LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 04 OCTOBER 1991.

Created: 10/4/1991

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

THIS IS A COM3INED MESSAGE

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SUBJECT: LATIN AMERICA fQ9 ocroBE*

CONTENTS

IN THE FACE OF GROWING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE. THE MILITARY REGIME THAT REPLACED PRESIDENT ARISTIDE PROBABLY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING POWER FOR LONG. INTERIM LEADER BRIGADIER GENERAL CEDRAS AND OTHER SENIOR OFFICERS APPEAR TO RECOGNIZE THEIR TENUOUS POSITION. BUT THEY HAVE LITTLE MANEUVERING ROOM TO NEGOTIATEETTLEMENT. m

THE FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETING AT THE OAS ON WEDNESDAY ARISTIDE IS

JEOPARDIZED IF ARISTIDE RETURNS AND THAT HE WOULD DESTROY THE ARMY AS AN INDEPENDENT INSTITUTION.

PROSPECTS ETTLEMENT ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY INDICATIONS THAT ARISTIDE WILL NOT ACCEPT ANY AGREEMENT THAT ALLOWS CEDRAS OR THE REBEL TROOPS TO GO UNPUNISHED. THE PRESIDENT HAS LABELED CEDRAS A "MADMAN" AND HAS CONDEMNED THE ARMY FOR THE EXTENSIVE LOSS OF LIFE! AT LEASTRE DEAD AND MORE AVE BEEN WOUNDED, ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS.

IMPLEMENTED FULLY, OAS ECONOMIC SANCTIONS WOULD HIT HAITI HARD BECAUSE OF ITS DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN GOODS AND FINANCING. ACCORDING TO UN DATA, MORE THAN 20 PERCENT OF HAITI'S FOOD COMES FROM OF IT FROM THE THE WORLD BANK CALCULATES THAT HALF OF THE CEREAL IMPORTS ARE FINANCED BY FOREIGN OUN'GSS. IMPORTS ARE CRITICAL BECAUSE NORMAL E BARELY SUFFIC/ENT TO FEED THE POPULATION. OIL SHIPMENTS HAVE BEEN HALTED BY VENE21ELA, WHICH HAD BEEN PROVIDING ALL OF HAITI'S FUEL ON CONCESSIONARY TERMS.

OF HAITI LACKS THE HARD CURRENCY TO PURCHASE ALL THESE STAPLES ELSEWHERE, AND CLOSURE OF USABSORB 60 PERCENT OF HAITIAN THE COUNTRY HILL HOT BE ABLE TO READILY REPLENISH ITS FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES.

CT IN MORE

GASOLINEHREE WEEKS;

THE ECONOMIC ULD HAVE DEPENDENT URBAN AREAS. FUEL FOR POWER PLANTS MOREOVER, RICE, WHEAT, AND BEANS PROBABLY WOULD GROW SCARCE WITHIN SIX WEEKS. SHORTAGES WOULD AGGRAVATE INFLATION ANO COULD APPEAR MUCK MORE RAPIDLY IF LOOTING SPREAOS OR THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM REMAINS PARALYZED. MOREOVER, FURTHER BLOWS TO THE ALREADY CRIPPLED

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