CONDITIONS AND TRENDS IN TROPICAL AFRICA

Created: 8/14/1956

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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NATXOHAL IRTBHIGENCE ESTIMATE numder

(Sujersedee

coii-rncts andocfxcal africa

(Mvar.ce exclusion")

Subnlttee by tte

D1RECTC8 ChVIWil IWRI-UGEW^E

Tbt follcviccor^rliotloM porticljoted Jr. tbeof tMs tttlfJOtei TtoIcUUicecco Acescy and tb* irtelllcer.eeof thecf State, tbe Amy, tbe Rcvy, the Air Force, aM Tbe Jolrt Staff.

Coceurrefi In ty tbe

IMTELLICEJICE AUVXSCKY COMTTEE

on ll Concurrlnc wereciol Aeslstsot, 1: cpcrtcett of State; tho Assistant Chief cf Staff, Ir.teUtcecce,f the Amy; the Director of Xttelllcecce; the CI rectore.usaf; oxd the Deputy Director foroint Staff. Tbe Ataiie UTercy OxlIssIodto the LAC, cod the Assistant Director, Pederol Duroou of IcvostlcatlCD, abstoir.M, the subject beiry; cuts Me of their jurisdiction.

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the rebticteUji between oost cf tbe reralnlrfl eolorlel territcrie* and tbe power* that control thee. The people* of Africa vlll ocke

ircreaslnc deuondj for self-gavernnect vlth little regard for vide differences la their Seeroes off develojrjeot.

r. Particularly In tbe execs unier British control, endesser do^rco In French Africa, th* result Is likely to be or. lr-crce singly ropld enercenc* of rev native state*. In the Delcian and Fortucucee creos,wr meat vlll cone cere slovly.

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C TJj-oufchout Troplcel Africa, rerordless of hov political dotards ore handled, interroeioletween Afrtears erd European *ettlero, and between native* and Aslor-s, especially Indians, infrica, vill alnost certrtlaly increosc. Such demode acd tensloca ore HV.ely to result la sporadic and even sustained violence, particularly ir. oreos of heavy vhite settleneut.

D. The Europeon powers toy *tili hove sufflclcot tire tooderatlng influence through tho lcplenentatlon of liberal colonial policies, vtich pcsslbly night overt nojorhould nojor violencer, ve believe tact the European pever* will

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retain the nlLitor/ strength to calotaln their position for at leost

the next five years to tte cost troubled cress. Bowtvcr, toe decree

of cootrol over the offolrs cf their territories exercised by eetrcpolitan

and colonial eovornaeots will continue to decline,

. erncoDt Is Achieved, there will remit.

fcrtildoblo political ood eccaccle protlera. The in*ability of the

trooeitlco per.cd of sIcckodUc European eoctrcl probably vill be

followed by on Instability erlslnc frco the contest for power betveec

rev states which theraelves still lac* strong Internal cohesion. Ir.

their relotlocchips with the present colonial powers, rev cotlva states are likely to te difficult to deal with. )

P. Meanwhile, the Ccuounlsts and the Arab-Asian states vill be cocjvtlnc with the West for pever and influence. pt will continue to encouraae and support native netlooolisa and the spreod of Igloo os part of its effort toeader ic Africa, particularly ot the exper.ee of tbo colonial powers. Xrdla villontinue to Give support to African ond other ooveDente for independenced for leadership of the Afro-Asien countries, )

G. Despite the present weakness of tbe Cccxjuristo, their influence and tunerteal strength will increase. Recoct aid offers ond various other coves by tbe USSR to extend its influence are olcost

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retude ta core ertCLSlve efforts. With; rest, son* Afrlccxs vill be disposed tu accept assistance fret oty quarter. Moreover, native aovcrnoect* vill bococe vulnero'ole to offers ofc assistance and of fcvcroble trodicc orranccrBDts. ,

B. During tho coretween tte retropolos ocdwhich oro dtecDdiftg self-rule, the US vill beboth sidesdlplcnotle eri! coral support. Where

African ctctes an established tbe IB vill be lrcrccalncly pressed to extend political and econoclc support. Moreover, the US increasingly will be pressed ly rival Afrlccn states to fovcr tbelr coc/pvtlng ceuses. Those which foil to enlist such support vould bo likely to seek old froo the Arab-Ae ifa countries oc fron the Soviet Dice. Bcvever, it ls unlikely that ccet AfrlerjM vill identify ttiewlm cloeely with cither side In the Er>st*Vest struggle. Very few of the revstates are likely to te prepared to oily thecselvee for-ally vith the West;, new states vill seek to ovoid any type of ocreenent that eppecrs tc involve anyto either side.

I. Notwithstanding prospective politicel changes, Western cccess ta strategic and essential row enteric Is will ^eccrally te preserved. Tropical African exports of such ncteriolsreose

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In tha shcrt run, but disorder end unrest noy itqeir production ond transport over the longer rue. Of the ioportaiit producinc orees, the Detcienproho-ly will be oce of the ocst stable, while British West Africa and probably tha Federation of Rhodesia andoy becoce less depculoble sources of supply, )

J. In thef another wor, Tropical Afrieo could have substantial military i'.pcrtorco* In porticuicr, it could jr;vide essettiol foellities toWestern lines off thewere denied Kcrth Afrlccn cr Bear Easternases or the rVMtcrrancen-Sues lire of corx.ur.ication. rt could also provide operational sta-jin^ and supply bases for Western operations elsewhere. Thoof cev natlv* states terZir^eutrol peeitloe ooy resultenial to tbo West of present cr potential rJlltory facilities in their erves. Moreover, ;rcvinc urrest andld probably ;vr, although it vould rot prevent, Western use of those nllitary facilities evoiloMe in the event of wor. (rhree.

SECRET

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Brenda S.

Director. Freedom ofational Security Council, Old Executive Officeennsylvania Avenue, WW ashington, DC -

Attention* Leonard Yorxe '. . ,

Dear Kr. .

This is in response to your ne'morandu.Bi of3 In which you referred to thin Agency material as the result of tho request of Lloyd Beecher,S.

Enclosed, Tab A, .Is a copy of thehichbeen coordinated with the Department of Stateduring a systematic review examination of

Wa have oxaralned the remaining materials and interpose no to their declassification and relaase. insofar asere concerned. We do reconnend that these coordinated with the Dopartnont of State, if not

Enclosed,opy of yourfandum

Sincerely,

fGttEO.

trawdernan

Information and Privacy Coordinator/

6cpt. istributlonihrono

ly GIF ^C- DECAL

' *

SECRET

Original document.

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