LATIN AMERICA BRIEF OCPAS LA BRIEF 91/232 FOR 02 OCTOBER 1991.

Created: 10/2/1991

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SUBJECT: LATIN AMERICA BRIEF OCPAS LA BRIEF2 FOR 02 1 .

CONTENTS

1. HAITI: JUNTA SEEKING LEGITIMACY I

HAITI: JUNTA SEEKING LEGITIMACY

JUNTA LEADER CEDRAS IS SEEKING TO LEGITIMIZE THE OUSTERnfUTlDF, BUT INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE AGAINST THE TO BUILD AND COULD ENCOURAGE DOMESTIC OPPOSITION TO

CEDRAS CLAIMED PEECH LAST NIGHT THAT THE ARMY HAD TO OUST ARIBTirJE BECAUSE HIS GOVERNMENT HAD INTERFERED IN MILITARY AFFAIRS, CONDONED HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, AND HAS ICTATORSHIP.

cedras also promised that the army hill safeguard the legislature if

egislative vote endorsing the

** * * * 1

CEDRAS REPORTEDLY HAS DIRECTED POLICE TO SHOOT AIR TO DISBURSE "TROUBLEMAKERS."OLICY HE INTENDS TO DAY OR THO. HOHEVER, SOME SOLDIERS ARE KILLINGAND FIRING ON GATHERING CROHDS, ACCORDING TO THE PEOPLE ARE NOH DEAD.

AR1ST IDE HAS CONDEMNED THE ARMY'S BRUTALITY AND VOHED TOHAITI. HE ACCUSED CEDRAS OF MASTERMINDING THE COUP AND HASFOREIGN GOVERNMENTS TO CUT OFF AID.T IDE REPORTEDLY PLANSFOR INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT TO RESTORE HIS GOVERNMENT AT ANTODAY. NUMEROUS FOREIGN LEADERS ALREADY HAVE SUSPENDEDAND SOME. SUCH A5 VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT PEREZ. HAVE INTERVENTION UNDER AN OAS AGREEMENT PASSED LAST

COMMENT I CEDRAS PRESUMABLY CALCULATES THAT AL LOWING THE LEGISLATURE TO FUNCTION HOULD CALM HAITIAN POLITICAL LEADERS AND HEAD OFF CALLS FOR A POPULAR UPRISING. NEVERTHELESS. MOST POLITICIANS ARE LIKELY TO BALK AT WORKING HlTH THE NEH REGIME; EU ALREADY HAVE CONDEMNED THE CJJLIf. MOREOVER, THE MILITARY KILLINGS, APPARENTLY AGAINST CEDRAS'S ORDERS. SUGGEST HE MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH

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CONTROL OVER HIDLEVEL OFFICERS AND ENLISTED TROOPS TO CARRY OUT HIS PLANS.

EMBOLDENED BV INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE AND ARISTIDE'S STATEMENTS. DOMESTIC OPPOSITION PROBABLY WILL INCREASE IN COMING DAYS, ESPECIALLY IF THE MILITARY EASES PRESSURE. THE NEW REGIME HILL LOSE MUCH OF THE0 MILLION IN FOREIGN AID PLEDGED TO THE AR1ST IDE GOVERNMENT OVER THE NEXT ONTHS> WHICH ALMOST CERTAINLY ENSURES THAT HAITI'S ECONOMIC DECLINE WILL ACCELERATE.

BIOS

HAITIi RULING TROIKA

COL. ALIX SUVA AND COL. HENRI ROBERT MARC-CHARLES HAVE GEN. RAOUL CEDRAS IN GOVERNING HAITI. ALL ARE GRADUATES OF MILITARY ACADEMY AND HAVE LONGSTANDING TIES AND FACTS THAT SUGGEST THE GROUP HILL REMAIN COHESIVE, AT THE SHORT TERM.THEM AS PRO-US I THEY

ALMOST CERTAINLY HOPfc IU PARLAY REVIOUSLY WITH US OFFICIALS INTO CONTINUED AID FROM THE ILLEGAL REMOVAL OF PRESIDENT ARI ST IDE. THEY PROFESS COMMITTED TO DEMOCRATIC RULE.

COL. ALIX SILVA . . . REGARDED AS ONE OF HAITIAN MOST COMPETENT, PROFESSIONAL OFFICERS . . . TRAINING IN US. INCLUDING DEFENSE LANGUAGE INSTITUTE . . ELECTION SECURITY COMMISSION IN0 . . . MADEDEFENSE FORCE BY ARISTIDE IN FEBRUARY! DEPUTYCHIEF IU JULY . . .

HENRI ROBERT MARC-CHARLES . . .

FORMfaH LUnnANUfcK, HUK bhLURllVI UfcPUIT LUriHANULk, . . .

SECRETARY TO PRESIDENT PROSPER AVRIL DURING9 . . . POSTED TO WASHINGTON AS MILITARY ATTACHE IN JULY THIS YEAR BY CEDRAS . . . AGE

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