CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY washingTon 2b. o. c.
OFFICE OF THEECTOK (VNTELUGENCEt
f'OH: Deputy Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
Hbtes on US-Polish Trade Talks
for the perion enrougn Juneas:
lA million metric tons to cover domestic consumption deficit
illion metric tons to mee^ their stockpile"to reduce" or "eliminate" (both terms used by Poles) compulsoryrain
illion metric tons of grain.
The above grain import requirement for domestic contuj.ptionillion metric tons seems inflated if it represents ar; annual Itercent over recent annual ^rain ir.ports and exceeds planned grain imports6 Thus, wc may assume that the total grain import requirementill-on tone is on the high side.
2. Poland has already conirac-ed for deliveryillion tons of grain by The present proposal toons of grain in. loan package would place Polandosition to eliminate compulsory deliveries, if it chose, on the basis of the stated requirements and the present level of import contracts.
3> Etolish grain imports for recent years haveonsistent levelillion metric tons annually. We anticipate that this level "rf.ll be maintained
; -DATE: 4
* Polandet exporter of grain
Should thedministration find that the peasants deliver the state's urban requirements for grain promptlyree delivery or reduced ccanpuJ3ory delivery system,illion ton stockpile may be partially dravn down. To the extent tbat Poland is capable of providing -jatlcfactory productiono peasants and of providing animal feed concentrates (high protein feeds to supplementt should be possible to Increaseroduct exports enough to defray the cost of grain imports.
V. Polish domestic procurement of grainhannel;;; l) compulsory delivery at fixed prices,eliverieseasantsegotiated higher price, andreerices approximately equal to average prices on contr ct deliveries. The absolute level of compulsory delivery of grain and the share total state procurement of grain obtained from compu sory deliveries isin the table below:
Compulsory GrQln Deliveries infa-57
Percent of State PurchasesMetricForm of Coriipulsory Deliveries
5- Although the Poles claim that an announcement on compulsory delivery levelsust be made by June of this year, past experiencea more flexible deadline is possible. Compulsory delivery quotas for
1 crop year (and to continueere announced In No oubeequent announcement of compulsory delivery levies was made until5 at which time it was indicated that* levies would be continued throughrop year. Announcement fore.'ison was not made until This announcenent wnu delayed becouue of the uncertainty generated by the chmfledministration tn the autumn and early winter ftisont production plane would almost certainly not be crystallized before July or August because the Polish gruin crop consists of winter rye and vheat which it seeded in late eumticr and early autumn and harvested the following late spring and early summer.