THE SOVIET ICBM PROGRAM (CONCLUSIONS) (SNIE 11-10-57)

Created: 12/10/1957

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

0-

107

SPECIAL

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER

THE SOVIET ICBM PROGRAM

CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM conclusions RELEASE IN FULL

(The full text of this estimate is being published separately.)

Submitted bp the

DIRECTOR OP CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE

The following inielligence organisations participated In the preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency and the Intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, The Joint Staff, and the Atomic Energy Commission.

Concurred tn by the

INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE

ononcurring were The Director ofand Research, Department of State; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Army; the Director of Naval Intelligence; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, VSAF; the Deputy Director for Intelligence. The Joint Staff; and the Atomic Energy Commissionto the IAC. Thc Assistant Director. Federal Bureau of investigation, abstained, the subject being outside of his

jurisdiction.

CENTRAL INTEL JGENCE AGENCY DISSEMINAMON NOTICE

i.was disseminated by ilM Central Intelligence Agency.Zl^nl indlcaWdront cover and 12

rasts Additional essentialmay be authorized by lhe following officials within their respective departments:

a Special Aaslstant to tbe Secretary for taU-Uigence. for the Departrhenl of

Chief oi. for the Department of the Army

of Naval Intelligence, for the Department of thc Navy

tl. Director of Intelligence. USAF, (or the Department of the Air Force e. Deputy Director for Intelligence. Joint Staff, for the Joint Staff I. Director ofC. for the Atomic Energy Commission g- Assistant to lhe Director. FBI. for the Federal Bureau of Investigation h- Assistant Director for Collection and Dissemination. CIA, for any etheror Agency

J^ls copy may be retained, or dm: oytd by burning in iwordance with

fr ntturnedM CenEra! toteihgence AKcncy bv arrant-

iticnt with the Office of Collection and Domination. CIA

s disseminated overseas, the overseas recipientsi one >'Par nd ot thai period,stimate should

"tSTRlBUnON

WhlKm Haw

Hiitinr.il security Council DepurUtienl of Slttlr rxuirtccenttrjo Operations Coordlnallni; Board

Fetter it BorMTi of InvNUfaUcs

cuherlbe destroyed, returned to the forwarding agency.ermission should Vagency lo rttanccordance withO2 22

THE SOVIET ICBM PROGRAM

THE PROBLEM

To estimate the probable development timetable and characteristics of theIntercontinental ballistic missilencluding thc probable dale of firstcapability, and to examine the factors likely to affect Soviet acquisitionubstantial nuclear delivery capability with the ICBM weapon system.'

CONCLUSIONS

development has an extremely high priority in tho USSR, if indeed it Is not presentlycrash" basis. We believe Ihat tho USSR will seek toa substantial ICBM capability aa rapidly as possible.

We believe the USSR is concentrating on the development of an ICBM which, when operaUonal, will probably beofigh-yieldaximum range ofautical miles,EP of five nautical miles or leas at maximum range,ystem reliability of aboutercent. The Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Army, believes that the USSR will adopt Initially an opera-

For purpose* oi thisfirst operational capabllitr- is arbitrarily definedotal ofrototype ICBMs In the hands of trained units at completed Uunehlncsubstantial operaUonal rapabUltr" ll arMtrarth- definedotal ot MO ICBMs In the hand, of trained unlU at completed Uunehlnc sites.

Uonal ICBM of atmiles maximum range, and that it will further develop this weapon to thc longer-range system indicated above.

he date al which the USSR willirst operational capability with the ICBM will depend on many factors, apart from the over-all urgency of thc program. These factors Include thc extent ofsuccess in missile testing and the availability of launching facilities,equipment, and trainedto operate tho system. Wc estimate that some time during tho periodohe USSR will probablyirst operational capability with up torototype ICBMs, withapproximating those estimated in the first sentence of

the belief of the AulsUnt Chief of SUff. rnfcllleenee. Department ofear, this Inl-Ual operaUonal capability will be *lih an ICDM Of atautical miles maximum ranee.

ICBMs could probably be produced, launching facilities completed, andunits trainedate sufficient to give the USSR anCBMs about one year after

its first operational capability date andCBMs about two or at most three years after first operational capa-bility date.

Original document.

Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:

CAPTCHA