INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS SITUATION REPORT

Created: 1/1/1992

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

LAST YEAR, COCAINE TRAFFICKERS IK COLOMBIA, PERU, ANO BOLIVIA CAME UNDER THE STRONGEST PRESSURE YET FROM GOVERNMENT INTERDICTION AND LAW ENFORCEMENT EFFORTS. I" COLOMBIA, PRESIDENT GAVIRIA'S EMPHASISEFORMED JUDICIAL SYSTEM AND CONTINUED ATTACKS AGAINST PROCESSING FACILITIES SEIZED THE INITIATIVE AGAINST MEDELLIN AND CALI TRAFFICKERS. AN INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE INTERDICTION PROGRAM IN BOLIVIA, IN CONJUNCTIONLEA-BARGAIN PROGRAM TO INDUCE THE SURRENDER OF DRUG RINGLEADERS, RESULTED IN MAJOR DISRUPTIONS OF TRAFFICKING. THE ANTIDRUG EFFORT INBY SEVERE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AND THE MOST SERIOUS INSURGENCY IN THEONLY MARGINAL PROGRESS, BUT PRESIDENT FUJIMORI PROVES MORE INCLINED THAN HIS PREDECESSOR TO COOPERATE WITH THE UNITED STATES.|

NONETHELESS, NARCOTICS PRODUCTION AND TRANSSHIPMENT LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. TRAFFICKER EFFORTS TO ADAPTORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WILL CHALLENGE ALL THE ANDEAN GOVERNMENTS TO SUSTAIN PRESSURE AND CONVICT TOP KINGPINS. WHILE LIKELY TO FURTHER IMPROVE COOPERATION WITH US COUNTERNARCOTICS EFFORTS, ALL THREE GOVERNMENTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SENSITIVE TO PUBLIC OPPOSITION TO CERTAIN ELEMENTS OF US POLICY. |

COLOMBIA

:HE COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENT": ANTIDRUG PROGRAM MADE GREAT STRIDESRIVEN BY DOMESTIC PRIORITIES TO CURTAIL DRUG-RELATED VIOLENCE, PRESIDENT GAVIRIATRATEGY USING PLEA BARGAINING

SUSTAINEC COUNTERNARCOTICS OPERATIONS PRESSURE TEE COCAINE TRADE AND PERSUADE TOP TRAFFICKERS TO SURRENDER. THE SUCCESS OF THIS APPROACH WAS REFLECTED BY THE SURRENDER CF THE MOST NOTORIOUS MEDELLIN KINGPINS, UNPRECEDENTED OPERATIONS TARGETING CALI GROUPS,ECORD AMOUNT OF COCAINE SEIZED IN ATTACKS AGAINST LABORATORIES AND TRANSSHIPMENTS SITES. BOGOTA'S NEXT STEP IS TO USE NEW LEGAL MECHANISMS AND INTENSIFIED POLICE AND MILITARY OPERATIONS TO PRESS THE LEADING DRUG RINGS. FACING SOME DlSl'.np-: INTACT ANC ABLE TO CONTIM 'E MAJOF lOCATHS SHIPMENTS. |

WHILE ELIMINATING THE EXTRADITION OF CITIZENS, COLOMBIA'S NEW CONSTITUTION SUPPORTS TKE GAVIRIA ADMINISTRATION'S STRATEGY BY USHERINGEFORMED LEGAL SYSTEM THAT THE GOVERNMENT HOPES WILL

MORE EFFECTIVE AGAINST THE DRUG rRADE. MOST OF THE NEWLY iSUED TO IMPROVE THE

GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO INVESTIGATE, PROSECUTE, AND CONVICT DRUG

ECRET

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ICE RAIDS ON SEVERAL EI NAN DIAL AND MANAGEMENT CENT ESS Or LEADING CALI NETWORKS LATE IN THE YEAR UNDERSCORED THE GOVERNMENT'S INTENT TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON TKE CALI KINGPINS, WHO ARE FACING THEIR FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE. THESE OPERATIONS, WHICH COINCIDE! WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT EFFORTS IN THE UNITED STATES, REPORTEDLY CAUSE! SEVERE FINANCIAL PROBLEMS FOR THE TRAFFICKERS AND PROMPTED SOME TO SUSPEND OPERATIONS.

RESURGENCE OFENFORCEMENTTO FORCE THE

ESCOBAR AND THE OCHOAS,

WE BELIEVE HE INTENDS TO CONTINUI kTIONS AGAINST THE CALI ORGANIZATIONS, IINGPINS TO TURN THEMSELVES IN. GAVIRIA COMMITTED TO PRESSING THE CASES AGAINST 'OBABLY BECAUSE THE CREDIBILITY AND IMPACT

BOGOTA'S PROGKAMREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE PROSECUTIONS. EFFORTS TO PROSECUTE ESCOBAR AND THE CCIIOAS ARE PROCEEDING SLOWLY,

HOWEVER, AS THE KINGPINS' LAWYERS TRY TO MANIPULATE PLEA"BARGAIN PROVISIONS AND COLOMBIAN OFFICIALS FACE DIFFICULTIES IN COLLECTING EVIDENCE THAT WOULD LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL SENTENCES. TRAFFICKERS ABE ALSO POISEO TC INTIMIDATE OR BRIBE IKDOFS INVOLVED IN THEIR PROSECUTION.

WE BELIEVE GAVIRIA'S STRATEGY HAS THF POTENTIAL TO MAKE FURTHER PROGRESS AGAINST THE DRUG ESTABLISHMENT, THOUGH ITS EFFECTS ON THE PRODUCTION AND SHIPMENT OF COCAINE2 WILL PROBABLY BE GRADUAL AND UNDKAMATIC. INCREASED INTERDICTION OPERATIONS ALONE ARE NOT LIKELY TO PUT ENOUGH PRESSURE ON TRAFFICKING NETWORKS TO FORCE THE SURRENDER OF CALI AND OTHER KINGPINS, THOUGH THEY COULD BEGIN TO TAX THE TRAFFICKERS' COCAINE EXPORT CAPABILITIES. WE JUDGE THE TRAFFICKERS HAVE SUFFICIENT PRODUCTION POTENTIAL AND COCAINE STOCKPILES TO ABSORB SOME FURTHER RISE IN SEIZURES, MUCH AS THEY HAVE IN THE PAST, BUT THE EXTENT OF TKEIR RESERVE CAPACITY REMAINS UNKNOWN. MOREOVER. SUSTAINED GOVERNMENT PRESSURE AGAINST THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF CALI GROUPS, IN CONCEPT WITE INTENSIFIED INTERDICTION EFFORTS, COULD SAP THE EFFICIENCY OF THE DRUG RINGS AND IMPEDE THEIR ABILITY TO REFINE AND TRANSPORT COCAINE. |

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COLOMBIA'S BURGEONING HEROIN BUSINESS

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A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSIONPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION DURING THE PAST YEAR AND INCREASED COLOMBIAN DRUG TRAFFICXFP INTEREST IN THE INTERNATIONAL HEROIN MARKET WILL INCREASE BOGOTA'S COUNTERNARCOTICS CONCERNS IN TKE UPCOMING YEAR. ALTHOUGH PRODUCTION IS STILL SMALL BY GLOBAL MARKET STANDARDS, AT THE CURRENT RATE OF EXPANSION OPIUM

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