THE ELECTRIC BATTERY INDUSTRY OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC (CIA RR 130)

Created: 5/1/1958

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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT"

CIA Hi-'

ELECTRIC BATTERY INDUSTRY OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS

The emphasis of this report is on estimates of the total value and the composition of production of electric batteries in the Sino-Soviet Bloc and on estimates of trade patterns, use patterns, and inputs. Production in each country of the Bloc has been estimated independently, the sum of these estimates equaling the total for the Bloc

Estimates of the value of production and the physical quantity of production are given6 and- Administrativetrade, use patterns, and inputs are given only for the latest year available.

No attempt has been made to treat exhaustively the pattern of input and consumption. The inputs given are estimated physical quantities of the most essential materials and labor,se pattern has.tor.-.

Data7 included in this reportirstsubject to subsequent refinement.

CONTENTS

Page

Summary

I. Introduction

and Uses of tb*

of tbe

the Industry

II. History, Organization, and

History and

History and

C> Other

c.

f.

and

III.

and

Bp

Trade

China

Germany

.

Use Pattern and Requirements

Pattern

Inputs

Capabilities, Limitations, and Intentions . . .

A. Capabilities

8. Limitations

Statistical Tables

Facilities

Tables

1. Estimated Value of Production of Electricin the Sino-Soviet8 and

ndexes of the Estimated Value of ProductionBatteries in the Sino-Sovietnd

Volume of Production of Storage Bat-

teries in the Sino-Soviet8 and

Value of Production of Storage Bat-

teries in the Sino-Soviet6 and

5- Estimated Volume Of Production of Primaryin the Sino-Soviet8 and

6. Estimated Value of Production of Primaryin the Sino-Soviet8 and

"f- Estimated Vuluc of Production oi* Electricin the Sino-Soviet Sloe, by Type,,

8. Estimated Distribution of Electric BatteriesSino-Soviet BiOe, as Percentages ofof Battery,

9- Estimated Distribution of Electric Batteries in

Production,

Labor Force of the Electric Battery

Industry In the Slno-Sov:et7

Inputs of Selected Materials for Pro-

duction Of Electric Batteries in theBloc,

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Volume of Production of Electric Battery

Plants in the0

Volume and Value of Inputs of Selected

Materials for Production of Storage Batteries,

with Prices of Final Products in the

Ih. Estimated Volume and Value of Inputs offor Production of PrimaryPrices of Final Products in the

Illustrations

Following Page

Figure 1. USSR: Locations of Plants of the

Battery7 Back Cover

Figure 2. Sino-Soviet Bloc: Estimated Value of

Production of Electric Batteries, by Area

ofChart)

Value of Production of Electric Batteries,

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Figure h. Sino-Soviet Bloc: Estimated Valueof Eiectric Batteries,ofhart)

Figure 5. Sino-Soviet Uloc: Estimated Distribution of Electric Batteries, as Percentages of

:i'> ()

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(ORR)

THE ELECTRIC BATTERY INDUSTRY OF THE SLNO-SOVIET BLOC*

Summary

The estimated value of production of electricn the Sino-Soviet7 was$hich almost equaled5 million worth of hatterles produced in the US Of the value of production in the Bloc, the USSR contributed3 million, or more thanercent of the total. The other significant producer in the Bloc wus East Germany, with about 7of the total value of Droductlon.

The estimated annual value off batteries In the Sino-Soviet Bloc exceeded the prewar leveloubled6C, more than tripled0nd is expected to increase approximately two and one-half times7i67 the USSR consistently has provided about four-fii'ths of the total value of production of batteries in the Bloc- The average annual rate of growth of the value of production of batteries in the Bloc0boutercent. In the US the

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Of the value of production of batteries in the Sino-Soviet BlocStorage batteries uceouiited forercent and primary M- : - of product: :.

batteries in the Bloc6 was allocated to military applications, with batteries for the propulsion.of submarines accounting for about one-quarter of the military requirements for batteries. Compared with US production inthe Bloc6 produced onlyercent of the value of production of automotive batteries but more than three times the value of production of alkaline batteries.

* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the best judgment of ORB as

he term batteries as used in this resort always refers to elcctri bn

*** The term Sino-Soviet Bloc as used in this report includes the

Poland, ond Rumania. Albania is not included, because batteries are not produced there.

Values are given5 US dollars Uiroughout this report.

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The battery industry of the Sino-Soviet Bloc requires significant quontitles of nonferrous metals. The requirements for the oostof these6 wereetricons;ons;ons; and0 tons. Shortages of these metals have limited production or batteries in the Bloc, particularly in the European Satellites.

The Sino-Soviet Bloc generally has been able to meet itsfor Industrial and military batteries but has not been able to meet the demand for consumer batteries, particularly radio batteries. The quality of batteries prcduced in the Bloc usually is adequate for its needs although generally inferior to batteries produced In the US or Western Europe. Inferior batteries are costly to the Bloc in terms of reduced reliability, high rates of replacement, and waste of scarce raw materials.

Although research and development appear to bear with effort! in the West, the new designs and production techniques acquired by the

Sino-Soviet Bloc have been adopted oiriyerious time lag.applied technology ln the Bloc lags behind that of the West

oyoears.

esult of backward technology, obsolete equipment, and the large requirements for scarce metals, the battery Industry of the Sino-Soviet Bloc appears toigh-cost industry compared with theindustries of Western countries. Apparently, only the desire of tile Bloc to be independent of foreign supply prevents imports offrom non-Blocignificant scale-

To correct the shortcomings of its battery industry and to1 'cS inton.is Lo

mechanic and to automategc'scale. This program is to Other countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc have less ambitious plans but also Intend to Improve the quality and to enlarge the volume of -heir production of batteries through research,and training. The investment program of the USSR seems ratiuna: in terms of replacing manpower, which is becoming relatively more expensive, with capital equipment, which is becoming relatively cheaper. In addition, the meehanizatior. and automation of production of batteries will expand the volume of production while improving quality, willscarce raw materials, and will enable the industry to produce new designs which could not be manufactured vith present equipment.

Tonnages are given In metric tons throughout this report.

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I. Introduction.

A. Mature and Uses of the

Batteries are of two general typesthe primary type and the secondary, or storage, type. The generation of electricity in both types is accomplished by chemical reactions, but in different ways.

Primary batteries generate electricity by consuming suchas zinc and sal ammoniac. This type of battery cannot bc used after it is exhausted, without replacing the used materials.

Storage batteries, however,eversible chemical that is, when the battery is completely discharged, lt can be restored byurrent through it in the opposite direction from that of the discharging current. Although the length of life and outputrimary battery is very limited, the storage battery may be used for heavy-duty purposes which require large capacity and heavy current drains.

An electrochemical couple is the term used to describe two dissimilar substances whichhemical reaction resulting in production of electricity. One couple, regardless of size,pecific voltage determined by the chemical properties of thecomposing the couple. The larger the size of the couple, however, the larger its capacity in terms of amperes of electric current.

A single couple is commonly encasedontainer andhether it is of the primary or storage type. attery isroup of cells connected together- If like polarities are connected (plus to plus and minus tohe voltage of the battery remains thatingle cell, and the capacities of the cells are additive. If unlike polarities are connected (plus tohe voltages of the cells are additive, but the capacity of the battery remains thaiingle cell. The voltagerimary cell neverolts for any couple and is commonlyolts. The voltagetorage cell neverolts. The most common couple for primary batteries is zinc with manganese dioxide-Mercury and alkaline couples are in the developmental stage. Primary batteries can le either wet or dry, although the dry battery is For storage batteries the most popular couples are lead-acidickel-iron, and nickel-cadmium. Zinc-silver batteries and zinc-nickel batteries are in the developmental stage. Storage batteries always are made of wet Cells.

For serially numbered source references, see Appendix E.

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Batteries arc usedource of direct current paver for the following four main applications: (l) recurring heavy current drains which require many cyclesycle is ldiflchargeonstant light currentntermittent current drains, and (k) nonrecurring heavy current drains. Storage batteries, of course, could be used for all of these applications, but application (l) la most suited to their nature. ood example ofs the submarine battery, whichoat while discharging and later la recharged by generators. When storage batteries are used in, they usually are putloating circuit, where the battery ls constantly being charged except for brief periods of discharge. Examples ofre telephone batteries to provide steady voltage and the automotive battery which starts an automotive vehicle and is charged constantly by the generator. Inhe storage battery commonly is destroyed after use, unuided misBile. torage battery iseserve battery, and it only is activated immediately before use. Primary batteries can be used in all applications exceptn which they cannot be charged. Examples of the types of primary batteries for the various applications are railroad signal batteriesadio batteries for, and batteries for shell fuses or guided miesiles for

In manufacture the essential ingredientsuperior product, on the assumptionood design, are elcctrolytically pure materials and accurately controlled manufacturing processes. Poor-quality materia resultroduct with low capacity and short life. Poorly controlled manufacturing processes resultroduct which does not live up to its design capability and may give erratic performance.

B. Definition of the Industry..

The battery industry ia composed of those manufacturingwhich produce either primary or storage batteries. Each plunt included ln the industry produces finished batteries, although there are variations between plants in their degree of production of materials for battery components and other products. The majority of plantsstorage batteries receive pig lead, sulfuric acid, nickel,silver and steel, rubber, or plastic battery containers fraa other Plantn which specialize ln production of these battery inputs. Plants producing primary batteries for the moatmport zinc (In bulkanganese dioxide, paper, flour, sal ammoniac, pitch, and other miscellaneous materials which arc fabricated at the battery plants.

Facilities which produce other commodltiea as well as batteries are included, but an attempt has been made to estimate only the

production of batteries, for example, many manufacturers of primary batteries also produce flashlights and/or radios, and manufacturers of storage batteries for miners' lamps also produce the lamps.

In most countries the facilities used to produce primaryare separate from those producing storage batteries because the productive processes have little in common. In general, storage batteries are produced in fewer, larger plants than ore primarywhich require less capital equipment and more labor than storage batteries. Battery plants, regurdless of the type ofproduced, usually are located near the centers of consumption of their products, portly because of the economy of transporting the material inputs to the factory relative to the price of shipping and handling finished batteries and partly because of the fact thatstorage batteries* as well as primary batteries are perishable commodities which deteriorate with time and handling.

Battery plants usually diversify their production. Storage battery plants may specialize in automotive types of starting, lighting, and ignition (SLl) batteries if the demand for the product is large as in the US and,esser extent. In the USSH. Typically, however, each plant will produce several types of storage batteries. Themix can be changed readily because nonspecialized operations and equipment are used. The same degree of diversification is usually true oi* the primary battery industry although exceptions are found, particularly in small firms producing only flashlight cells.

C. Importance of the Industry. 2/

Batteries are used widely throughout the civil and military cixnmunities us standby power sources for aircraft emergency apparatus, hospital lighting, shipboard cceniunicatlons, telephone and telegraph service, and control Of circuits of electric power plants. There are also many special military applications such as power sources for fuses for shells und mines, for guided missile control systems, and for radio coexounlcations; motive power for submarines and electric torpedoes; and conventional SLI service for tanks, trucks, aircraft,

Two important civil uses of batteries are in SLI service for automobiles, trucks, locomotives, ami tractors and in the lighting of flashlights and lanterns. There are other necessary applications of batteries. Much of industry could not operate effectively without the use of batteries. Coal mining operations, for example, depend heavily

* Activated storage batteries are those in which the electrolyte has been added to the active materials and the buttery tu operational.

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on electric locomotives and electric miners' lamps. Hearing aids powered by batteries are necessary to many people. Radiosondes powered by batteries are essential ln gathering neterologicalfor weather forecasting and scientific data for basic In fact, many scientific measuring and recording instrumentc can be powered only by batteries. Future scientific electronicwill expand further the requirements for special-purposeurrent example ofevelopment Is the battery which is requiredower source for scientific recording and transmitting instruments contained In earth satellites being sent beyond theof the earth. Solar-cell mercury batteries will be used to convert radiation from the sun into electric power in the earth

An example of battery developments which broaden the field of battery application is the development of the atomic battery. Although not yet perfected, the atomic battery probably can be used in the near future to power wrist watches, small radios, and hearing aids, as well ao for many other applications In the.military and scientific fields. Such batteries will lastoears and will be no largerutton.

From the above discussion of the wide application of batteries throughout science, industry, and the military, it iB obvious that the battery industry of any country willar-reaching influence on its welfare and strength.

History, Organization, and Technology.*

A. USSR.

1. Organization.

Before the recent reorganization of the electrotechnical industry of the USSRegional basis, all of the major manufacturing facilities for both primary and storage batteries were subordinate to the Ministry of the Electrotechnical Industry of the USSR and were directly controlled by Glava)Ucumulyatorprom (Glavnoye Upravleniye AKkumulyatornoy,lektrougol'noy PromyshlennostiMain Administration of the Storage Battery, Battery Cell, and Electrocarbon Industry). Several minor plants which produce automotive storageor flashlight and radio primary batteries were subordinate to various republic or local ministries in their respective locations, primarily in the thinly populated areas of Siberia. All battery plants are now presumably subordinate to the respective economic councils of their respective economic regions.

* For further details and documentation, see Appendix B.

2. History and Technology.

The first plant for manufacturing storage batteries in the USSR vas established ln Leningrad7 by the German subsidiary of tha British Tudor firm. Another similar plant was established2 by the some firm. lant for manufacturing primary batteries, was established by the Soviet government9 ln Moscow. Durings, several new plants were established for production of all types of storage and primary batteries. Host of these plants were relocated partially or wholly during World War II.

After the war, old plants were rebuilt and expanded, and new plants were constructed. Much of the equipment required by the expansion of the industry came from dismantled German plants. The locational pattern, shown in the accompanying map,ndicates that the industry is dispersed geographically, although concentrations of production appear at Saratov, Leningrad, Komsomol"sk, and Moscow and its surrounding arcu.

At present the Soviet battery Industry is expanding output rupldly, but applied technology is lagging. The Minister of the Elec-trotechnlcal Industry, I. Skldanenko, haa stated that although much new technology has been developed by the scientific researchery little is adopted by the manufacturing In the area of conductor coatings for the plate type of battery, for example, plants still are using the old technology of In the area of pasting technology for lead-acid storage batteries the plants' are still using the paste composition and application techniques0 or earlier.

ecent statement uf policy, G'. an-

nounced that all of its plants would bc specialized and mechanized The scientific research institutes therefore were directed to give more uld to the manufacturing plants. The main steps outlined for Improving production were use of powder metallurgy for making lead-acid batteries, mechanization of constant-flow production, standardization

* de back cover. ** The Scientific Research Battery Cell and Electrocarbon Institute (Nauchno-Issledovatel'nkiy Eleocntno-Elcktrougoi'nyy InstitutNIKEl) performs research on new product types and production techniques, whereas the Central Design Bureau of the Electrical Driveen-tral'noye Konutruktornkoye Byuro "filcktroprivod"sKBnd the Ail-Union Scientific Research Institute of Electric Welding Equipment (Vsesoyuznyy Nauchno-Issledovatel'skiy Institut Elcktrosvarochcogo OborudovanlyaKILEO) develop specialized units for mechanizing and automating various production processes.

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of parts and organization of their mass production, use of pastefor coating the electrodes of primary batteries, andquality controlstatement of policy was rein-

forced and explained ln detailonference of directors, chief engineers, and leading workers of Glavakkuoulyatorprca in/

From the above statements of highly placed executives of Glavakkumulyatorprom, itair inference that the battery industry in the USSR is lagging technologically and is striving desperately to overcome its backwardness by an intensive program of technological Improvement in both product design and production techniques. More concrete evidence exists in the technical evaluation of two Soviet primary batteriesickel-cadmium storage battery. In the opinion of the evaluators the Soviet batteries did not perform nearly so well ao comparable US designs. Impure materials, lack of manufacturing skill, and loose design were the primary factors contributing to the inferiority of the Soviet batterleo. y

In spite of the technological shortcomings of the battery industry ln the USSR, research and development have been carried out in an apparently successful manner. Although the operating plants have been neglected, the research facilities have developed the VDL* series of new primary cells. These are alkaline cells with air depolarization which primarily are used by the Ministry of the Communicatlona Industry as power sources for both radio transmitters and receivers. Although superior to the manganese dioxide depolarized dry cells now in use, the VDL cell has not gone into production because of its higher cost. 8/

Another new primary cell which is important toin the USSR is theIron-carbon alkaline cell. This cellong shelf life, can operate at low temperatures, andpecific power by weight and volume that is double that of lead-acid cello. Although this eeLi Is not in production at present, it appearb that its main advantage will be Its lew cost because itno nonferrous raeta;s. 9/

In addition, Soviet research hasorking thermal generator, or fuel cell, which io being produced in limited quantities to replace truen such low-power applications as power

* The probable expansion is:ovannay& latun' (air-depolarizedhe probable expansion Is votdukho-depolyarlzovannoye zhelezo (air-depolarized Iron).

""" rue battery stores electrical energy, whereas fuel and solar cells merely convert heat energy to electrical energy without storing it. These cells are actually electrical generators.

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sources fnr small radio transmitters and receivers. Research isin the USSR, as it is in the US, to develop fuel cells with large power outputs in order to transform fossil fuels directly Into electric power without use of mechanical rotatingther battery types in an experimental stage are solar batteries, which transform radiation from the sun directly Into electricity; gas batteries, which contain no metal and which use carbon and an acid or common salt electrolyte; and atomic batteries, whichadioactive material tomail currentigh voltage. None of these types has been developed yet sufficiently for practical applications. Developments for some practical applications, however, may occur

Basic research on the lead-acid storage battery is for less startling but more important in the short run than the above developments. The lead-acid storage battery is the bread-and-butter battery of the world, as well aa of the USSB, even though lt was invented Soviet researchers apparently have been very thorough in exploring corrosion-reBlatant alloys for grids of lead-acid storage batteries. They found that silver materially decreases the corrosion of the positive grids and that tellurium, sulfur,and copper, as well as silver, help the negative grids resist Economic application of these findings could prolong significantly the life of lead-acid storage batteries.

Research also is being directed in the USSR and in othertoward batteries which will deliver high outputs at lowand toward reserve batteries which can be stored indefinitelyelectrolyte and can be quickly activated by the addition of itlectro-lyte, when power is desired. Batteries of this type have manyespecially for the military in guided missiles, torpedoes, fuses, sonobuoya, arming devices for mines, and emergency devices In aircraft. Power requirements per unit of weight arc very great In these

One very promising type of battery, which may answer some of the requirements posed above, is thenc storage battery. This batteryower output per unit of weight which is about five times or more higher than that of either the lead-acid or nickel-cadmium types of battery. It is still not completely reliable and dues not perform well at low temperatures, but development appears to be Intensive. In the US these batteries arc being developed primarily for application ln guided missiles and homing torpedoes. The French navy le interested in themource of power for submarines. There is some indication of large purchases of silver by the USSR frrn Cmmninist China. Thesecould indicate that the USSR is interestedilver-zincbattery because about tons of silver ore required toubmarine battery of the silver-zinc/

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B. East Germany.

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Since the formation of East Germany, the battery Industry has been subordinate to the Ministry of General Machine Building (Kinl-sterium fuer Allgemeinen MaBchinenoau). Within the Ministry, however, the battery Industry has been shifted from the Main Administration for Cable and Equipment Construction (Hauptverwaltung Kabcl- undhich was abolished, to the Main Administration for Electrical Machinery (Hauptverwaltung ElektromaochinenbauJ, although it is possible that some comauni cat ions batteries are manufactured under the Main Administration for Radio and Telecommunications Technology (hauptvervaltung Rundfunk-und FernDcldetechnlk).

and Technology-

The territory that is now East Germany producedf German batteries before World^ar II but shared in theGerman development of the ointered-plate nickel-cadmiumhis battery is able to sustain high rates of discharge while having the other advantages of the nickel-cadmium coupleong life,good cold-weather performance, and little maintenance. It also shares, however, the disadvantage of high initial cost. Today the slntered-plate nickel-cadmium battery is being used in many military applications where high rates of discharge are required, such aa ln the starting of aircraft and ln control systems for guided missiles. The battery is still being developed for better performanceIn the US.

It is estimated that East Germany today retains little of the good technology developed and applied before World War II. The German battery industry was well developed before World War II and led the world lo battery technology. When the USSR dismantled theplants after World War II, however, much good equipment was lost and never replaced. ecent technical evaluationadio dry cell produced In East Germany Indicated that the manufacturing process vim very poor and that Inferior materials were Much of theof East German batteriesesult of the difficulty in securing good materials and machinery.

East Germany may have retained some of its good technicians, however, for3 it wan able to produce silver-zinc batteries for the fairly good low-temperature dry cell wasfcr use in Other projects currently under way include the developmentrocess for the recharging of dry cell batteries and the developmentolar battery, lg/

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In general, current production in the battery industry of East Germany isow technological level compared with production in the industry of the USSR, with many hand operations, poor designs, and inferior materials resulting in low productivity and poor products.

C. Other Countries.

1. Organisation.

a.

The battery industry of Bulgaria is subordinate to the Ministry of Heavy Industryezhkata Promlshlenost) and directly controlled by Elprom (Elektricheskahich is one of the administrations composing the machine-building industry.

b- Communist

In Communist China the battery industry up to6 was known Lo have been under the control of the Electric EquipmentControl Bureau of the First Ministry of the Machine Building Industryhi-hsieh Kung-yeh). Since6 the battery industry probably has been under the nev Ministry ofectrica] Equipment Industry (Tien-chi Kung-yeh Fu).

c .

The Ministry of Heavy Engineering (Ministervstvothrough the Main Administration of Metal GoodsKovovchoontrols production of batteries In Storage batteries are prr-luced under the PrazskaCorpora'-.

teria Kati onal. Corporation. Both corporations are subordinate to the Main Administration cf Metal Goods.

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The battery industry of Hungary is subordinate to the Ministry of the Metallurgy and Machine Industry (Koho es Getipari Min-isterium). In the office of the First Vice-Minister of this Ministry

the Klectr -a! Industryhich elieved tc exercise direct control of the battery industry.

The Central Admin tratlon : : trainy Zarzad Przemyslu Kablowego) of the Ministry of Heavy Industry

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(Mlnisterstwo Przcmyslu Clezkiego) Is the controlling organization for the battery industry of Poland.

f.

The Ministry of Heavy Industry (Ministerul Induotrel Metalurgice si Conntructii de Maolni) supervises the battery industry of Rumania. There mayain Administration of Electric Power and Electrotechnical Industry (Energlei Elcctrlce si Industriel Elcctro-Tehnica) formed from the former ministry of that name which directly controls buttery production.

2. History and

a. European

Bulgaria had almost no battery industry before World War II but has organized an Industry of modest size from smallowned facilities since the war. The battery industry ofhowever, has expanded slowly relative to the average country of the Sino-Soviet Bloc and haa remained very small. In Rumania, where the battery industry before World War II apparently wasbetter than In Bulgaria, the industry has expanded rapidly since World War II.

In Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia the prewarwere well established, most of the producing firms apparently having been founded and owned by parent firms in Germany. The Tudor firm was especially active In Hungary and Poland. Hungary has the oldest Industry, datinghereas Poland and Czechoslovakia establishedindustries duringsa. Since World War II, expansion of the battery industries of the European Satellites has been modest in terms of new Investment. Because of the Increased utilization of existing facilities, however, ratesvth of production during the postwar years have been substantial.

In Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, andthe battery industries emerged from World War II almost undamaged. The USSR drew heavily on their production of batteries Immediately after the war nnd still imports from them.

Technology or these European Satellites isby extensive hand operations. Inferior raw matcrialG, old plant equipment, and prewar techniques. All of them rank somewhat below

For information on the history and technology or the batteryof East Germany, sec B,bove.

East Germany In the level of technology and productivity, with theexception of Hungary. In technological proficiency, theseSatellites fall in the following order: Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, RuBania, and Bulgaria. Albania has no battery industry.

Scientific research institutes operate in theseto improve the operating technique of the plants and to improve existing products in minor ways. There is no evidenceesearch and development program in the new areas of electrochemical The USSR apparently Is the source for whatever new technology is adopted, although East Germany also may contribute. Hungary and Rumania have done work in the miniaturization of batteries formeasuring inatrumcnto, and miner's lamps. Thisrepresents primarily the effort of the Satellites to design less expensive batteries through reducing material requirements rather than on attempt to design new batteries for new applications.

b. Communist

Like the rest of the Chinese electrotechnical industry, the battery industry in China vas established by foreigners duringss. US and European firms concentrated in Shanghai, and the Japanese established the industry in Manchuria.

After the techniques of production were introduced, many family-sized operations were undertaken by the Chinese, especially In the primary battery field, concentrating on production of flashlight cells. S manufacturer whoranch plant ln Shanghai before World War II estimated that there were moreroducers ofcells in China at that time, concentrated primarily In the area around Canton. The products of these firms were very poor, having about one-sixth the lifeomparable US product. As might be expected, the prewar industry utilized hand labor for every operation in which machinery could possibly be eliminated.

Since the advent of the Chinese Communistshe state has taken over the large plants and gradually has eliminated the small private plants by amalgamating and nationalizing them. There are still,onsiderable number of small plants producing email quantities of dry cells for civilian consumption in flashlights and radios. Again, as might be expected, the technological level Las risen as the state has introduced new Investment and foreign technicians into the industry. Another positive factor was the help extended to Nationalist China by US canufacturers after World War II. Thehowever, on maintaining the historically conceived custom of producing both primary and storage batteries at the same location has made the rationalization of production processes more difficult than

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in the more backward of the European Satellites, such as Bulgaria and Rumania.*

Evidence of the poor technology ln existence inChina todayechnical evaluationlashlight dry cell produced in Canton. The cell is an attempted copy of the USac" flashlight cell, but the poor quality of raw materials andexhibited in its constructionattery of inferior quality.

It is estimated that the level of technology in the battery industry of Communist China is today no better and probably worse than the least developed of the Europeun Satellites. With the advent of general investment in industry, however, it is predicted that new facilities will soon be constructed which will compare favorably with, and may even surpass, any now existing in the USSR. The Chinese do have the advantage of starting from scratch with little fixedto hinder modernization.

III. Production.

A. Magnitude and Growth.

The estimated value of production of batteries in theBloc for selected, is shown inndin the accompanying chart, The level ofbefore World War II was exceededrimarilyUSSR expanded its production from the prewar level duringfollowing the war. Bulgaria, Hungary, and Rumaniaor exceeded their prewar levels of production Bloc countries, except East-Germany, regained theirerr.^v.

- The annual value of production ln the Sino-Soviet Bloc doubledore than tripled0nd is expected to increase approximately two and one-hulf times7

* The productive processes of the two types of batteries have no common operations and, therefore, afford no savings by joint In fact, hinderojices develop when both types arc produced in the same shop. Other members Of tbe Sino-Soviet Bloc alscmall quantity of batteriesimilar manner, but the plants are separated physically, although remainingommon management. ** Appendix A, Following

F.gure 7

SINO-SOVIET BLOC

ESTIMATED VALUE OF PRODUCTION OF ELECTRIC BATTERIES BY AREA OF

The annual value of production of batteries in the Sino-Soviet Bloc79 million, of which the USSB3 million, or more thanercent of the total. Production of batteries in the Bloc7 almost equaled0 value of batteries produced in the US roduction by the Bloc represented onlyercent of production by the US.

Before World War II the USSR produced about two-thirda of the value of production of the areas now included in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Since the war the USSB has consistently contributed about four-fifths of the total value of production by the Bloc. ast Germanyoor second withercent. The other Bloc countries in order by value of production were Communist China, Poland,Hungary, Rumania, and Bulgaria. Only Hungary and Polandlower annual production6 than In Hungary dropped to an estimatedercent of the level of productionnd Poland producedercent of the value of batteries produced he battery industry of Hungary was the only one in the Bloc to produce less than Production of batteries ln Hungary7 is estimated to have beenf that

Indexes of the estimated value of production of batteries ir. each of the countries of the Slno-Soviet Bloc is shown Id Tablend in the accompanying chart.* The average annual rate of increase of the value of production of batteries in the entire Bloc07 was aboutercent. In the US therate of increase was less7 The USSB obtainedperccnt average annual rate0 East Germany obtained the highest rate of increase, whereas Hungary had the lowest. 0Hungary had the highest rate of Increase,6 percent per year. Ranked by the average annual rates of Increasehe countrlea of tbe Bloc are Zoat Germany, Rumania, Coemunlst China, the USSR, Bulgaria, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. The average annual rate of Increase of production of batteries is expected to be somewhat lower7j than it was0 The future increase ofapparently is to be obtained primarily by increasedspecialization, and automation inR, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and East Germany and primarily by new plant construction in the other European Satellites and China.

* Appendix A,

** Following In current prices.

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The estimated volume of production of storage batteries in the Sino-Soviet Bloc Is shovn inhe estimated value is shovn in* and the estimated value of production of batteries, by type of product, are shovn in the accompanying chart, Figurelie USSR produced aboutercent of the value of storage batteries produced by the Bioc The estimated volume of production of primary batteries in the Sino-Soviet Bloc is shown ln* and the estimated value of production is shown in Tablend in Figure boutercent of the prlaary batteries were contributed by the USSR

B.

The estimated value of production of batteries ln the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by type of product, is shown in Table 7tt and Of the value of production of batteries in the Bloc,batteries accounted forercent and primary batteries forercent. In the UShe percentagesercent forbatteries andercent for primary batteries. torage batteries accounted forercent and primary batteriesf the value of production of batteries in the US.

Although the composition of production of batteries issimilar in the Sino-Soviet Bloc and In the US with respect to storage and primary batteries, there are significant differences in the sizes of subcategories within the over-all categories of storage and primary batteries. Perhaps the most outstanding contrast is the large proportion of production of batteries which is devoted tobatteries in the Bloc,ercent, und the small proportion represented by alkaline batteries In the US,ercent- Within the category of alkaline batteries are nickel-cadmium alkalinebatteries, which represent aboutercent of production ofin the Bloc and more than one-half of the category ofbatteries, whereas in the US lessercent of production of batteries in composed of nlckel-cadimum storage batteries.tt1

* Appendix A,elow. Appendix A,elow. Following* Appendix A,elow, t Appendix A,elow, tt Appendix A, p. 3U? below, ttl The applications ofaium alkaline batteries within the Slna-Soviet Bloc are primarilyower source for radio transmitters and receivers, miners' lamps, and control systems for guided missiles and other weapons. The nickel-iron /footnote continued on p. 1'jJ

-

SINO-SOVIET BLOC"

Figu't <

SINO-SOVIET BLOC

ESTIMATED VALUE OF PRODUCTION OF ELECTRIC BATTERIES BY TYPE OF

-

f iumnj

Another significant difference is that the Bloc allocates to the motive power application almost twice as much of its Droduction Of batteries as docs theercent for the Blot- and "aboutercent for the US. The relatively heavy emphasis of the USSR on production ofbatteries is believed to account for most of this difference. More than IC percent of total production of batteries in the Bloc is allocated to submarine propulsion batteries. Inercent of Bloc production Is allocated to production or batteries for the propulsion of electric torpedoes.

The largest category for both the Sino-Soviet Bloc and Lhe US consists of SLI batteries. The US allocates about,ercent of its total production to this category, whereasc allocates about one-half as much, orercent. Furthermore, in the US almost the entire category of SLI batteries is for automotive purposes, whereas in the Bloc aboutercent of SLI bai.teri.es is of the automotive type. One other important difference is that SLI batteries forrepresentercent of-production in the US butercent In the Bloc.

The allocation to stationary storage batteries is very si mi-:ar in the US and the Slno-Soviet Bloc, representingercente total production of batteries in each country.

rhe percentage production of the radio ad

|

less than those for the same categories in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, whereas for other primary batteries the reverse is true. Radio batteries3 percent of production in the Blocercent in the US, flashlight6 percent of production In the Bloc8 percent in .the US, and other primary batteries (primarily general-purposeercent-of production tn the Blocercent in the US.

alkaline batteries are primarily used for motive power for Industrial

trucks and mine locomotives. Stationary batteries of this type are used for emergency power, communications systems, and railroad diesel starting batteries'. It was deemed appropriate that alkaline batteries be listed separately from the categories representing lead-acid batteries because Ox the much higher cost per unit of weight of alkaline batteries andof the emphasis placed on their manufacture within the Bloc.

-

IV.

A. USSR.

The USSRarger quantity of batteries than any other country of the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Principal suppliers of the USSR are Sweden, Austria, East Germany, and Hungary. About one-half of the Swedish exports arc of alkaline batteries. East Germany supplies heavy types of lead-acid batteries, radio dry batteries, and silver-zincbatteries." Hungary exports alkaline batteries to the USSR.

Exports of batteries by the USSR are also the largest in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, although the USSR is estimated toet importer. Host of the Soviet exports of batteries go to Cocniunist China. Among the European Satellites, Albania ranks first as an importer of Soviet batteries, primarily automotive SLI batteries, with Bulguria andsharing the remainder equally. 5 the USSR has sold small quantities of batteries to Greece, Argentina, and North Vietnam. North Korea and Egypt began to import from the USSR in

Imports of batteries have notignificant proportion of the totul supply of butteries tc the USSR since World War II, probably never amounting to moreercent of the total supply and probably less than that It is estimated that both' imports and exports of batteries by the USSR have declined absolutely

B. Albania.

Because domestic production of batteries is zero, Albaniaits entire supply of batteries. The USSR was almost the sole supplier untilhen East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Hungary apparently began to export batteries to Albania. Albania Imports only the most common types of ba-trrles, such as automotive SLI batteries and flashlight dry cells, and has requirements whichegligible proportion of the production of the supplying coun-tr..

C. Bulgaria.

Bulgaria haset importer of batteries since World War II.owever, it began to export small quantities of batteries to Syria and Rumania. 7 it also exported to Turkey,

* Silver-zinc batteries are under development in the US as power sources forystems ir. guidedimilar use may be imputed to the silver-zinc batteries going to the USSR.

-

and at least, one-fifth of its total production was to have been exported. It is possible that Bulgaria iset exportermall margin,onsiderable amount of re-exporting probably is taking place.

ulgaria received imports of batteries principally from the USSH and East Germany,Czechoslovakia was by far thesupplier of batteries to Bulgaria

D. Communist China.

Communistet importer of batteries, is dependent on the USSH for most of its imports of batteries, although Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and West Germany also have contributed significantly. The requirements of China are principally for the heavy types of storage batteries, especially the military types for tanks, submarines, and aircraft.

Beginning inommunist China has advertised widely Its flashlight dry cells for sale-wer moot of Southeast Asia. China ha^ew small sales to Burma and Borneo and perhaps to Egypt through Hong Kong. These sales are believed to be for prestige value alotiL- and do not reflect an abundant domestic supply.

B. Czechoslovakia.

Ho imports of batteries by Czechoslovakia have been noted since World War II. Although the domestic industry is not large,supplies significant quantities of batteries to Communist China, Albania, and Bulgaria and supplies smaller quantities to Rumania,nd Egypt.

F. East Geimiar.y.

Eastatteriesew specialadio batteries from West Germany. Cn the other hand, itwidely and in significant quantities. Imnediatcly following World War II, East Germany was the prime supplier of the USSR, with perhapsercent of its production going to the USSB. Since Soviet demands fell off rather abruptly, East Germany has exported mciv to Bulgaria, Albania, Poland, liurigary, Switzerland, and Westalthough tlie USSH remains by far the largest consumer of East German batteries. 6gypt received aircraft andbatteries from East Germany. ther countries added to the list of importers from East Germany were Norway, Syria, Turkey, and India.

-

Q. Hungary.

Hungaryet exporter of batteries. The USSR, Communist China, Albania, and Poland are the principal recipients of Hungarian batteries, with Bulgaria and Turkey receiving only ena.ll amounts. Hungary does Import batteries, however, from Sweden, West Germany, East Germany, and Poland. Sweden appears to be the primary

H- Poland.

Poland exports batteries to Albania, Hungary, Greece, andalthough Its Imports of batteries are greater than its exports. East Germany long has supplied batteries to Poland, but more recently Hungary, the UK, and West Germany have become important sources of batteries for Tolond. 5, Poland probably relied more heavlly on tlie West for battery Imports than did any other country of the sino-Sovict Bloc.

Rumaniaet Importer of batteries and relies primarily on the USSR and Hungary for its imports- Czechoslovakia. Austria, Belgium, and West Germany export small quantities of batteries to Rumania.

V. Use Pattern and Requirements.

A. Use Pattern.

Host of the products of the battery industry ore designed for specificccordingly, the use pattern of the Industry has beer, determined from the known applications of the various categories of products and,ategory has more than one use, from an estimated priority allocation among end uses.

The principal uses of batteries are ln (l) industry, including all batteries used aa producer goods tut omitting those used asin the manufacture of finalivilian consumption, including batterleo used as components of commodities for personal consumption;ower networks, including ull butteries used forand emergency standbyommunlcntlons networks,ull batterlea used for voltage regulation and emergency standbyertain direct military end items, including multipurpose batteries which are used exclusively by the military.

- PO

The estimated distribution of batteries in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, as percentages of each type of battery, for the principal purposes listed above is shown in

nd the accompanying chart,how the estimated distribution of batteries in the Sino-Soviet Bloc6 as percentages of total production. More thanpercent of production of batteries was allocated to military uses, whereas only one-half as much, about one-fifth of the total, was allocated to civilian Industry consumed about one-quarter of the total production of batteries.

B.

Tlief the Sino-Soviet Bloc for batteries are being met substantially except for batteries demanded for civilianparticularly radio batteries. Apparently the shortage of radio batteries Is most severe in absolute terms in the USSR, probably because the USSR has many more battery-powered radios than any of the Satellites or Communist China. The disproportion between the rates of production of battery-powered broadcast radio receivers and radioapparently is planned becuuse ziv> production plans of both cora-EOditieB have been fulfilled generally0 Soviet, policymakers would seem to dictate that the public listen to their radios less than they would prefer.

Temporary shortages have been noted from time to time ir.and industrial batteries although the cause of such shortages, wnich was almostack of materials, particularlymetals, usually was overcome rapidly through imports and adjust-ments in allocations of both finished batteries and material imports.

Capacity appears to be adequate for present requirements in the Sino-Soviet. Blochole- Ir the USSH, however, production appears to be at or near full capacity, whereas the European Satel-. Communist China,esser ciosree, do riot utilize th Iv full capacities because of the chronic lack of raw materials.

* Appendix A,elow. Appendix A,elow.

*** Requirements arc defined as actual orders fcr batteries.

- Pi -

VI. Lnputn.

hows the estimated labor force of the batteryof the Glno-Soviet Bloc Productivity of the USSR is clearly superior to that of the other members of the Bloc, for the USSRover four-fifths of the value of production of batteries in the Bloc, with only slightly more than one-half of the labor force employed by the battery industry of the Bloc.

The estimated inputs of selected materials for production of batteries in the Sino-Soviet Bloc6 is shown inhe battery industryignificant consumer of certain nonferrous metals such as cadmium, lead, and antimony. Other nonferrous metals of which the battery Industryess important consumer are nickel and zinc. Negligible percentages of production of the othor indicated inputs were consumed by the battery industry

VII. Capabilities. Limitations, and Intentions.

A. Capabilities.

All types of batteries required by the Sino-Soviet Bloc can be manufactured domestically. The Bloc is capable of manufacturingof adequate quality for both military and civilian requirements. The technology of the Bloc, however, is inferior to that of the US, and its equipment is generally less modem and less efficient than equipment employed by the UB. In particular, the Blocevere deficiency of materials-handling equipment, thus reducing productivity, causing excess consumption of labor, and in some cases reducing the quality of the product. Craftsmanship in hand operations, however, appears to be aa good an any in the West. This asset Is usuallyby poor materials, resulting Tree improperly controlled

In research and development of batteries the Sino-Savict Bloc has progressed nearly as far as most Western countries, although lt is certainly far bohind ln improving the quality of the batteries in lurge-oeale production. Keverthcless, the Bloc has developed and produces far more alkaline batteries than does the US. Western Europe, however, also produces alkaline batteriesignificant scale. The

Appendix A,elow. ** Appendix A,elow.

-

Figure 5

SINO-SOVIET BLOC

ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC BATTERIES AS PERCENTAGES OF TOTAL6

s

depth of experience with alkaline batteries, particularly those of the nickel-cadmium type, moy afford the Bloc some advantage in developing butteries for military applications, such as power sources for guidance-systems of guided missiles. Ln addition. Pas'. Germany especially has had long experience in Lhe development and production of silver-zinc batteries which have military applications similar to those of the nickel-cadmium alkaline battery. On the whole, however, it does not appear that the Bloc has developed any new type of battery with which the research organizations of the US are not familiar.

Gains in reducing costs and increasing production to meet future requirements will be obtained by the Slno-Soviet Bloc because of theintegration and modernization of the battery industry of the Bloc. evelopment will produce specialization, standardization, and increased productivity of labor. The supply of producer goods for Investment in the battery industry appears to be available in thefuture.* In addition, with tne possible conversion of Soviet snbmarir.es CO nuclearhe requirements levied Oh the buttery industry may be reduced sign!fleantly* At present the sunpiy of non-ferrous metals appears to be the limiting factor on production. The battery iixlustry probably has the capacity ti process more materials than arc available.

B. Limitations.

Although the Sino-Soviet Bloc does not yet depend heavily oa imports of batteries to meet its requirements, the battery Industry of the Bloc appears toigh-cost industry relative to the batteryof Western countries, primarily because the industry requires significant quantities ol sea ret nonferrous because of the heavy military requirements for batteriesc has at present almost no choice except to pay the higher cost of domestic production, for the economic vulnerability of the Bloc would be even greater if dependence on foreign supply were to be initiated. In addition, there appears little likelihood of cheaper substitutes for conventional batteries being developed ln tlie near future, although in the long run suchmay be developed.

* This statement Is based on the plans of the battery industry of the USSB to re-equip with modern ijachinery in the near future, jft/

** Recent contacts with unidentified submarines (probably Soviet sub-warines) point toward the possible existence of improved propulsion systems. These systems mayuclear power system or may ben improved submarine batteries. gU/

*** Other significant factors are obsolete equipment, backwardond high transportation costs.

Another closely related vulnerability is of an organizational character and is one which the USSR may remedy with its plan of reat proportion of the battery industry of the USSR was established during or immediately following World Wai- II, manufacturing facilities were set up hurriedly, and in some casesthought was given to the rational specialization of plants and the geographic relationships of consumers and suppliers. There are,higher costs of transportation and higher manufacturing costs to the industry than there would beore rational organization. The most Important result of the long hauls from manufacturer tois that batteries arrive at their distant destinations with their useful lives greatly depleted through handling and elapsed time, even though inspection at the factory irdicated that the batteries were entirely satisfactory. Additionally, destruction of transportcould severely impair the supply of batteries.

C. Intentions.

The Sino-Soviet Bloc intends to modernize its battery industry as rapidly as possible. The new aur.omat.ie equipment developed recently is being adopted primarily in the USSR, ond the Soviet plan is totliit. effortnd presumably to continuep/ Evidently the chief reacm for this decision is that the quality of products as well as the volume of production ri sen with the installation of new equipment. Otherins will be conservation of manpower and rawnd the ability to produce new designs which could not be manufactured with present equipment. In the more developed countries such as the USSR, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia the investment policy appears to be to replace old capital equipment with new eqUipmei:'- instead of merely adding the new. In the Other European Satellites and in Communist China the policy appears to be to build flew plants arid to add on to existing plants without discontinuing the service of obsolete equipment.*

As previously mentioned the USSR intends to solve some oi its problems in transportation and specialization by decentralized These plans may not be feasiblearge part of the battery industry, because of the expense of moving specialized iiiachinery and equipment. The probable solution lies ln gradually relocatingas the bulk of the older equipment is replaced.

The intention to be independent of Free World sources of supply of end products and raw materials largely has been accomplishedore so for the manufacture of end products than for the supply of raw

* The conclusions concerning investment policy were derived from plant studies and from Soviet policy statements concerning investment.

-

materials. Another intention which partly has been accomplished isof battery mutcrials and end products. Althoughcompleted, the movement toward standardization has resulted inby the European Satellites and Communist China of manyt.

out through CEMA (Council for Mutual Economic

* For references to individual plants which have adopted Sovietsee Appendix B.

-

IP

- -

n>SovtwCnlj t- billjiin h

D^ oivn wjo

-ip el', K

w ij) biv.C"

Table 2

Indexes of the Estimated Value of Production of Electric Batterie< in the Slno-Soviet Bloc, by8

3/

Bloc

-

j/

'-

lata

pWtt

JJS--aJ.|ir.u,

.

b. ir< flgur* for aitinUd prefecttoe in9 taw area aa tre figuiai for psatwar lea* Or many,

-

Table 3

Estimated Volume of Production of Storage Batteries ln the Slcc-Sovlet Bloc3 and

m.ii CM'* MovMUf pT'TP'

1MB

1.7

.ft

|

.3

ol total

prcdjotlon

. ofigirr- rij itall ahovn.

t.rt-CunuiliiMkl mo*

Dklai

but Csrw.

-

Table I

Eatlaated Value of Production of Storage BatterJea in the Sino-Soviet Bloc8

%

S

W5

1TO

I

i9ta

0.1

9

M

1.3

M

l.l

)*J

iM

Blc* prolwcUCA

la

ix aa: vi ti- 'utalt -hjim. b. ruuraa for pra-Ccmur.lo: Chinaor aaEioilnatBlj tM sar

e.fir. forpr ati^Uon la lait Carnaiv0 i- for TM Futnr (it1.v

- 31 -

thaaa fo Conntnt ao tha flguri fc

I %

? It

: i -

oooooooooooooooooot-B

5wo o

*

i a

as '

; 8', ftSJSC C

Table 6

Estimated Value of Production of Primary Batteries in the Sino-Soviet Bloc6

a

9

04

U

t

V..

Sm:

84

bJ

. Bjf 14

3

4

Ii

h.7

tjsjmMi 3mj>rj Bjmjmai omMj Immjti

4

i

aa w

3*1

.?

b-l

ol

B. OLirJlr^, ir IM isult it.Cvn.

flir.rti for prt-Cotr.unlKtt'or ivrnliMUli thf bbt

.

e. n*rnr/9 Is for tb*

mi Gtrat-j-

-

tins* Tor Camj

iW

Table 7

Estimated Value of Production of Electric Batteries In the Slno-Soviet Bloc, by TypeX956

7 va

ot Total

CraanUt CMtftt- Tn* of UM* Ctiira cloafcl* 1 fjflJtGt Mm BBIBil 1 . IBS* nfrwuttlaa

SMrll&f,

Aircraft

AotonoOtla. trad, tnrtar. aadBat

0

-

MB

m

100

RX

IB ,JO0

sco-

SuMarlne prnpdfOaipropulsion

BM

a

ion.:

Irs adUB|

far air scmitlM.ina art llaMina

foreUo- oa p. Ji.

Table 1

Estimated Value of Production of Electric Batteries in the Sine-Soviet Bloc, by Type6 {Continued)

T/bc o! iUtlprv

- -

i)

batteries

all typeaoil types

.-,

.

fiattor!ct

Rsdlo

wo

0

X

ra

JOO -

500

100

oc

100

:

total

-

4jTigures nay to: aM tolk wwh. u. Allofd-aoid tyjw arilcsa otinrvln* indicated, e. Pr^luctiwi It knows, Wt eotlTOtes sf itar.tity cannot be ilstlnguUhiiauum r. Prlaarily imposed of ^rncral-purpoa* 3ry "ells-

-

I Sib ^ ssls I

APPENDIX B

MANUFACTURING FACILITIES

Thla appendix gives basic infonnation on each oi" the major battery plants in the Sino-Soviet Bloc- The basic information includes the name of the plant, its location, its products, the estimated labor force, and comments pertaining to its history and technology- Plants are listed according ton alphabetical order by city.

- Ul -

'S

- El -

twx-ci (m-

iwm at[owHmu

"XJWUCBiiO3

umh sii-w> hikMo. umnwtr.*iiiff 'WM

.

KIM1 m

pjim wij*mtw nw-<vi 'fiii

MMI IM

nrlibm

n vm tw>fc4

Cl (MU>M>l MM

InjqIMTM-.WWW M

n dm**mi* iWIai^>

mj ajMH tffiort;H.T

- 1 IVJ tl| . IJ JU1 . .

il MI

tkw*on imn-i > ti wm

mum

i i

inwi^-wiBf; im niH-i

uv-.tf umi mi mum

III a

-

Ill

* 3

VII

S 5

if

HI

ii hi,

cliff IH;

Hi!il!

iiij

iHii

5 ffi!

V |

mil

si

* if

iii ii I

I ii if

Ilnil 1

- -

: .

iw.ol) MITVS

llau

iwmwmm mi -JiyaCi

biihi|bi4 lift- e*-uiw mix.DH> Uniil vKHianwM aej

rr'i HHUMHi11

":'nw

>ll**arsaaMMw*a* jet hp>-U

MtM *lj*Milam 'i: ja- IM

io tUiwarm 'mat laaa; ui#i. -wiei:> jaaae *i

KtllmManasanas "t> ja]Hvnnaa.1

a-fa-aaa- ja aiaj-flOil afra; jc ax ii ia*iC

Hi -mm mrfi annut-

MM

mow

ijltvaa-j

iiiai

auraviw rfa.n

otic

MR

'iwu

APPENDIX C

METHODOLOGY

I- Production.

A. General Procedure.

Estimates cf production of batteries in the Sinc-S'jvlet Bloc initially vere made in physical quantities and subsequently were valued5 US prices. Estimates of physical quantity were made for most countries on the basis of plant studies, although for three countrlea (Bulgaria, Communist China, and Poland) aggregate estimates or anor semiofficial nature were available for several years of thetime series of physical production. Plant studies for thecountries resulted in estimates of annual physical production for atear for each country. The time series were constructed on the basis of estimates of production resulting from plant studiesiven year. With this yearase year, these estimates vere expanded vith official Indexes of production. If available, and with estimated Indexes if official Indexes were not available. Theindexes are based variously on Information relating to technology, nev construction, investment In producer goods, extent of damageWorldnd availability of raw material*.

The time series of production were checked for an many years as vim possible with available data on the end-use requirements for batteries. Physical requirement factors for the various consumers of batteries are those estimated to obtain in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. These factors vere acquired either directly from sources in the Bloc (mostly open literature) or were estimated by modification of factory obtaining In the U8 or Western Europe. Factors for every battery use vereto acquire; but even if these factors were available, the limited detail of the estimates of production would not ndalt their application. Available factors, however, permit checks to be made establishing the correct order of magnitude of the estimates of production and concomitantly establishing the probable ranges of error.

B. Plant Studies.

Information on Irdividual manufacturing facilities for batteries In the Sino-Soviet Bloc was examined for references to inputs of specific materials per unit of time and for references to output of specificper unit of time. Free input coefficients based on US practice It was possible to estimate the total volume of annual production for specific installations ln specific years. Soviet specifications of particular

.

produce types were available ii; sufficient quantity to determine typical product sizes for the various general categories of batteries. These product sizes were used tc estimate both Lotal annua: output andmix. Where information on both inputs and outputs existed for the same facility, the information on inputs determined the total volume of production and the information on outputs determined the product mix, although estimates of total output by either inputs or outputs were usually compatible.

inority of plant estimates, where input and outputwas notactor for labor productivity was applied. The factor used at each plant was based on similar plants in thatif possible or otherwise on similar plants in other countries of the Sine-Soviet Bloc, yactors for labor productivity for the US and for Western European countries were used for comparison. Aboutercent of the total volume of output by th& Bloc was estimated in this manner. No estimates of production for major facilities were made by the use of factors of labor productivity. Plant estimates were checked whenever possible, however, oy documented figures on labor for indications of the correctf the labor force. ather high percentage, aboutol" the plants thus checked produced reasonable figures Of labor productivity.

C. Labor Force.

mated0 by plant analysis. ^Moving the estimate0 toaccomplished by using the Index of labor productivity given byof GlavakJaunulyatcrprcm.

Germany and Hungary.

Current inf ormatior. on battery plants in East Germany and Hungary allowedi the Laboi force t mode directly for

3- Bulgaria, CocenunisL China, Czechoslovakia. Poland, iutd Rumania.

Estimates Of the labor force in battery plants of Bulgaria, Ccmunist China, Czechoslovakia, Poland, ard Rumania were made foryears07 by plant analysis. The estimates were moved7 by the index of production for each country.

- 60

D. ol' Production, by Country. 1. USSR.

Estimates of production were made for thenown battery plants of the USSR and are summarized in* By combining theseountry estimate of the total output was obtained for the. The product mix estimated0 was valued5 US dollar prices. The average price per physical unit of output (metric ton) obtained0 was used throughout the time series so that the value and the physical series increase at the same rate over time.**

The actual indexes of production were given by the USSB for the0 as the base year for the three categories of batteries: (a) lead-acid storage batteries, (b) alkaline storageand (c) primary batteries. The planned indexes5 were given for the same categories of/ 0 estimate based on plant production was aggregated accordingly in categories corresponding to thosethe Scviet official indexes and expanded over the years00 at the average annual rates of increase indicated by the given indexes. 03 the scries were extrapolated at the average annual rate of increase 0 bacl'.6 the series were extrapolated at the average annual rate of increase obtaining0Production for the prewaras estimated on the basis of plant Information concerning damage sustained during World War II, new construction during and immediately following World War II, and the transfer of manufacturing facilities from Germany and Poland to the USSR. The three series for the time63 were added to obtain the time series fortal production of batteries.

Checks were made by end-use requirements for theof submarine batteries, tU:ik butteries, automobile jl? .1 i l

flashlight batteries, and radio batteries. The information on end use is based on/ Another check was made on the category of automobile and truck batteries by comparing the ruble value given for automobile batteries UW the USSR with the estimated. Tlie ruble price per physicalas calculated by Usin^ the estimate of physical production and waa ceapared tc ruble pricepublished5 The calculated prices fell within the Units set by the prices of typical types and sizes of automotive type storage batteries given in the Soviet price book.

* Tableollows on

This relationship is only true within each cf the three categorieslcud-ucid storuge butteries, alkaline storage batteries, and primary The value per metric ton of the total output will change over time.

*

-

Table 12

Estimated Volume cf Production of Electric Battery Plants in theG

l.. itcrare g

Alm-ata Stsrnga

- -r,

lottery

rtf Storag* litUrj PLa-it. Plant So.

Kurt*Batter) Piiot, So.

unva Spaif. Storace Batteryiar-t Storagelantm t* tart Shaidt,

Plant No.

Lnnlnak-Jfoiot-aMy West Siberian tavMiy ff.O

r'ycvo Battery PI art, Plant Do.

Kleccv Electric Call Plant, Rich Ho.

Battery

Plant, Plant Sc.

Padol-a*lllfnt, Plant no.

Toko*WJ

aai lo.

Stsr-asePlan, Plant Ba.

Tallin- IU

Bum* ianarj

arton Electrode Plant, Plant He.

- plants

a. atter/lru' Batteryi

-

z1 T

ladivostok Storagr Battery Plantand Voroahllcvgrad SWracc latterystorage batteries, probably .teCectd).

2. Bulgaria.

Production of storage butteries in Bulgaria waa given6 (actual)7 (plan) by the Minister of Heavy/ With these years as bases and with the informationew plant will probably go into operation at Pazardzhikhe production series for storage batteries was extrapolated forward3 an average annual rate of increase ofercent and backwardt6 at anannual rate of decrease ofercent. All storage batteriesin Bulgaria arc estimated to be of the automotive type.

Output of primary batteries ln Bulgaria was estimated5 on the basis of plant studies. The time series was extrapolated forward3 at an average annual rate of Increase ofercent and backward6 at an average annual rate of decrease ofercent. All primary batteries produced in Bulgaria are estimated to becellB. Production of both storage and primary batteries io estimated to have been negligible ln the prewar period.

3- Cco-.unlst China.

Estimates of production of both storage and primary batteries in Communist China vere made foron the basis of plant studies. Estimates cf aggregate production for Nationalist China were available6i7 for both primary and storage/ the production of the Mukden Battery Plant with these aggregate estimates produced estimates of total output The production estimate for theQ was interpolated between79 on the basis of plant information. Based on un index for the production of storage batteries67lfl/ the time series for the storage batteries was extrapolated93 at un average annual rate of lncreaae5 percent, and the time series for primary batteries was extrapolated3 at an average annual rate of increase cfercent.

Production for the prewaras estimated from aggregate information on Rationalist China Ug/ and from plantconcerning the output of the MwKden Storage Battpry Plant.

The time scries for both storage and primary batteries were checked by end-use requirements using the categories of automotive(storage) and radio batteries/ By assumingbetween these categories and the total outputs vhlch areto those obtaining In the estimated product mix of the USSR,for estimated differences, the total output of batteries inChina could he roughly checked. Because logical assumptions eould be mode oa to battery life compared with that ln tlie USSR nnd

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because it is known that Chinaet Importer, the estimates ofwereo beeasonable order of niagnitudc.

Czechoslovakia.

Plant studies established the volume of productionechoslovakia0 as uell as the product mix. Theof planned productionas/ and converted toby the koruna-dollar ratio established by plantoruny5 US

The production series for storage batteries was extrapolated5 at un average annual rate or increase ofercent and63 atercent. The series was moved back6 at an average annual rate of decrease ofercent, with production8 beinge equal to productionhe production serios for primary batteries was extended forward05 at an average annual rate-of increase ofercent and63ercent. The series was extrapolated backt an average annual rate of decrease ofercent, with production8 being estimated to be equal to productionpercent increase in the output of prlaary batteries was eetlaated to have occurred90 on the basis of plant expansion in

The estimates were checked by end-use requirements ofstorage batteries und radio primary batteries based onnd were found toeasonable tnugnitude.

5- EaHt Oermitny.

Estimates of production of batteries ln Eact Germany forwere made on the basis of plant studies. These estimates then were extrapolated to the years95 by the index ofof "batteries and elements" (storage and primary batteries) given by the East German/ The series vas extrapolated forward at an average annual rate of increase ofercent, which is slightly less than the average annual rate9 Theseries for both primary and storage batteries have the samebecause onlyjreeutc index for all batteries is known. The product mix is assumed to be constant over time.

* The production Index wae computed rrom the production series given In DME (Deutsche Mark East) by thoerman government. The value series could not be used directly, because the value of the currency uced is ambiguous. The values' appear to be very low ln relation to estimated physical production.

From information relating production after World War II to production before World War II and East German production to all Gorman production ln the prewarstimates of output were made6/ Outputs for the& were estimated by interpolation-

The estluates of output were checked against severalof requirements for automotive storage batteries and/ ond were found to beeasonable order of magnitude.

6. Hungary.

Estimate'; ol" production of batteries ln Hungary were mode from plant studies The volume of production5 was establisheduasi-official report made during World War/ and the relation between the output56 vas estimated on the basis of plant stmdies. Thus the average annual rates of growth were determined for the The production series for storage botterlec was extended73 at an averagerate of increase ofercent. The series for primary batteries woe extended over the same periodiO percent average annual rote of increase. It Is estimated that thereeduction in totalof approximatelyercent7 compared6 because of the Hungarian rebellion.

The production series was checked by estimates of end-usend was found to beeasonable order of raagnl-tude.

7- Poland.

Production of storage batteries in Poland vas given in physical quantities for thend the first half/ Plant studies were employed to determine tlie product mix in order to value the physical production series. for the years between those given were interpolated. Thefor thef, *au extrapolatedi7 on the basic of the annual rate of increase7J. Extension of the series6ccoapllshed by extrapolation, using the average annual rate of increase056 percent.

Plant studies established the estimate for production of primary batteries6 and the product mix used throughout the series. Estimates for the5 were based on information which expressed total battery productionercentage of the electrot*chnleal industry of Poland he production of

primary butteries wus baaed on tbe difference between total production and production or storage batteries in the given years. Estimates for years between the given years were made hy interpolation. of primary batteries& was/ For the years63 the estimates of production of primary batteries were made by extrapolation at an average annual rale of Increase5 percent, the rate which prevailed0

8. Rumania.*

The production series for storage batteries ia basedon the study of the AccumulatorJl Storage Battery Plant, which is the sole producer of storage batteries ln Rumania. Production for

theas estimated froa

the plant study, and the years between vere estimated by interpolation.

The scries was extended'3 al an average annual rate of Incr<;ase

ofercent.

Similarly, the production*series for primary batteries Is based entirely on the study of the Electro Banat Plant, which is the sole producer of primary batteries in Rumania. Production6 was estimated froa the plant study, and the yearsvere estimated by interpolation. The series was extendedn average annual rate of increase ofercent.

The production series for both primary and storagewere checked by estimates of end-use/ and found to beeasonable order of magnitude.

II. Trade.

Because an estimate of trade in absolute figures was found to be IrJeasiblc, an analysis was made of trade patterns and practices. This analysis relies heavily on press statements und State Departmenttogetheresser contribution from CIA reports.

III. Inputs.

Tablesndnow the material inputs of representativeof the battery industry lr. the US and the prices of the final products Inputs for the representative categories were based on typical requirements for materials in the .US. recise representation of inputs and price is difficult to obtain with so few* categories, it is believed that the estimates of production suffer

Tables

* For documentation for the plant study, see Appendix B.

ndollow on pp.espectively.

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j

Table 13

olume and Value of Inputs of Selected Materials for Production of Storage Batteries a/ with Prices of Final Products in the US

Ptm at1

and bu*

airoi-art

tr Tana

K>.tvt pOWf

laduatrla) trueduMarina prapulsloa

TMfto

kallTMS IIH.1

lallraM car air:icktiaa bact-Tiaa

SlaAal-aadadaa.ll

ie o(n.ll-at^l

V:'

O

LfJ If)

a

IS*

ass

(ft

l-MO -

v.

- i -

Mil

yy

little error* from this source compared with the errors inherent in the sources used us basic datu.

Inputs orary with the products selected and combined toategory. The error which may be introduced by theof particular products also is believed to be minor in compari son with the errors inherent ir. the basic data. 1 inputs of materials could not be included, Oecaucee vast varict;, otsec* in the industry, and therefore only the most critical and indicative inputs have been included.

Estimates of physical quantities were converted to quantities of major inputs by the factors shown in Tablesnd iMhis conversion may be made for the estimates of production for any year, but onlyinputs for the6 were computed for this report.

Estimates of the labor force were not computed by analogy toin the US but are the totals of estimates for individual plants.

* i'p.bove.

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Original document.

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