CIS: SITUATION REPORT

Created: 2/5/1992

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CIS

Report

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Rattiem Gortmmenl hts announced II willsponsor latks Monday ketween ike Armenian aad Aurkal/aal Foreign Ministers, and Aitrbaljam Is ptaaaiag lailitary force.

Foreign Minister Koryrev yesterday said Russia will tpontor

between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in

Peace TaJkaon Monday. Significant results are not likely unless major

compromises are offered by at least one side, which appears unlikely.

Pro posts Military Structure

plans loililary force consisting of an armyactical air division,oastal navy,matmaM WkWkWalkWaMcall for the trnnsfcr of military equipment ll CIS forces withdraw from the slate WkWaM

Comment: Azerbaijan will have enough to equip its military if it can obtain mosl of the materiel currently with CIS forces now stationed there. The proposed state military wouldajor security threat to Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia and might leadajor escalation in Azerbaijani-Armenian violence. Armenia almost certainly will increase efforts both to strengthen its security forces and loIS military pretence in theM

APPMVID TOR RtLEASt

Armenian Foreign Minister Hovannisian and Iranian Foreign Minister VcLayati in Tehran have agreed to establish full diplomatic relations, to increase bilateralIranian natural gas sales loto open border crossings. Hovannisian also asked Inn to help media* the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. ^ggM

Comment: Ties to Iran will help Armenia offset increasing Turkish influence in the region, particularly in Azerbaijan, and will ease the effects of Azerbaijan's energy blockade. Armenia probably docs not want Iran toajor role in any negotiations, but it continues trying to internationalize the dispute. Tehran wants lo expand its ties and influence in ihe Caucasus and Central Asia and is. to some extent, in competition with Turkey in the region. Bj

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