LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 17 DECEMBER 1991.

Created: 12/17/1991

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

THIS OMBINED MESSAGE

BODY.

FOR ECEMBER

SUBJECT: LATIN AMERICA1 .

CONTENTS

MILITARY LEADERS REPORTEDLY ARE HILLING TO ACCEPT NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT THAT HOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW PRESIDENT ARISTIDE'S CONDITIONAL RETURN TO HAITI, BUT THEIR ABILITY TO !NTAIN SUCH SUPPORT IN THE ARMED FORCES HILL BE TESTED SOON.

WHOIS

ARMED FORCES COMMANDER CEDRAS REPORTEDLY BELIEVES THAT WOULD ACCEPT ARISTIDE'S REINSTATEMENT EH BY CENTRIST MARC BAZIN OR POSSIBLY LEFTIST RENE THEODORE lii^^MCTIDNING CHIEF FRANCOIS

with^ht^TtjtjTsT-Jd VeVemEWtly ANTI-ARISTIDE. TOLD

HOWEVER. THAT BAZIN IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE HE ARMY. MOREOVER, REGIME OFFICIALS REPORTEDLY PLAN TO GO AHEAD RESIDENTIAL ELECTION IF ARISTIDE REJECTS BAZIN.

COMMENT: IF LEGISLATORS BACK AWAY FROM BAZIN OR TALKS DfAG ON, MILITARY SUPPORT EGOTIATED SETTLEMENT HOULD ERODE SHAFPLY. RIVALRIES AMONG UNITS CONTINUE, AND MOST ENLISTED TROOPS STILL DISTRUST OFFICERS, WHO THEY EARLIER SUSPECTED WERE READY TO ACCEPT ARISTIDE'S IMMEDIATE RETURN.BELIEVES HE EVENTUALLY

ARISTIDE'S RETURN; HE CANNOT YET ORDER THEM TO DO SO.

>f1

EVEN BAZIN'S INSTALLATION MOULD BELBEIT TOWARD ARISTIDE'S REINSTATEMENT; OFFICERS AND TROOPS WOULD ALSO INSIST THATAMILIAR SENIOR AS CEDRAS--SERVE AS ARMED FORCES COMMANDER ANDOREIGN OBSERVER MISSION MONITOR ARISTIDE'S ADHERENCE TO AN ACCORD.

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