Communist China
B. Use
USSR
European
VI. Supply-Demand
VII. Consumption of Tin Ore Resources . .
Mine Production
28
1. Communist
USSR
Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions . .
_
r
.
33
Appendixes
Appendix A. Known and Probable Imports of Tin Metal by the Sino-Soviet Bloc from Western
Appendix B.
Appendix C. Gaps in Intelligence
Appendix D. Source
Tables
Production of Primary Tin in the USSR,
Production of Primary Tin in Communist
China,
Production of Crudeercent) and
Refinedercent) in East Germany,
of Tin Metal by the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by
Supply of Primary Tin in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc,
Demand forn in the Sino-
Soviet Bloc.
m
Uae Pattern of Primary Tin in the7
Estimated Primary Tin Supply-Demand Balance in
the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
Production of Tin Ore in the USSR,
Communist China, and East Germany,
10. Regional Distribution of Production of Tin
trates in the5
- vii -
and Probable Imports of Tin Metal by the Sino-
-Soviet Bloc from Western
Production of Primary Tin In the USSR,
Production of Primary Tin in Communist
China, Pre-Communist
of Consumption of Tin to Total Indus-
trial Production in Selected Countries . . 41 ;.
of Consumption of Tin and Total
Industrial Production in Selected Countries to Total World Consumption of Tin and Total
World Industrial 42
of Tin Demand to Industrial Production
in the UK. France, Belgium, and
of Estimated Total Tin Demand
- in the7. .
of Estimated Total Tin
in the European ,-
and
of Estimated Stocks of Tin in tho USSR,
. .
Map
Sino-Soviet Bloc: Tin Mining and Processing Facilities
Back Cover
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i
ORR
THE TIN INDUSTRY IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC*
Summary
Both the domestic supply of and the demand for primaryn the Sino-Soviet Bloc increased greatly0 Inear period, production doubled, increasing0etrichile in the same period Ihe demand increased from0 to0 tons. Although these increases were groat, the quantities involved were relatively small in comparison with production and consumption in the West. or example, production in the Westons, and consumption in the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty(NATO) alone wasons. Tho demand for tin in the US0 tons, wasimes the estimated demand in the USSR. The relatively large consumption of tin in the production of tinplate in the Westajor reason for the wide difference between the consumption in the West and mat in the Bloc.
* Tho estimates and conclusions contained in this reportthe best judgment of ORR as
** Except where otherwise indicated, the term tin as used in this report refers to primary tin.
*** Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
The acquisition of Communist Cfftna by the Soviet Blocaltered the domestic tin supply position of tho Bloc. Long an important tin producer, China has resources estimated to be among the largest in the world. Furthermore. China is the lowest cost producer within the Sino-Soviet Bloc. 0hinese Communist production of tin increased very5 exceeded the pre-Communist peak production and
represented aboutercent of the total for the Bloc. Although Chinese production has increased rapidly, it remains considerably below that of Malaya. Indonesia, and Bolivia. The sise of the Chinese resources is such that, given sufficient time andproduction probably could be Increased greatly.
Although production of tin in the USSR increased, it was hamperedhortage of economically exploitable tin ore resources* and the increase has boon slower and more costly than that in Communist China. Soviet production of tin5 isto have represented aboutercent of the total production of the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Theercent was produced in East Germanyigh-cost processing of lean and complex ores. '
Throughout the entire period0mports of tin by the Sino-Soviet Bloc decreased, both in terms of percentage of total Bloc supply and in terms of actual tonnages. These imports, rangingaximum ofons1inimum ofonsere obtainod largely from Southeast Asia, either directly or via the Netherlands and/or the UK. The decline in the importance of Imports probablyirect reflection of increasing production in Communist China.
In the Sino-Soviet Bloc, as elsewhere, rising levels ofproduction have increased the demand for tin. Although the development of lome substitutes and^temative materials for some tin products has lowered the average annual increases in tinin comparison with the average annual incroasostatistical relationship between tin Consumption and industrial production can be developed. This relationship is not affected materially by the recovery and use of secondary metal, because the supply of scrap available depends primarily on the level of industrial production and the use of tin products therein. Hence the recovery and use of secondary metal tends toelatively constant percentage of total tin consumed in industrial
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production. Because of the almost complete absence of datadirectly the position of secondary metal within the Bloc, only the supply of and the demand for primary, tin aref the0 tons of tin consumed in the Blocboutercent was required by the USSR; Poland and Czechoslovakia consumed much of the remainingercent. It is anticipated that the demand for tin in the Bloc will continue to increase along with future expansion of industrial production.
The USSR is known to have accumulated some stocks of tin. part of which were obtained under Lend-Lease during World War II. The magnitude of these stocks, suggested by the differences between the estimated supply of and demand for tin sinco theof World War II, may be sufficient to meet demands at present levels foronths in the USSR or uponths in the entire Sino-Soviet Bloc.
In spiteapid increase in production0urrent production of tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc is slightly below estimated demand. Furthermore, all of the producing areas are far from the major consuming areas; this is especially true of the largest producing area, southern China. The European Satellites depend almost entirely on imports for supplies. On the basis of tin ore reserves, the Blochole, however, is capable of becoming self-sufficient in tin and conceivably could export tin to the West.
The main purpose of this report is to determine whether or not supplies of primary .tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc are adequate to meet demands. In the Bloc, as elsewhere, tin. is an essential component of numerous industrial alloys, such as bronze, babbitt, and solder, which are widely used throughout industry. Tin is also consumed in the Bloc in the form of tinplate for the pack-aging of various consumer goods, especially food products, but because the economies of the Bloc countries have beenoriented toward developing industrial production andotential, the proportion of tin consumed in Industrial alloys in. the Bloc is much higher than in the US.
Over the pastears, all of the major tin-consuming countries of the world, including the USSR, have been engaged in an intensive research program to reduce dependence on tin products. The major reasons for this program have been shortages of tin, whicheloped during World War U, and the continued military vulner-
ability.of the major world sources. Although some successes
been achieved in the development of substitutes, tin alloys havs continued to be essential for many industrial applications. tinplate continues to be the.most economical material' available for the packaging of food products.
It
To achieve the purpose of thia rejjprt. the following steps have been taken: (a) development of estimates of tin production andof production potential within the Sino-Soviet Bloc; (b) development of estimatos of Imports and an evaluation of. their relative importance; and (c) development of the probable demands for tin in the various countries of the Bloc on tbe basis of the relationship of that demand to trends of industrial development.
As previously noted, this roport is concerned with primary tin only. Although the supply and use of secondary tin is notdirectly in the development of the various estimates
ECRET
given, the absence of such data does not affect significantly Ihe validity of the estimate* made for primary tin. Primary tin is consumed almost entirely in two forms, as tinplate and asalloys. As tinplate, secondary tin is not consumed inquantities, nor isignificant recovery of tin from tinplate scrap. The quantities of secondary tin recovered and used in industrial alloys is determined largely by the quantity of scrap available, which, in turn. Is determined by the level of industrial production. The supply and use of secondary tintends toelatively constant percentage of the total tin consumed in industrial production.
Because of the fragmentary nature of the data relating to the supply-demand balance for tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, theused to obtain the various estimates required is of prime importance. For details of the methodology used, see Appendix B.
II. Production.
05 the production of tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc increased from anons to anons, fromercent of tbe world's total production0 to aboutercent Within the Bloc, Communist China, the most important producer of tin, accounted forf Bloc production The USSR produced aboutercentnd East Germany accounted forercent.
A. USSR.
.1. Resources.
The major weakness in the Soviet tin industry appears tohortage of economically exploitable tin ore resources. 0 the USSR was considered to be almost completely deficient in tin ore resources.0o the present time the USSR has been engagodetermined effort to discover and develop
* For serially numbered source references, sec Appendix D.
* See the map, inside back cover. The term region in this report refers to the economic regions defined and numbered on CIASSR: Administrative Diviaionfl and Economic Regions,
new deposits. 3/ Ol the total funds available to the Peoplesof Nonferrous Metals0 for prospecting, 5ent was allocated to the search for tin ore resources, an amount exceeded only by that allocated to gold prospecting. 4/ esult of this program, many relatively small deposits, both lode and placer, were discovered in'East Siberia, the Far East, and Kazakhstan and Central Asia (Economic Regions XI, XII, and X,eading to claims of large Soviet tin ore resources. or example, Soviet officials claimed tbat tin ore resources in the USSR had been increasedegligible quantityoint where.they were exceeded only by those of Southeast Asia (presumably including southern China) and Bolivia,ndicating resourcesons of contained metal. On the other hand, much of these tin ores probably are not exploitable under prevailing technological and economic conditions. Almost all of the deposits are situated in areas that are extremely remote from urban centers, and climatic conditions are adverse. 6/ Many of the deposits are very low in tin content. The ores in the Sherlovaya Gora mine in Chitinskaya Oblast average8 percent tin content, Tj those in the Onon mine in Chitin>-skaya Oblast averageercent tin content,nd the Sinancha ores in Primorskiy Kray contain3 percent tin. 9/ These tin content percentages may be compared with the complex, lode ores of Bolivia, which rangeercent tin content. Finally, some of the deposits are very complex, and the ores are difficult to beneficiate, such as those at Khapcheranga in the Chitinskaya Oblast and at the various mines in tho Tetyukie-Kavalerovo area It should be noted that although the Sixth Five YearO) contains no reference to increased production of tin, provision is made for increasing0 geological prospecting for tin ore resources .tooorcent above5
An illustration of the difficulties encountered in the Soviet tin industryesult of the inadequacy of resources is the situation athich produces between one-fourth and one-fifth of the total mine output in the USSR. Operating costs in the Dal'stroy area are far more than the selling price of its
^waicAuble/dollar ratio of overn addition to the high price paid, Dal'stroy producersubsidy ofercent of the price In spite of both high prices and the subsidy, Dal'stroy producers operatedoss in4bf
The major areas of tin ore deposits in the USSR now being mined are the Chitinskaya Oblast; the Khingan area in. the Yevreyakaya Autonomous Oblast; the Tetyukhe-Kavalerovo area in Primorskiy:
aim urnsaKcnan in tne Magadanskaya
blast, and Ege-Khaya in Yakutskaya; and scattered deposits in Vostochno-Kazakhstanskaya Oblast, Tadzhik SSR, and Kirgix SSR.
ining and Co centra ting; Facilities.
_
a.
* itii' ii: Soviet tin mines-generally are relatively smallscattered over large areas of the Asiatic USSR and ex-tending into Outerhe- available data on Soviet tin mines include numerous-references to both underground and . h'i open-pit operations. Many of the Soviet tin mines containetals also. Tungsten, for example, is produced at the Onon. mine in Chitinskayat the mines of the Castinnd at Iul'tin in Magadanskayaoad, zinc, and silver are produced in the tin mines in the Tetyukhe-KavalerQvo area of Primorskiy; and gold mayyproduct of some of the tin mines in the Dal'stroy area.,
, b. Concentrating Plants.
m . -
The Soviet concentrating plants are located at or near the tin The most commonly used ore beneficiation process is gravity concentration byut tho flotation process is used at several places where the separation of sulfide minerals from the tin oxide (cassiterite) ia plants using the flotation procsss include those at Khapchcranga in Chitinskayal Sinancha in Primorskiy Kray,nd at Lazo in Magadanskjtya Theachieved by the Soviet concentrating plants usually are low, largely.because of the complex nature of the ores. Atnon plantChitinskayaor examplo. theecovery .was roported to have beenonly in oros are.relatively simple, as in Malaya, recoveriesuch higher, but in the concentrating plants on the Island of . , asmania and in Cornwall. England, which treat complex ores^. imilar to some of the Soviet ores, metal recoveries5 percent and fromoercent, respectively. Although
* Tin mines in Outer Mongolia are operated by the USSR under lease
it is probable that improvements over8 level in the USSR have been achieved, it is unlikely that the present recovery rate is more than aboutercent.
3. Metal Producing Facilities.
In contrast to the tin mining and concentrating facilities that are widely scattered throughout Economic Regions X, XI, and XII, the smelting and refining facilities, are confined to twobothiar from the mining and concentrating facilities. The two locations are Podol'sk. south of Mtfscow, and Krisvoshchakova, across the Ob' River fromhe plant at Podol'sk, which began operatingas designed principally to treat the complex tin concentrates produced in the Chitinskaya Oblast. Undamaged during World War II, this.plant has operatedsince it wasnd its production is estimated to beons of tin per year.** The plant at Krisvoshchakova, also known as the Novosibirsk Plant, as the Chemskaya Plant, and as, began operatingts production is estimated to have beenonsboutercent of the estimated total for the USSR. The metal recovery achieved in Soviet smelting and refining plants is estimated to beercent. 1 the planned recovery wasut some improvements probably have been made
Numerous reports have been recieved of construction, or planned construction, of tin meffA producing facilities at Tetyukhe, Ege-Khaya, Khapcheranga, and Sherlovaya
* See the map, inside back cover. ** For methodology, see Appendix B.
Although the production of tin metal in the USSR is estimated to have increased steadily0he Fifth Five Yearoal is not believed to have been achieved. The Fifth Five Year Plan provided for an increase in production5 to0ore than the actual production Estimates of the production of tin in the USSRre shown in -Table 1.
1
Estimated Production of Primaryn the USSR
For methodology, see Appendix B. The margin of error is. plus or-minusercent. All figures are rounded to two significant digits.
at*
B. Communist China.esources.
eliable, quantitative estimate of total tin ore resources in Communist China cannot be made at this time, of the tin deposits by both Chinese and. USade before the Communist victory clearly indicate that the resources are very large. Based on general geological study, estimates made by these engineers rangedillion tons" of contained The highest figure,illion, exceeds the estimated resources of Malaya, which are considered to be the largest in the world. Even the lower, indicates that Chinesetin resources are adequate toubstantial increase in production.
The Chinese Communist tin resources are confined to five southern provinces: Yunnan, Kwangsi, Kwangtung. Kiangsi. and The resources of Yunnair^are by far'.'the most important. The Ko-chiu area in this province traditionally has accounted for aboutercent of the total Chinese production of tin. Here the ores averageercent tinutside of Yunnan Province, most of the Chinese tin ores are found in small placer
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ining and
a. *
* See the map, inside back cover. The word native as used in this report refers to primitiveand equipment which are peculiarly Chinese in origin.
-
The Ko-chiu area of Communist China contains hundreds of old pits and primitive underground At the time of the Communist occupation, two large and relatively modernmines, the Lao-chang and the Hsin-ch'ang (Ma-la-kah) mines, and several hundred primitive,ines were
Since thai lime the Chinese Communists, with the aid' ofndave expanded and improvedo-chang and Hsin-ch'ang mines. The modernization includes improve ments in ventilating systems, widening of haulage levels, and laying of underground rail Although some of the old, native-mines have been incorporated intoajor mines, aa late4f the native mines were still operating under pro-Communist owners. Their production, however, had to be sold to the government-controlled Yunnan Tin Industry Outside of the Ko-chiu area, most of the tin mines are openJplt operations. In Kwangtung, where tin occurs in association with tungsten in placer deposits,effort has been made to expand
-
b. Concentrating Plants.
The Chinese Communist tin concentrating plants generally are located at or near the producing mines. At the time of theoccupation, one seroimodern plant in tha town of Ko-chiu was in operation. It treated only the ores produced at theine, recovering aboutercent of the metal. The ores produced at the Lao-chang mine and at tho otherative minestreated in primitive mills in which the process consisted of puddling and sluicing. In such mills, metal recoveries were.no greater thanercent and probably averaged lower than
he Chinese Communistsew modern concentrating plant at Ta-t'un, whichapacityons of ore per It was to treat the ores produced at the Lso-chang mine and other mines in the immediate At the sameew aerial tramway, ilometers (km) long, was erected from Lao-chang to Ta-t'un to move the ore to the In addition to the new Ta-t'un plant, the Chinese Communists have built several other small but modern concentrating plants in the Ko-chiu area to replace old, native Insofar as is known, the old Ko-chiu mill continues to treat the ores mined at the Hsin-ch'ang mine.'
-
The tin ores in the Ko-chiu area are difficult to beneficiate efficiently because of the extreme fineness of the cassiterite grains much of which is lost in ehre, Dolbear, andS engineering'firm, conducted tests'oh typical samples of Ko-chiu ores and estimated that with the use of modern equipment and techniques recoveries ofoercent could be In view of the modernization program, it is assumed that the new Ta-t'in plant probably is achieving recoveries of aboutercent.
Outside of the Ko-chiu area, ore concentration is generally accomplished by Because of the primitive equipment in use, the recoveries are very poor. 4 in Kwangsi Province, for example, the metal recovery in concentrating was reported to have been only
etal Producing Facilities.
At the time of the Communist occupation of China, the smelting facilities at Ko-chiu consistedlast furnace,apacity of aboutons of crude tin per year, andmall, crude, nativeith an average capacity each ofon of crude tin perhe metal losses in the blast furnace averaged-aboutercentmetal contained in thend rangedoercent in the native Chinese Communist pressndicate that the capacity for production of crude tin has been expanded and that the metal losses in the producing operation have been reduced. To achieve these results, the Communists may have reconstructed the old reverberatory smelting furnace which had been destroyed by the Japanese during Worldnd also may have erected new smelting facilities. The replacement of the old, native smelting furnaces by new orfacilities would have reduced metal losses.
The annual refining capacity at Ko-chiu at the time of the Communist occupation was aboutons of tin metal averagingercent tin Because of the presence of iron, lead.
-
copper, and antimony impurities in ihe ores mined at Ko-chiu and. in turn, in the crude tin produced, the production of high-purityercent) is very The Chinese Communists not only have increased the refining capacity at Ko-chiu.but also are reported to have raised the average quality of the product. An electrolytic refining plant at Ko-chiu had been talked of before the Communistut it is not known whether or not this plant has yet been installed. here was erected in the Ko-chiuew powerhich possibly could have been for use by anrefining plant.
Outside of tho Ko-chiu area there arc several smaller smelting and refining centers. The most important of these is at Pa-pu in Kwangsi The equipment in these smaller centersof native smelting furnaces and small reverberatory refining On the basis of reports on operations in the native furnaces in the Ko-chiu area, it is estimated that losses in smelting in these other centers average betweenndercent. Because the tin concentrates treated by these centers are relatively freempurities, high-purity metal is easily produced. The production at Pa-pu averages moreercent tin
etal Production.
he production of tinCommunist China increased sharply0he increase averagingercent
annually. Tho large increase54 of about
was the result both of higher recoveries in the concentrating process, obtained in the newn plant, and of increased ore production. Apparently the rate of increase exceeded even Communist expecta-lions;ommunist China was able not only to ship its quota to the USSR but also to ship aboutons6stimated production of primary tin in Communist Chinas shown in
ollows on
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top
Table 2
Estimated Production of Primary Tin in Communist China
Metric Tons
*
700
100
000
i ii 'g i . hit ycllUlA O.
The margin of error Is plus or minusercent. All figures are rounded to theons.
C. North Vietnam.
small tin mines in the Tinh-Tuc area of Tonkin in North Vietnam, fromrewar average annual productionons of tin-in-concentrates was obtained, probably have rssumsd operations. Because the production is not smelted locally, it probably is shipped to Communist China in the form ofnd probably would be included in Chinese Communist production statistics.
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top sbcret
D. East Germany.
. ,
In East Germany the tin resources consist ofdeposits at Altenberg,,Ehrcnfriedersdorf, Sadisdorf,all in the Erzg'ebirge range along the79/ The tin ores in East Germanyiare very, complexvery low in tin content, averaging aboutercent. exploitation of these ores has been under wayongalways has been very small. The presentis the highest recorded in the twentieth century.of the high production costs resulting from the poorthe a. reassessment of the industry was made indetermine the feasibility of obtaining all tin supplies from82/ Although the conclusions of this reassessment areknown/ tin. ores in-East Germany continue to be
and Concentrating Facilities.
Three firms in East Germany produce tin concentrates: the VEB Altenberg Tin Mines, operating the Altcnberg. Sadisdorf, and Zinnwald mines; the VEB Ehrenfriedersdorf Tin Mines, 'operating the Ehrenfriedersdort (Sauberg)nd the.VEB.Rodewisch Tungsten and Tin Mines, operating the Gottesberg/ .Because of. the complex nature of theeneficiation is veryhe planned, recovery at the:Altenberghe largest in ast*Germany, was to be onlyft". * ; t:
There is only one tin smelting and refining plant in East Germany, the WB Buntmetall Zinnhuette at Freiberg. This plantrude tin averaging aboutercent tin content, and metal losses are aboutercent in the For use in the manufacture of some industrial alloys, this product is
- 16
m
not further To supply the requirements for metal of higher purity,art of the production of crude tin is refined by electrolysisercent tin
4. Metal Production.
Becauseart of the crude tin produced in East Germany is refined, the remainder being consumed as produced, the production of crude tin is the best measure of East German tin production. Estimated-production of crudepercent)-and refinedercent) in East Germanys shown in Table 3,
Table 3
Estimated Production of .Crudeercent) and Refinedercent) in East Germany
- Tons
Year
Tin
Tin
b/
b/
c/
d/
e/
f /
(plan) gj
margin of error is plus orercent.
III. ..
The Sino-Soviet Bloc does not export tin metal; therefore, all Bloc trade in tin consists of imports. 0loc imports ranged from an estimated maximum of aboutons1inimum ofons During this period. Bloc imports of tin have been decreasing, both in terms of actual tonnages and in terms of the relative importance to the total Blocsupply. 0or example, imports averaged about.ons per year, which represented an annual average of9 percent of the total Bloc supply. 3owever, imports averaged aboutons per year, representing an annual average of onlyercent of the total supply. The principal reason for the decline in imports of tin has been tho rapid increase in Chinese Communist production,':
Since2 the export of tin to Communist China has been embargoed by international agreement, but for tho rest of the Bloc no international legal restrictions on exports of tin have boon imposed. Beforein was on International List III, which required only that exporting countries report to the Coordinating Committee on Export Control (COCOM) any shipments of tin metal made to the Bloc. Sincein metal has not appeared on COCOM listings..
Although primary sources of tin imports by the Sino-Sovietvaried considerably from year to year, two countries haveto supply the bulk of the Bloc imports. Ofofons of tin metal estimated to have beenthis period, the known and probable shipments fromfor aboutercent and those from theercent. Imports of tin metal by the Sino-Soviet Bloc,re shown in Table 4.
* ollows on
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TOP SECRET
Table
Imports of Tin Metal by the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Source a/
Metric Tons
*
b/
for the individual countries are derivedA. Totals are rounded to two significantmargin of error is plusercent toercent.
categorypercent margin toshipments plus small known shipmentscountries.
TV. Supply of Primary
Because tin metal is not exported by the Sino-Soviet Bloc, the available Bloc supply consists of production plus imports. The estimated supply of primary tin in the Sino-Soviet Blocs shown in Table
Table S
Estimated Supply of Primary Tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc a/
Metric Tons
-
bove.
bove, and rounded to the nearest
are rounded to two significantplus or Twim.niercent. -
from Table.
from Table.
from Table 3,
from Table. -
of figures given under "Production" and "Imports. "
Demand.
'i
Total Demand. 1. USSR.
, Evidence relating directly to the demand for tin in the USSR is extremely scarce. The only definitetatement of the consumption of tin Because.
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TOP SECRET
however, the consumption of Un. excluding that used in theof tinplate, is almost entirely in the form of industrialuch as bronze, babbitt, andwhich are used, directly or indirectly, in almost every sector of industryt follows thatof tin, if use in tinplate is excluded, should follow trends in industrial production. An examination of the consumption of tinxcluding use in tinplate, in six major countries, including the USSR,lose relationship between industrial production and consumption of tin in each country. *
Because of technological developments75 the rate of tin consumption, excluding use in tinplate, to industrial production has declined. Over the past two decades, all of the major tin-consuming countries of the world, including the USSR, have been engaged in intensive research efforts to develop substitutes or alternative materials for tinesult of these efforts, many substitutes or alternativehave been developed, and there hasownward shift
* For methodology, see Appendix B.
** The reasons for the search for substitutes or alternativefor tin products include:
A serious tin shortage existed during World War n. None of the major belligerents was self-sufficient in tin supplies. Early in the war. Southeast Asia, the most important tin-producing area in the world, was overrun by the Japanese and eliminatedin
Since World War II the major tin-producing areas have been located In relatively vulnerable positions. The most Important tin-producing area within the Sino-Soviet Bloc is southern China,adjacent to the Indochina border. Southeast Asia, the largest supplier of tin outside the Bloc, is in constant danger of Communist envelopment.
Tin metalelatively high price (currentlyfor abouthich encourages the development of substitutes.
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TON SECRET
.
of the ratio of tin consumption to industrial production. the relationship between tin consumption andin the USSR is believed to have remained close toin the West because the Soviet equipment thatexamined usually contains alloys with compositionsthose used in the
It is probable that7 to the present theand use of secondary metal has not materially affected the relationship of primary tin consumption, excluding use in tinplate, to industrial production. The supply of scrap available for secondary metal recovery is dependent primarily on the extent of industrial production. Over time, this supply tends to follow the same pattern. The use of tin in the. production of tinplate, the one use for which secondary metal is neither used nor recovered, is excluded from the calculation.
On the basis of these considerations, it appears that demand for tin, excluding use in tinplate, can be estimated from industrial production. tatistical relationship between demand for tin, excluding tinplate requirements, and industrial production in the USSR has been developed by analogy to experience in the UK, France, Belgium, and Italy.* Estimates of the probable demand for tin in the USSR for uses, other than the production of tinplate. were obtained from reported consumption of tin7 andn index of industrial production in the USSR.
* Analogy was made to the Western European countries of the UK,France, Belgium, and Italy instead of to the US because the use pattern and state of technology of those countries is believed to approximate more closely those otthcUSSR than do those of the US.
-
An estimate of the quantity of tin consumed in theof tinplate in the USSR waa obtained from an estimate of the production of tin. cansonsumption of ons of tin inhen added to the estimated demand for. tin in uses other than, tinplate, the tin used in tinplate
was aboutercent of the total. 7 the reportedin tinplateercent of the total. Estimates of use in tinplateore calculated by assuming thatpcrcent figure remained constant for the whole period.
Estimates of total consumption of tin in the USSRof the sum of estimates of tin demand for the production of tinplate and of estimates of tin demand for other uses.
2. European Satellites and Communist China.
the demand for primary tin in the individual
European'Satellites and in Communist China is small, thedemand is substantial, representing roughly one-fourth of the total demand of the Sino-Soviet Bloc. The estimates for thecountries were derived by the same technique as that used to derive the estimates for the USSR. Estimated demand fortin in the Sino-Soviet Blocs shown in Table 6.
Table 6
Estimated Demand for Primary Tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
Metric Tons
300
China
Germany
For methodology, see Appendix B. Figures for individual countries arc rounded to theons; totals,ignificant digits. The margin of error is plus or minusercent.
-
B. Use Patterns. 1. USSR.
The only available evidence relating directly to tho distribution of primary tin within the USSRtatement of7 use The use pattern of primary tin in the USSR7 is shown in Table 7. Because the ultimate uses of tin throughout industry are so varied,7 pattern cannot be translated to the present situationuantitative basis. On the basis of shifts in use patterns elsewhere in the world, however, the probable direction of changes in the Soviet use pattern7 can be established.
Table 7
Use Pattern of Primary Tin in the USSR a/ -
Bronze and brass
Babbitt
Solder
Tinplate
Other
Quantity (Metric Tons)
Total
2 12
-
nd Brass: The proportionate demand for tin in the form of bronze and brass in the USSR probably haa risen. Bronze is especially valuable in Industrial applications because it resists corrosion and shock and Is relatively easy to machine. In the US the proportionate consumption of tin In the production of bronxe and brass has increased
H..libit!: The proportionate demand for tin for the production of babbitt in the USSR probably haa declined. In the search for substitutes for tin products by the majorcountries, considerable success was achieved insubstitutes for babbitt. Examples include powdered metal bearing materials, plastic bearing materials, and The USSR has claimed some success in this area of tin/ In the US the proportionatefor tin in the production of babbitt has/
Sulder: The proportionate demand for tin In the production of solder in the USSR probably has increased slightly. Although low tin solders have been developed, increasing solder requirements resulting from the rapidly expanding production of electrical equipment probably has more than offset the savings obtained by the use of the new solders, as has happened In the/
Tinplate: The proportionate demand for tin for the production of tinplate in the USSR probably has increased. On the basis of an estimato of the number of tin cans produced, it is estimated that1ons ofercent of theotal estimated tin consumptionas consumed In the form of tinplate./ It Is reported that4 percent was used for tinplate. In the West, especially in the US, the introduction of the electrolytic technique in the production of tinplate has reduced tin requirements per ton of tinplate by as much asercent. In the.USSR, however, the use of this method is not yet widespread.
-
It is interesting to note the wido difference in theimportance of tinplate requirements for tin in the USSR and in the US. Tinplate requirements have been estimated to have been aboutercent of total requirements in the USSRn the US an average ofercent of the tin consumption was used in the production of/
2. European Satellites.
Although the use pattern of tin in the Europeanvaries considerably from country to country, thetin used in the production of industrial alloys such asand solder generally is relatively high in comparisonproportionate demand in the UK and in theinplate', for .is known to be produced only in/ and Rumania./ arge part ofsupplies required by the various Satellites is obtainedof semimanufactures and finishedsetin does not show accurately the actual proportionate usein all forms by these countries. For example,ons in East Germany/ aboutwore imported as bronze metal.
VI. Supply-Demand Balance.
The estimated primary tin supply-demand balance in the Si no - oviet Blocs shown in Table The tin supply-demand balanceet surplus of aboutons, all or part of which may have been added to tin stocks in the USSR. Tin is stocked in at least two depots in the USSR: at, and atuburb of Moscow. 'The existence of these stocks has been established by reports of returning prisoners of war who claim to have either seen or handled the metal in the depots./ One prisoner of war claims to have seen the word BANKA stamped on stored tin/ Because BANKA is the trademark of the Dutch firm N. V. Gemeenschappelijka Mijn-bouwmaatschappij Billiton for tin metal produced from ores mined on the Island of Banka, Indonesia, it is almost certain that this prisoner saw tin metal.
ollows on
- 26
from Tablebove.
from Tablebove.
The existing stocks of tin in the USSR are tentatively estimated00 tons. At the end of World War II the USSR is estimated to have accumulated stocky ofons. * It is doubtful that69 the USSR added important quantities to its tin stock a; tin supplies were known to have been scarcethesehe estimated supply-demand balance of tin for the entire Sino-Soviet Bloc0urplus ofons. All of the surplus is believed to have been added to Soviet stocks. omplete cessation ofin the Bloc and of all imports, the estimated stocks would be adequate to meet the estimated Soviet demand for tin at current levelsoonths, or of the entire Bloc foronths.
* For methodology, see Appendix B. ** See Table 8. .
There is no evidence of any strategic stocks of tin in the European Satellites or in Communist China. Where state reserves are maintained, as in East Germany, the apparent purpose isontrol/ and such stocks must be considered as working inventories. On the basis of the general practice in the West, it is estimated that working inventories would containonths' supply of tin.ons for the entire Sino-Soviet Bloc.
VII. Consumption of Tin Ore Resources.
Mine :-
Estimates of production of tin ore in the Sino-Soviet Bloc.conversely of tin ore consumed by the Bloc Un industry) are for the various producing countries in the Bloc from theproduction of tin metal; the estimated averageof the ores mined; and the metal losses resulting fromsmelting, and refininghe onlychange occurringas in the Ko-chiuYunnan Province in Communist China, where the erectionconcentrating facilities is estimated to have resulted inreduction in metal losses. The relatively largeof tin ore in Eastirect reflection of themetal content of the ores mined. Estimated productionore in the USSR, Communist China, and East Germany inshown in Table
* 1. hina.
* ollows on
-
. The production of tin.ore in Communist China, is con-entratodmall area aboutm bym, centered around the town of Ko-chiu in Yunnanhis areaas produced aboutercent of the total Chinese production and is believed to be continuing to do so. ;The.otherercent ofroduction is scattered throughouthern provinces of Kwangsi, Kwangtung, Kiangsi, and Hunan. Of these, Kwangsi and Kwangtung are the more important.
Table 9
Estimated Production of Tin Ore in the USSR, Communist China, and East Germany
Thousand Metric Tona
i
'. Communiat
Year USSR Germany
30
Figures for individual countries arc rounded to the0 tons; totals,ignificant digits. For methodology, aee Appendix B. The margin of error is plus or minusercent.
v
2. USSR.
M
-
No one single area dominates production-of tin oreUSSR as is the situation in Communiat China. In the USSR,is producedarge number of relatively small mines5 general areas, one of which, Dal'stroy, includesrraining areas. Although production in aome of the miningineriod, national production appears tosteadily (see In the Dal'stroy area, forof the Chaun-Chukotka Mining Industry Directoratethe largest single producer In this area, declined/
II. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions.
A. Capabilities.
Judged on the basis of tin ore resources, the Sino-Sovietlochole can expand production of tin during the nextears. This potential Increase, however, Is confined largely to Yunnan Province in southwestern Communist China, whore tin ore resources have been estimated to be among the largest in the world./ , production of tin inercent, while the total production of theercent. It is believed that in the future, tin production in China will increase faster than in other producing areas of the Bloc. The magnitude of China's potential forof tin is evident from the plans of the old Nationalistof China, which called for an eventual production0 tonsuantity larger than the total for the entire Bloc It should be noted, however, that such an increase would require some capital investment in mining, smelting, and refining facilities. The expansion of production in China during theears was achiovod with the aid of Soviet equipment and technical assistanceho Ko-chiu mining area development was one of the Soviet Aid Key/nd it is probable that Soviet assistance will be used in any major future expansion.
In the USSR, an increase introduction of tin would be much more difficult than in Communist China. Neither the Fourth.nor the Fifth Five Year Plan goals were achieved. The major deterrent to increasing production in tho USSR is believed to be the lack of adequate resources that are economically Because geological prospecting has developed numerous small and low-grade tin ore depositsery large area in EconomicKazakhstan and CentralI (Eastnd XII (Farowever, it is possible that further search in this relatively unexplored country may develop-largcr
Soviet Aidhe USSR has assisted Communist China with technical advice and equipmentpecific industrial development projects, one of which was the development of the Ko-chiu mining area.
-
and/or richer deposits. Tho Sixth Five Year PI ah provided for an increase0 in geological prospecting for tin ore resources ofoercent above5 level./ The specific areas with the greatest potential for increased production, according to the growth in theears, are the Khingan area, the Tetyukhe Kavalerovo area, and possibly the large area under the control of Dal'stroy.
Production of tin in East Germany is based on extremely poor ores in an area which has been mined for the. years. Hence the discovery of better orei is unlikely. No rr.ajorncreases in production in East Germany are anticipated, ands doubtful that current levels can be maintained over aneriod.
Although it Is believed that the Sino-Soviet Bloc is capable of increasing the production of tinubstantial amount during the nextears, it is also probable that the demand for tin will increase in proportion to Increases in industrial production. Furihc rinure, if the demand for consumer goodsajor increase in the production of tinplate. the demand for tin would, increase more rapidly. In any event, no large surpluses ofover demand are probable in the foreseeable future.
B.
.Under present conditions, the production of tin in theBloc appears to be almost adequate to meet5 is estimated to have been onlyonsthan the. estimated demand. Almost all of thes confined to southwestern Communist China andinstallations in the Asiatic USSR, all of which arefrom the major consuming areas in the European USSREuropean Satellites. Furthermore, one general area,produced aboutercent of the total production inthe production potential indicates that this percentageincrease in the future. The European Satellites dependon imports for
-
Because all ol the major tin-consuming countries of the world, including the USSR, have tried for many years to reduce dependence on tin products, it is unlikely*that the Sino-Soviet Bloc requirements for tin could be further reduced significantly by the use of substitutesoss of industrial and/or military efficiency. Also, becauae the bulk of the Bloc demand ia inand military consumption, it is doubtful that much saving of tin could be accomplished by redirecting the use pattern toneeds only.
C. Intentions.
Becauae tin ia consumed in relatively amall quantitiea in many indirect uses, both military and civilian, it ia not. on theood indicator of intentions. Although tin haa manymilitary applicatione, such as the use of bronze in naval equipment and of solder In electrical apparatus, the same alloya are equally essential in civilian use.
-
BLANK PAGE
Tabic II (Continued)
i. All from Malaya.
j . All from/
k. ons from the/ons fromons from the Netherlands,/ons from/ andons from/
1. ons from the/ons from/ons
from the Netherlands.
m.ons from the/ons fromand 6atons
from the/
h. ons from theons from Malaya,/ons
"from the"
o. ons from the/ andons from Malaya. All from the Netherlands.
,q. ons from tho/ons from/ r. ons fromons fromnd
ons from tho UK.
s. ons from/ andons from the Netherlands.. ons fromons from the Netherlands. lo77"
ndons from Indonesia.
u. ons from/ andons from the Netherlands. All from the Netherlands.
w. All from/ at. All from/
y.ons from/ons from/ll from the/
aa. All from/ bb. All from the/
cc. ons from/ons from the UK.All from the UK.
-
APPENDIX B
methodology
A. Production. 1. USSR.
The estimates of production of tin in the USSR were developed as follows:
>. : The production of tin metal in the USSR5 was reported to have2 times that/ which was an average annual increase ofercent. On the basistatement bv
the Soviet ambassador
soviet produc-
of tin metalons per/ an estimateons as production1 wassing the annual increase figureercent, an estimate0 ofons was obtained,eported increase in production, an estimate of productionons was obtained
Soviet production6 was reported to'have1 percent greater thanence an estimateons.
Soviet production, in theonths7 was reported to havegreater than in the samo period/ Assuming that the rate ofgiven remained constant in theonths, an estimate of production7ons was obtained.
-
d. An estimate ofons produced In thr USSR8 was obtained by..assuming that the increase87ercent, based on the previous year.
; Estimated production of primary tin in the USSRs shown in
Table 12
Estimated Production of Primary Tin in the
Metric Tons
Estimated Year Production
Estimated Productioniat. Novosibirsk
Estimated Production at Podol'sk
a/
/
/
e/
d/
e/
dj
e/SZ e/
d/
d/
e/
d/
e/
d/
e/
l
This figure is based on tin shipmentsmonth (February)ons multipliedha* shipmentshat production remainedduring the entire year.
figure is estimated total production lessproduction at Novosibirsk,
figure ie the sum of estimatedPodol'sk and at Novosibirsk.
-
Table 12
Estimated Production of Primary Tin in theContinued)
a statement that tin59/ an average annual increase
ofercent was obtained. Assuming90 also increased over the previous yearsercent, estimatesere developed.
almost all of the available datato the movement of tin concentratesplants give Novosibirsk as theit Is assumed that production atsmall. An arbitrary estimate oftons, based on the estimated productionwas used to cover the probablethis plsnt.
2. Communist China.
Estimated production of primary tin tn Communist China, the pre-Communist peak and, is Shown in* .*
B. Demand.
1. Relationship of Consumption of Tin to Industrial Production
* Tableollows on
-
An examination of tin consumption, excluding that used in the production of tinplate. and of the industrial production of six major countries, including the USSR,7efinite relationship between tin consumption and industrial production. In
Table 13
Estimated Production of Primary Tin in Communist China Pre-Communist
..Tons
Production
Pre-Communista/
/
/
/
/
/
0 was reported to have beenof the pre-Communist peak.V
1 was reported to have beenof the pre-Communist peak./
figure waa derived from the estimateon the basiseported increaseercent.
smelter production at Ko-chiu was2 percent greater3 thano-chiu is estimated to producehe total Chinese Communist production, theapplied to the total.
figure was Interpolated on the basis of anincrease2 percent.
of tin metal to the USSR in the59 tons./ Because thisons shipped6 quotas andthere is no evidence of any shipments inis believed that thia figure represents the totalthe year. Assuming that production at leastandmall margin for exports toand some Chinese Communist consumption, a
-
Table 13
Estimated Production of Primary Tin in Communist China Pre-CommunistContinued)
production estimate0 tons5 was obtained.
Because the First Five Yearn Chinathat production7 willimes greater than/ orons, it is believed that5 production was not appreciably greater0 tons. If it were, it would indicate that the First Five Year Plan may have beenears in advance, andevelopment.
terms of the total tin consumption, excluding use for tinplate, and of total industrial production of the countries examined, therelationships were developed. The relationships ofof tin to total industrial production in selected countries are shown in
Table 14
Relationships of Consumption of Tin to Total Industrial Production
in Selected Countries
Country
of Total Industrial Production */
Consumption (Metric Tons)*l
of Total Tin Consumption W
33
60
d/
55
0
figures exclude tin used in tinplate. The average forused to avoid distortions resulting from changing inventories.
except where otherwise noted.
The relationships shown in Tablere also true in terms of total world consumption of tin, excluding use for tinplate, and total world Industrial production. Relationships of consumption of tin and total industrial production in selected countries to total world consumption of tin and total world industrial production are shown in
Table 15
Relationships of Consumption of Tin and Total Industrial Production In Selected Countries to Total World Consumption of Tin and Total World Industrial Production
Percentage ofConsumption Percentage of Worl
Country Industrial Production */ (MetricConsumption -'
US
34
794
d/
82
80
-
figures exclude tin used in tinplate. The averageto avoid distortions resulting from changing inventories.
except where otherwise noted.
.2. Demand for Tin in the USSR.
The estimates of Soviet demand for tin for all uses except for tinplate were derived as follows: reported Soviet7 and an index of Industrial production in the USSRere modified to establish an index of probable demand for
- 42
tin by analogous application of the effects on tin consumption caused by changes in industrial production in the UK. Italy, Belgium, and France. The reasons supporting the application of such an analogy to the Soviet situation are given in then approximate ratio of tin demand to industrial production in the UK, France, Belgium, and Italy is shown in
Table 16
Ratio of Tin Demand to Industrial Production in the UK, France, Belgium, and Italy
of Industrial Production to Tin Consumption
Ratio of Industrial Production to Tin Consumption
Index is/
b. These figures are derived from percentages of industrial production given in Tablesp.espectively, above.
From the aboveatioo0 forproduction to tin demands derived when comparedatio The derivation of estimated total tin demand in the USSR7s shown in*
*bove. ** Tableollows on
-
3. Total Demand for Tin in Communist China.
Becauseomplete lack of data on tin demandough estimateons annually was derived from pre-Communist data. Before the Communist occupation, the consumption of tin in China averagedons per/ of which the major portion was used In tinfoil for religiousa practice which may have declined under the Communists. Traditionally, China has exported tin metal and imported tin alloys and tinplate in the form of sernimanufactures and finishedractice believed to be followed today. Although the estimate of Chinese Communist consumption of tinough approximation at bent, when it is compared with estimates for the entire Sino-Soviet Bloc, the error probably is less than the rounding error.
Demand for Tin in the European Satellites.
it was for the USSR, the demand for tin for the individual European Satellites was derived from reported prewar levels of tin consumption and indexes of industrial production modified to atin demand index by the ratio developed above. Because tin-plate is produced inf the Satellites, and because in each of these countries Ihe consumption of tin in tinplate represents lessercent of the total tin consumption.when calculating thedemand for tin in the Satellites no allowance was made for tin demand for the production of tinplate. Although the tin use patterns of the various Satellites have varied widely, rt is believed that the over-all relationship of tin consumption to industrialprobably is relatively close to that of the USSR. Theof estimated total tin demand in the European Satellitess shown in*
C. Stockpiling in the USSR During World War H.
. The estimate of the surplus of tin accumulated in the USSRWorld War II consists of two parts: tocks on hand at the end*1
* Tableollows on* Continued on
-
TofrsECREi
Tabic 18
Derivation of Estimated Total Tin Demand In the Europeanverage
Country
Czechoslovakia
East Germany d/
Bulgaria
Table 18
Derivation of Estimated Total Tin Demand in the EuropeanverageContinued)
Country
Production Index */
Tin Demand Index
Tin Demand (Metric Tons)
Poland
Rumania
Tabic 18
Derivation of Estimated Total Tin Demand in the EuropeanverageContinued)
German tin demand index calculated from the base yearrather than from the prewar level because data on prewarare not available.
increase in the industrial production index calculatedatioo
available supply in East Germany9onsof/ons of. references, suchndicate that tin supplyt is assumed that the supply was about equal
1 were reported to have been about/erived excess of estimated supply over estimated consumption. The derivation of estimated stocks of tin in the USSR5
is shown in
Consumption of Tin Ore Resources*; Quantities
a. USSR.
* Tableollows on* See Sea D. A,.bove.
Estimates of the quantities of tin ore mined in tho USSR were derived from estimates of tin metal production,divided by the estimated recovery of metal contained in the oro In the concentrating, smelting, and refiningnd by the estimated average metal content of the ore mined. The latter figure
Tabic 19
Derivation of Estimated Stocks of Tin in the USSR
Metric Tons
Estimated production of/
Imports of/
Total548
Estimated consumption of 0 c/
Net668
Estimated stocks, end/
a. This figure is the total ofobtainedpplying theannual increase3 percent to eachyears yields the following figures for produc-in each of theons, k
b- /
c. This figure.ie based onestimated3 which was derived as follows: Tin consumption In all uses except tinplate was calculated fromproduction'which was reported asercent greater3 thanhe ratio of tin consumption to industrial production was assumed to.have remained constant7hus an estimate,0 tons for consumption in all
-
Estimated stocks, end of World War n 8
Table 19
Derivation of Estimated Stocks of Tin Jn the USSR
uses except tinplato was obtained from/ No allowance was made for tinplate consumption3oviet tinplate facilities, all In the European USSR before World War JJ, were destroyed early in the war,arge quantities of tinplate werefrom the US under Lend-Lease, satisfying Soviet requirements for Un in this form. The total consumptionas obtained bythat consumption remained relativelyd. /
* See II. A, I. p.bove. ** "Eye gouging" is the practice of mining only the richest portions of an ore deposit, callednd abandoning the remaining ore. Exceptew mining contractors operating under short-term leases, this practice is rarely followed in tho West. "Eye gouging" is considered to be the markisreputable operator because the end result is the wastingarge part of the metal contained in the deposit. In the USSR, however, the urgency of meetingand unrealistic production norms could easily force the operators into the practice.
-
is estimated to have averagedercent in tin content'; -because of the" following facto'rs: many of theminesiin-the Chitinskaya Oblast, Tetyukhe-Kavale rovo area, and Kazakhstan and Central Asia are mining ores wrfuercent tinn Dal'stroy, on the other hand, the general practice appears to be toepositears and then to abandon/ suggestingractice of "eyes being followed.-which would indicate that the ores being mined probably are wellercent tin content. For each yoar the following formula was used:
where aestimated tin metal production in tons,
bestimated metal content of the ore mined, cestimated metal recovery in the concentrating process, d= estimated metal recovery in the smelting and refining
processes, and eestimated quantity of tin ore mined in'tons.
b. Communist China.
The estimates of tin ore mined in Communist China were obtained by using the formula described in a, above. The total metal recovered in processing, however, was proratedween the Ko-chiu area and other areas on anoasis, and the resultant figures were added tootal figure.
The following percentages were used to calculate the quantity of tin ore mined in the Ko-chiu area:
Average tin content of ore minedverage metal recovery in0verage metal recovery in smelting ande*
The following percentages wore used to calculate the quantity of tin ore mined in Communist China outside of the Ko-chiu area:
Average tin content of oreercent (assumed).
Average metal recovery in=ercent,
Average metal recovery in smelting and5 percent, ft
* Seebove.5 an average recovery ofercent was used (see p. * Seebove, r" Seebove. ft Seebove.
-
TOP
c. East Germa
following percentages were used to calculate the. quantity of tin ore mined in East Germany-Average tin content of.oreverage metal recovery in con- .
etal recovery inrefining*ercent.
2. Regional. Distribution in the
a.
The estimate of the total production of tin in.5 is the reported planned production/ The division of the estimate for:Dal'stroy between Economic Regions XI and XII was based on the following data:
(1) With the exception of the Yanallof the tin- r
producing directorates of Dal'stroy are
: ' . reported production of the major.directorates of Dal'stroy in Region XXI is as follows
Chaun-Chukotka Mining Industry Directorate
(at Pevek) Omsukchan Mining Industry Directorate,
(at Omsukchan) Chukotka. Construction Directorate
(at Iul'tin) t
Total
Tons
/
-
Thus,otal estimated production ofons of tin-in-concentrates estimated to have been produced in Dal'stroyons can be assignedirectorates in Region XII,alanceons unaccounted for.
Because the Yana Mining Industry Directorate in Region XI has been reported as one of the major tin producers in the Dal'stroy/ two-thirds ofons are assigned to this directorate.
b. Khingan Area.
The estimates of the quantities of tin produced in the Khingan area are derived as follows;
The government encourages the production
o* concentrates Dy individual prospectors.
.The production in the Khingan area5 was reported to haveercent greater than/ which is an average annual increase of aboutercent.
The production in the Khingan area0 also is assumed to have been aboutercent greater than theproduction The estimates of productionere obtained from this average annual increase ofercent.
c. Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
The estimate of production of tin-in-concentrates in Kazakhstan and Central Asia5 was based on the following data:
-
(1)
production in Kazakhstan ands estimated.to have beenons,of the productionll in Vos to chno*0 tons by the Narym/ndons byons
to cover the productionumber of small mines in Tadzhik SSR .. nd Kirgiz SSR and that of individual prospectors and geological prospecting organizations.
tin deposits of Kazakhstan and Centralof low-grade ores, mainly in/ exploitation of deposits of this type generally has notin other areas of the world, it is doubtful that productionsuch deposits in Kazakhstan and Central Asia has beenif at all,.
d. Chitinskaya Oblast and the Tetyukhc-Kavalerovo Area.,
A combined estimate of production in the Chitinskaya Oblast and the Tetyukhe-Kavalerovo area was obtained by subtracting the total assigned production (Dal'stroy, Khingan, and Kazakhstan and Central Asia) from the estimated total Soviet production of tin. Tho derived estimate forining areas ofons was pro-rated between the areas on the basis of the ratio of production be-twcen the areasatio8
Ml
(1) Chitinskaya Oblast.
The estimate of production in the Chitinskaya Oblast9 consists of the sum of the estimated production of the following combines: ons byons by Eastons by Sherlovayaons by/ andons by Choibalsan (in Outer/ons to cover the production of Individual prospectors and geological prospecting organizations.
(2) Tetyukhe-Kavalerovo Area.
The estimate of production in the Tetyukhe-Kavalorovo area9 consists of the sum of the estimatedof tho following combines: ons by Kavalerovo
-
BLANK PAGE
APPENDIX C
GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE
A minor metal such as tin, produced in relatively small tonnages and consumed in small quantitiesost of indirect uses, is aon which there is far less information than thero is on the. more common materials produced, consumed, and traded by the Sino-Soviet Bloc in greater quantities. The major deficiencies in information are as follows:
1. Production.
Tho most difficult problem regarding the production of tin is establishing totals for individual countries. r the USSR there has not beeningle tonnage figure, by either country or combine, with the exceptiononthly estimate given early2 in connection with Lend-Lease.negotiations. . even percentage figures have not been reported in the USSR, and In the Sixth Five Year Plan, no indication is given of the planned increase in production. For Communist China, all information has been in the form of pt-ncntages of increasere-Coi
production.
2. Trade.
Trade data on shipments of tin betwoen countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc are fragmentary, consisting of reports offrom Communist China to the USSR andew references of tin shipments by the USSR and China to the European Satellites. Because of the lack of data on intra-Bloc trade, estimates ofsupply of tin in the individual countries of the Bloc cannot be developed.
-
Reports on the quantities of tin consumed in any singlecategory are not available. Because of the differences in the use pattern of tin metal and the derived end products, analogies to Western experience can be considered only as first approximations.
v.
-
1.
2.
. 5.
6.
7.
8.
i7:
CIA. CIA/RRhe Supply and Dialrlhu tjort of Tin in the Soviet S/
^-1 </ -'. Jj 1
Shimkin, D. ey to Soviet Power; Harvard
University. RR CIA/RRI, above).
RR 2.
Shimkin, Op.bove). .
State, OIR. Rpt.
(tr fromCIA. CIA/RRbove).
iii-p. ux; val. RR 2.
.
.5
f3^ "IS, Daily Report (USSR and Eastern3. CC-7. OFFval. RRIA. CIA/RRbove).
CIA. , Organization and Activities of the First Directorate 'of Dal'stroy. TS
ar
Eval. RR
36.
39-
42.
. 4. S/
Man tell. C. L. U. Eval. RR 2'. CIA. CIA/RRbid.
USSR, Gosplan. Oosudarstvcnnyy plan razvitya narodnogo
khozyaystva SSSR. U. Eval. RRIA. CIA/RR. 4. Si"
' FEB. Economic, OFF US E.
S/1
Eval. RR 1.
Eval. RR
L
Interior. Foreign Minerals Survey; volo
U. Eval. RR 3.
U. Eval. RR 1.
(tr ol Chlng-cbi chou-pao.hanghai,pr CIA/RR. 8.
Behre, Dolbear and Company* Report on Operations of
Yunnan Consolidated Tinval. RRIA. CIA/RR. 7. f Foreign Economic Administration, Office o
49.
Washington. Field Report on Chinese Tungsten
and Tin Industries,. Morris, Chungking, China
U. Eval. RRtate, Manila. , C. Eval. RR 1.
| FDD Summary, C. Eval. RR 2.
(tr of Ch'ang-chiang ]ih-pao, U) C. Eval. RR 2. (tr of Yunnan
jih-pao, U)
-
51.
56.
59-
,ao, Tientsin,
C. Eval. RRtr of Hsin kuan-ch'a. Peiping, U)
Eval. RR 2. (tr of Ta kung
C. U)
, C. Eval. RRCA. Metals and Minerals Division. Trip to Kochiu Tin Mines, memorandum by S. E. Lavrov, U. Eval. RRbid.
CIA. CIA/RRroject Construction in Communist China under the Five Year Plan.
EvaTT
CIA. FDD Summary, above). C. E-
(tr of Yunnan
(tr of Hsin-hua jib-pao. Chungking,) Ibid.
C. Eval. RR 2.
jih-pao, U) Behre, Dolbear and Company, op., above).
Eval. RR 1.
Ibid. U. Eval. RR 2. -
CIA. CIA/RR.DD Summary,.
U)
Eval. RR 2. (tr of Nan-ning jih-pao,ehre, Dolbear and Company, op.,CA> Metals and Minerals Division. Trip to Kochiu Tin
,ehre, Dolbear and. above).
FDD Summaryeekly Economic Report on China no 8. C. Eval. RR 1. (tr of Yunnan jih-pao. K'un-ming, U) Behre, Dolbear and,bid. U. Eval. RR 1.
iwieral Mining Administration, National Resources Commission. Nanking. Export of Refined Tin vs Export of Tin Concentrate, memo to ECA Mission to Shanghai, TJ. Eval. RR 2.
I FBIS. China Abstracts, C. Eval. RRtrofNCNA. Peking, English U) CIA/RR. 8.
CIA.
Ibid.
9a.
95.
.
.
17
Ibid. CIA. Ibid. Ibid.
I
CIA.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Air.
CIA.
Ibid.
CIA. CIA/RRstimated Economic Gains lo the Soviet Bloc in North Vietnam.
CIA/RRbove).
1 S. Eval. RR 2.
CIA/RRbove)..
Eval.
S. Eval. RR 2.
0S. S. Eval. RR 2.
S. Eval. S. Eval. S. Eval. Eval. RR 2.
s! Eval. Eval. RR 2.
oqd^Canning Industry in the USSR,
U* Eval. RR 2.
SONLY. Shimkln, on.bove).
.
tatistical Year-
Ibid,
ITSG (International Tin Study Group).
book, Tho Hague. U. Eval. RR
NSRB (National Security Resourcea Board). Materials
U)
tatistical. above).
Survey on Tin, U. Eval. RRIA. Cif Eval. RR 2. (citing; Petrichenkcl V. K. auaiid.iriuvcnnoye nauchno-teknicheskoyc igd.Url'atvoudostroitel'noy literatury, Moscow.
TSG. Ibid.
CIA. CIA/RRbove).
-
ITSG. Statistical Bulletin. The Hague, RR 2.
ay bi. S/
Eval. RR 2.
roicr.
.
Air. . Eval. RR 2.
Air. E.. R. Eval.'RR 2.
GIA. 0.
CIA., Supply and
in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, Tsl
Foreign Minerals,. 81
U. Eval. RR 1.
.
.
FBIS, Economic, Birobidzhan,un.Eval. RR Foreign Minerals, 9 OFF USE. Eval.f Wei-ya, .Chang. "Yunnan's Tin, "yueh-pao (Ccntral'*Bankol
] FDD Summary, above); C. Eval. RR 1.
(tr of Ch'ang-chiang U)
FBISi Daily Report|USSR and Easterno
ITSG.
Ui'U.
...
.
tatistical,. (U. 'Eval. RR. U.
Eval. RRRval. RRval. RRval. RR 2.
-
.
.
.
.
iwk atanatical.val. RR 2.
. TJ. Eval. RR 2.
.
12. U.
XSG. 4 Statistical Yearbook Eval. RR
ITSG. Statistical
.
Eval. RR. (J. Eval. RR 'rrC.
ITSG.4 Statistical. R
CIA. CIA/RR,v niiii
ITSG. 4 Statistical,.
U. Eval. RR 2.
. U.
. U. 2.
. U. 2.
. U. 2.
. U. 2.
Jiuu. .. U. Eval. RR 2.
-
top Secret
.
.
.
.
.
4 Statistical,
U. Eval. RRbid.
. U. Eval. RR. U. Eval. RRbid.
U.
. val. RRTSG. Statisticalbove),
Eval. RR U. Eval. RR U. Eval. RR2.
4 Statistical.I. Eval.. U. Eval. RR. U. Eval. RR. U. Ewl. RR. U. Eval. RR. U. Eval. RR. U. Eval. RR. U. Eval. RR. U. Eval. RR
ITSG- Statistical- U. Eval. RR 2,
. Eval. RR U. Eval. RR 2.
ITSG- 4 Statistical.
U. Eval. RR
Ibid. Ibid.
13. U.
. U, fiyal. RR 2.
Statistical. Eval. RR 2.
66
4 Statistical,.
U. Eval. RR 2.
. U. Eval. RR 2.
. U. Eval. RR 2.
Ibid.
State. OIR. Rptbove). S. Eval. RR 2.
(tr of U)
Ibid.
Shimkin, op.bove). U. Eval. RR 2. (citing
Loroako, P. R. Tavctnyyc me tally, no U)
I
FBfS, Economic, OFF Ji. RR 2.
China7 U. Eval. RR 2.
(tr of Wen-k'uei Wang. Hsin-chicn-ahc (Newolo U)
CIA. OO, C. Eval. RR 1.
Ibid.
State, Hong Kong. Current Background,, Eval. RR 2.
FDD Summary, above).
FDD Translation. C.
Eval.tr of Chung-hua Jen-min kung-ho-juo fa-chan chiang-chi tio wu-nien chi-hua, Peiping. U)
Century Fund. World Population and Production
Trsnds and Outlook, New. U. Eval. RR 2.
196 ITSG. 9 Statistical Yearbook. The. Eval. RR 2.
Shimkin, op.. val. RR 2.
Twentieth Century Fund. World Population and Production
Trends andbove). , 1
tatisticalbove).
-
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. U. Eval. RREEC. Industrial Statistics, Paris, U. Eval. RRTSG. StatisticalN. Monthly Bulletin of Statistics,
U. Eval. RRWinkin, on.. U. Eval. RRIA. ORR Contribution to,a bill tie a
and Probable Courses of Action
S. tate. US Document, C. Eval.IA. CIA/RRconomic Rehabilitation of Norm
.
ITSG. 9 StatisticalIA. CIA/RR PR-Ill, Construction of European Satellite
Eval. RRval. RRR 3.
Gross National Product Accounts, Sj ITSG. 9 Statisticalrmy. val. RRrmy, EUCOM. ID0. Army, EUCOM. ID0. State, OIR. Rptbove). S. Eval. Shimkin,. U. Eval. RRoint Committee on Slavicurrent Digest of the'Soviet
Press, volo. 3. U. Eval. RR '
State, OIR. Rptbove). S. Eval. RRir. C. Eval. RR.
Air. Q S. R 2.
> Treasure,val.tr of Zabaykal'skiy rabochiy, Chita,lj.)
|J | conomic, Birobidzhan, FFval. RR 2.
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