LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 31 JANUARY 1992.

Created: 1/31/1992

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

THIS OMBINED HESSACE HIHIIIIIH/

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SUBJECT: LATIN AMERICA i. * 31 JANUARY

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MOST ENLISTED TROOPS AND SOME KEY BUSINESSMEN STRONGLY OPPOSE THEODORE'S NOMINATION. IN ADDITION. ARISTIDE'S INTENSIFIED CALLS FDR THE OUSTER OF ARMED FORCES COMMANDER CEDRAS ARE UNACCEPTABLE TO MOST POLITICAL AND MILITARY ELITES. THE LEGISLATURE, WHICH MUST APPROVE THE NOMINATION, IS BADLY SPLINTERED; ON MONDAY THE LOWER HOUSE

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VOICED OBJECTIONS TO THE SENATE'S SUSPENSION OF OAS-SPONSORED TALKS UNTIL EARLY NEXT MONTH. "

FAR RIGHT ISOLATING CEDRAS

IMPASSE HASANGEROUS POLITICAL VACUUM THAT THE FAR RIGHT IS EXPLOITING TO UNDERCUT CEDRAS AND INCREASE IT; Tl

NEERED LAST SATURDAY'S ATTACK ONOF OTHER REGIME HARDLINERS. THE NEXT DAY HE TO PUNISH THE ATTACKERS. THE POLICEHAS BEEN RECEIVING MONEY FROM 5EVERAL TO ENSURE HIS CONTINUED OPPOSITION TO ARISTIDE'STHE ALLEGIANCE OF HIS TROOPS. IN ADDITION TO CONTROLLINGPORT-AU-PRINCE POLICE. FRANCOIS HAS RECRUITED ABOUT THUGS HEL^JJJFORPERSONAL PROTECTION AND OF VIOLENCE. CAN CQUNT ON SOME SJPPOK7

WITHIN KEY MILITARYN^ThE CAPITAL.

AND DUVAL TROOPS, FURTHERRE LOYAL TO HIM, INFLUENCE IN THE AND HIS CRONIES

LEADERS, CASHIERED ARMY , A'-.zNG TO BUY SUPPORT AMONG THE

MODERATE MILITARY OFFICERS, WHO FEEL THREATENED BY GROWING DUVAL IE RI ST CONSIDERING MOVING AGAINST FRANCOIS

BAZIN, WHO HAS INFLUENCE IN THE SENATE, HOULD LIKE TO BE HIMSELF BEEN WORKING AGAINST THEODOR

NOMINATION.

AS RIGHTHING EXTREMISTS FLEX THEIR MUSCLE AND TURN TO VIOLENCE, MODERATES MAY BE INCREASINGLY TEMPTED TO CAST THEIR LOT HITH THEM. ALTHOUGH THE REGIME MAY STRING OUT NEGOTIATIONS A LITTLE LONGER, HARDLINERS. IN THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS, PROBABLY WILL IMPOSE THEIR OWN SOLUTION, SUCH AS CALLING A NEW ELECTION, WHICH WOULD PERMANENTLY BLOCK ARISTIDE'S RETURN.

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FACTORS INFLUENCING HAITIAN MIGRATION

MOST HAITIAN MIGRANTS ARE ECONOMIC REFUGEES HOPING TO FIND EMPLOYMENT IN THE US. ACCORDING TO THE US COAST 6UAR0. THE TYPICAL MIGRANT PICKED UP IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS HAS BEEN AN UNMARRIED MALE BLUE-COLLAR WORKER IN HIS MIDTWENTIES WHO RECENTLY LOST HIS JOB AND CLAIMS TO BE ETTER LIFE IN THE US. OVER THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER. WHOLE FAMILIES INCREASINGLY HAVE BEEN AMONG THE MIGRANTS MOST MIGRANTS RELOCATED TO VENEZUELA AND HONDURAS, BUT SOME WHO WERE "SCREENED OUT" AT GUANTANAMO HAVE REQUESTED REPATRIATION, REINFORCING THE VIEW THAT THEY ARE NOT FLEEING PERSECUTIONTARVATION. SEVERAL FACTORS MAY HAVE SPARKEE THE MOST RECENT SURGE:

PERCEPTIONS OF US POLICY. HAITIANS PROBABLY ARE AWARE THAT LARGER NUMBERS OF MIGRANTS ARE BEING LET INTO THE US. ENTREPRENEURS WHO ASSIST THE MIGRANTS PROBABLY ARE PUBLICIZING THE FACT TO ENTICE MORE CUSTOMERS.

WEATHER. BECAUSE MIGRANT BOATS ARE ILL EQUIPPED FOR THE HIGH SEAS, FLOWS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN BAD WEATHER. ACCORDING TO THE COAST GUARD, THE WEATHER HAS RECENTLY IMPROVED.

BUSINESS ANO REGIME ENCOURAGEMENT. BUSINESS ANO REGIME LEADERS, DISPLEASED BY THE RECENT EFFORTS TO PROMOTE THEODORE'S PRIME-MINISTERSHIP. MAY AGAIN BE TRYING TOIGNAL TO WASHINGTON BY ENCOURAGING LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY.

IMPACT OF THE EMBARGO. THE EMBARGO HAS HELPED CREATE A LAR6E POOL OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS WHO WOULD NOW BE TEMPTED TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY IN SEARCH OF WORK. MOREOVER, POPULAR HOPES FOR ARISTIDE'SA QUICK LIFTING OF THE EMBARGO--PROBABLY HAVE BEEN DASHED BY THE

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