HEREWITH SUPPORT CABLE FOR MIDDLE EAST BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 07 DECEMBER 1991

Created: 12/7/1991

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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MIDDLE EAST BRIEF OCPAS6 FORONTENTS

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1. SOUTH AFRICA: NEW COMMUNIST PARTY LEADER

S. INDIA-CHINA: PREMIER'S VISIT MARKS IMPROVING TIES

PALESTINIANS: HARDLINE FACTIONS ON DEFENSIVE

IRAQ: SADDAM'S RELATIVES ATTACKED

IN BRIEF mmmmW

OUTH AFRICA: NEW COMMUNIST PARTY LEADER

ANC FIREBRAND AND MILITARY LEADER CHRIS HANI WAS ELECTED YESTERDAY SECRETARY GENERALHE SOUTH AFRICAN COMMUNIST PARTY, DtSPITE THE OPPOSITIIN OF SOKE TOP ANC LEADERS. INCLUDINGLA TO RESUME THE ARMED STRUGGLE HAVE LONG UNNERVED WHITE SOUTH AFRICANS AND IRRITATED MORE MODERATE ANC COLLEAGUES. FORMER HEAD JOB SLOVO, WHO IS SUFFERING FHOM BONE CANCER, BECAME THE PARTY'S NATIONAL CHAIRMAN.

IS POPULAR WITH YOUNGER, MORE RADICAL ANC HIS ELECTION IS LIKELY TO BOOST SACP RECRUITINGEY REASON FOR HIS DECISION TO BUCK THE ANC HIERARCHY.

fMPETUOUSNESS* HOWEVER, IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO ANNOY TO I1 ANC OFFICIALS, WHO WILL NOW HAVE EVEN LESS INFLUENCE .OVER HIM NOW HTS 0WN INDEPENDENT POWER EASE, AND MAY EXACERBATE TENSIONS IN THE ANC SACP ALLIANCE. ALTHOUGH HE IS LIKELY TO STAY ON THE ANCS NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE, HANI WILL FOCUS ON BUILDING THE SACP'S

SBt^nT

BRJKF

Li

BRIEF

OT:EC 91

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*3

3. INDIA-CHINA: PREMIER'S VISIT MARKS IMPROVING TIES mkaaaaW

DURING LI PENG'S VISIT TO INDIA NEXT WEEK--THE FIRSTHINESE PREMIEREW DELHI AND BEIJING PROBABLY WILL AGREE TO REOPEN CONSULATES IN SHANGHAI AND BOMBAY, TO RESUME CROSS BORDER TRADE, AND POSSIBLY TO SIGN AN ACCORD ON_,COO?ERATION IN SPACE,

CHINESE MAY URGE NEW DELHI

ONSULTATIONS ON

^ ASIAN NUCLEAR ISSUES. BORDER DISPUTES ALSO WILL BE DISCUSSED.

W BETTER TIESOUNTERWEIGHT TO US

P THB USSR. BEIJINGTTED TO DETENTE--WITHOUT SACRIFICING ITS FRIENDSHIP WITH StfON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. NEWECTS INTERNAL TROUBLES MAKE CHINA LESSHREAT AND BELIEVES

355 TAT^5FF0BTS TO KEEP WITH DOKI-NftNCE CONTINUES, HOWEVER; nrAPPROCHEMENT WTTH NEPAL AND BHUTAN, BURMA,

4. PALESTINIANS: HARDLINE FACTIONS ON DEFENSIVE

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PALESTINIAN GROUPS ARE EXPRESSING GROWING FRUSTRATION OVER EFFORTS BY ARAFAT AND HIS FATAH PACTION TO DOMINATE

BRIEF

EC 91

POLITICAL ACTIVTTY IN JHE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES^*

THE POPULAR AND DEMOCRATIC FRONTS POR THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE AND THE FUNDAMENTALIST GROUP HAMAS RECENTLY ISSUED LEAFLETS HARSHLY DENOUNCING THE PEACE PROCESS AND CALLING FOR STRIKES TO PROTEST PALESTINIAN PARTICIPATION, BUT THEY HAVE NOT ADVOCATEDOINT DFLP-PFLP STRIKE ON WEDNESDAY WAS LARGELY IGNORED IN THE WEST RANK; HAMAS HAS CALLEDENERAL STRIKE ON MONDAY, BUT THIS COINCIDESORK STOPPAGE ANNOUNCED BY THE FATAH-DOMINATED INTIFADAHLEADKRSHIP TO MARK THE FOURTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE UPRISING.

H

M^^BMVALTHOUGH ALL THREE GROUPS AFB FRUSTRATED WITH FATAH'S DOMINATION OF THE PEACE AGENDA AND ITS GROWING INFLUENCE IN THE UPRISING, THE FAILURE OF THE DFLP-PFLP STRIKE PROBABLY WILL DETER THESE TWO PROM LAUNCHING MAJOR INITIATIVES IN THE NEAR TERM. THE -TIMING OF THE STRIKE BY HAMAS ALSO INDICATES ITS RELUCTANCE WILLS WITH FATAH WHILE ARAFAT'S PACTION HAS THE INITIATIVE.

RECENTLY ATTACKED SOME OF SADDAM

5. IRAQ: SADDAM'S RELATIVES ATTACKED

HAVJ

gunmen!

husayn's close rblaw _

baghdad last monthwounded in_twq separate attacks in

S^attfnnaB HUSAW KAMIL HAVE^

ATTACKS AGAINST REGIMESSO ATTEMPT SIMILARCURRENTO PPTGREATER

13

1

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SECRET

APRICA

SOUTH AFRICAN

^SiSFS DE *LERK TO VISIT USSR NEXT FRIDAY . . . PRAISED ANC ExfFSSF "ANDBLA'S HANDLING OF NEGOTIATIONS . . . ALMOST CERTAINLY HILL DISCUSS ESTABLISHING PULL DIPLOMATIC TlBs/gmm^ CERTAINLY

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