QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC JULY-S

Created: 11/4/1957

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM RELEASE AS9

QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SrNO-SOVlET BLOC7

CIA/RR7

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports

Warbtnq

THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL DEFKNSR OF THE UNTIED STATES HTTHTN THE MEANING OP TBE ESPIONAGE LAWS,SC,NDTHE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OP WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW.

entherles to iBsueduarterly

basis summarizing produatloa of aircraft ia the Sino-Soviet The

* iMae* to Mtl^ the request of coasuS^ for the most recent estimates of production of aircraft in the SloTand are

^ nf Changes in the present estimate from past estimates are the results or more recent intelligence information.

S EC-UK T

COWEBTS

Page

1- Trends ln

2. Production In the

3- mwuCtlCii la Europunji Satellites

and in Coisjsunist

' Tables

Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet

Bloc, by5 Through the Third Quarter

7

Production of Aircraft In the Sioo-Sovlet

Bloc, byhrough ihe Third Quarter

7

3- Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by

5 Through the Third carter7

EtUmnted Production of Alrcrsfl In ihe5 Through tho Third Quarter7

5- Estimated Cumulative Production ol Selected Aircraft

in the USSR, Through the Third Quarter7

6. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number,

hrough the Third Quarter7

7- us Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight,

hrough the Third Quarter of

Production of Aircraft in the European

Satellites, by Dumber,5 Through the Third

Quarter7

eroduction or airerartthe bDropcas

Satellites, by Height,5 Through the Third

Quarter or

e-t

Figure l. US and USSR: Production of5 Through the

Inside Back Cover

?. US and USSR: Production of Military Aircraft,

by5 Through the Third

of Back Cover

r

(ORB)

QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF Tjffi raCOUCTlOW OF AIRCRAFT IH THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC

1. Trendu ln Production.

In the third quarteratimatcd production of aircraft, by number, ln the Slno-Sovlet Bloc decreased approximatelyercent frooi production In the previous quarter."* In teres of airframeecrease ofercent vac noted in Bloc production from the second quarter These decreasesesult of lowered production of fighter aircraft occasioned by plant changeovers to production of newer typca of fighters. Slightly more than I* percent of the aircraft produced hy the Bloc during the third quarter7 are believed to have been combat types.*M

:'- Production in the USSR.

The estimates and conclusions contained in thia report represent the best Judgment of ORB as

** Entlmated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc5 through the third quarter7 is given by number in-elow, and by airframe weight in Tabic. For the purposes of thm report, combat typca include bomber, fifihter, and ground-attack aircraft. Other aircraft auch usnd transports have uses under both combat and noncomhnt Eatlmated production of aircraft In the USSR5 through the third quarter7iven by number in Table J, p 0 below and by airframe weight in Table fc, p.elow.

The Soviet aha re of estimated total production by the Sino-Soviet Bloc during tbe third quarterY decreasedercent from that of the previous Ofircraft estimated to have been produced by the Bloc in the third quarterircraft, or approximatelyercent, were produced in the USSR. Aboutercent of the estimalod total production of aircraft In the Bloc, by airframe weight, took place in the USSR, again indicating that, the Satellites produce relatively lighter aircraft than the USSR. Of the estimated total production of combat aircraft in the Bloc during the third quarterlmontercent is believed to have been produced In the USSR.

It la estimated tint total US production of combat aircrafthe third quarter7 exceeded that of tbe USSR by almost JOn terras of numbers and by aboutercent In terms of airframe weight.

Decreosed production of fighter aircraft Id the OSSR accounts for moat

of the difference in favor of tbe

Recent intelligence information has mad'? several majorin previously publlebcd estlmatee of Soviet production Analysis of inforesttlonMoscow

Airframe Plont Ko.ndicate0 tbatlsons were producedplant during tbe first quarteruring tbe second9 during the third quarter. Although theas not changed ashange in the previously published estimate stating thatwere produced during the firat quarter7uringplant airfield

revealed one Bisonhort noseihedral in the first evidenceossible

change lo configuration since Although littleavailable regarding the Beareavy turboprop bomber,of the Bear is estimated to be continuing at the rate of sixper quarter at Kuybyshev Airframe Plant No- Estimatedproduction of the Bear is now ft aircraft. Production of theJet medium bomber la believed to be continuing at aat Kuybyshev Airframe Plantnd at Kazan' Airframe2?. Production of the Badger at Voronezh Airframe Plant Ho. 6tto hnvr ceased during the third quarter the Voronezh Eastno aircraft

in the area. In addition, Voronezh airframe Plant Ko.s believed lo nave initiated series productionew tiarm port and therefore should hive phased out production of Badger alronft.

The lncreai-rd emphasis placed by the USSR on the development of transport aircraft again was apparent in July Ifyf when four new-type transports were exhibited at Vnukovo Airfield in Moscow. Or these,

Production of combat aircraft In the USSR> through the third quarterompared with that in the US by number in Figurenside back cover, and by airframe weight In Figurenside hack cover. For additional comparison, US military acceptances5 through the third quarter7 ate given by number In Tableelow, and by airframe weight In Tableelow Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet aircraft through Lh* third quarter7 Isclov.

two are believed te be currently in series production in the USSRTu-lfAA tourist version ofngine Jet transport Coneand the It-engine turboprop transport Cet (Ukraine). Itthat thes in production at Casknd ot Khar'kov Airframe Plant, both of thesebeen identified previously as production sitea for Camel - ^

which recently Drougni cne Soviet us delegation to Sew iors ' he aircraft was constructed at Khar'kov Airframe Plant No. mc. Voroneth Airframe Plant No. 6k, which reportedly wsa to begin production of transport aircrafts estimated to have begun seriee productionew type of transport, possibly tho Cat, In Seven pro-totypee of the Cot are estimated to have been completed at KievPlanty the end of the third quarter ngine Jet transport Cooker (Tu-HO) and theturboprop transportlso were exhibited stut neither la believed to be in series production as

The prototype of the Coot reportedly wna constructed nt Moscow Airframe Plant

Moscow Airframe Plant No. yj probably has decreased its output or the Crateiston transport in the past year, it Is possible that the plant amy be preparing for series production of the Coot.

at Rostov Airframe I'luntonfirm that tlte plant is not engaged in production of aircraft.

described the factory airfield as -disused" and the assembly area bull JRostov Airframe Plantn September

evealed no change within the plant urea or in the conditionairfield. Production or the Frescoet fighter atPlant No.s estleated to have ceased during plant area and the

adjoining airfield have revealed apparent inactivity at the plant and no aircraft on the airfield- It ls estimated that Tbilisi Airframe Plant No.aa begun series productionew type or fighter, probably of Hikoyon design.

At thatircraftthe plant area. Although the

impression was that these aircratt were Formersould not rule out the possibility that they eight haveew type of aircraft such as the Fitter or the Faceplate. Since aeries production of some of the new Jet fighters which were thown for the first time at the Tuahino Air Show of6 has long been expected In Soviet

J -

airframe plants, it is estimated that Gor'kly Alrfranc Plant Ko.lso has started scries productionew Jet fighter. Although not identified as to type, based on the past associotioo of the plant with Mlkoyam fighters, the aircraft probably is of Mikoyan design.

3- Production in the European Satellites and In Cocxrunlst China.

In the third quarter7 tho European Satellites produced an estimated total ofircraft, or approximatelyercent of the total production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc.* and Poland are still the largest producers among the Satellites, accounting for aboutercent andercent, respectively,ombined total of almostercent of Satellite production of aircraft by number.

ere received during, aiiegcuiy revealing activities by theto the productiooore modern jet fighter The Parmera tbe type most'

on what appears toeduction in the number of Fagots produced by the Prague/Vedochody Jet fighter plant, no new type of aircraft has been observed at the plant- Until information is received which will clarify production activities at Vodochody, it le estimated that during the third quarter7 the Czechoelovaks substantially reducedof the Fagot. It is estimated that production of the Midgetet trainer is continuing at previously estimated rates. Production of the Crate (il-l'O piston transport is believed to be continuingteadily accelerating rate-

Production of the Frescoft lighter at the HielecPlant in Poland is estimated to have begun inAlthough the plant had long been expected to enter the Fresco program,

revcaieo it, anarescos on the plant airfield. Production of Fagot aircraft at the plant is estimated to have ceased during the first quarter

East German production of Crate transports during the third quarter7 is estimated to have continued to be restricted by

' Estimated production of aircraft in tbe European Satellites5 through the third quarter7 is given by number in Tabic. lj, below, and by airframe weight in Table. Ik, below.

t-fc-T

slow deliveries of supplies and by difficulties in overcoming zoev technological obstacles. odest expansion of plant facilities al the Dresdcn/Klotziichc Aircraftrate production aite, is continuing. It Is believed, however, that this expansion will not affect the rote of production of aircraft significantly in thefuture.

Hungarian production of Max (Yak-lO) trainers is estimated to have been recused during the second quarter7 after anin production occasioned by the Hungarian uprising ln Production Is estimated to have Increased slightly during the third quarter

indicates that Communisthas not been engaged in domestic production of aircraft- previously eatlsated that the facility of Han-cbang wasMaxtbe activity

at this facility probably was final assemblyarts auppllcd by the USSR rather than domestic production of the aircraft. It is believed that the han-chang plant is used currentlyepair facility for jet uircraft rather thanroduction aite.

unese

concerning the Jet aircraft Industry of UUna has been received our Ing the third quarter The Chinese claimed to have exhibited large numbers of "China-made" Jet aircraft onh anniversary of the Peoples Liberation Army in Although it is estimated that these aircraft probably were assembled rather than produced in China, it Is believed that theommunists will produce the Fresco domestically before the end Considering the high degree of Interest ln the aviation program In China and the repeated claims of production, however, it ic possible that the Chin actually may enter series production ofreaco somewhat earlier-

I j

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i

iMHif ijijinj

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llsei in ii

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Ur.lt n

Table 6

US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number5 Through the Third. Quarter7

Quarter

Quarter

Quarter

y

attack

c/

source of these figures is tbe Office of the Assistant Secretary ofandtatistics Branch, US Military Aircraftumber and Airframe Weight,ONFIDENTIAL.

prcllalnary data for

flying boats, amphibians, and llgfcter-thon-alr.

Tacit 7

US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by tftight5 Through the Tnird Quarter7

Thousand Pcunda of Airframe Wclpht

Type of Aircraft

Quarter

7

Quarter7

Quarter7 V

Medlua

Light

.

-

attack Fighter Transport Trainer Other c/

7 7,

source or tneat figures is nee orrtct or tnt Assistant Secretary ofandtatistics Branch, US Military Aircraftumber andOKFEEJtTIAL.

preliminary data for

flying boats, amphibians, end llghter-than-air.

-

Table 8

Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites, by Number a/

hrough the Third Quarter of

Country

of Aircraft

Quarter of

Quarter

of

Quarter

7

fighter

trainer

75

trainer

fighter

trainer

helicopter

trainer

trainer

Germany

total

Figure* are roundedignificant dlgita. Totala are derived free unrcunded figurea and io not always aepee with the avi= of tbe rounded coapocenta.

Tkblt 9

Eetlaated Productlsc of Aircraft toEuropean Satellites, by Weight5 Through tb* Third Quarter7

Thouaaaa. Pounda of Airframe Weight

Country

of Aircraft

Quarter7

Quarter7

Quarter7

fighter

trainer

trainer

flgntar

trainer

helicopter

t

trainer

trainer

Germany

total

include production of spar* parta and are rounded to tvo algnlficant digits. Totels are derived froa unrounded figures and do not elvay" agree with ths sua cf tbs rounded components.

- Ik -

secret

2

and USSR6

production of militaryy weight

hroirgh the Third Quarter7

hn pounds olght}

fi|Wen >nd pound aftKk

US USSR Second Quarter

THttJ Quart*

rfero fe> Sitiimin

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