SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Created: 6/1/2000

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Regional Notes

EAST ASIA

NorthChinese Ties Ahead of Inter-Korean SorarniB

North Korean leader Kim Chong-il't brief visit to Beijing this week reminds Sepal on the ere of the historic summit tkmt ke hms other benefactors]

Kim ChoHg-U's penchant for unpredictability and his heightened diplomatic profile may portend additional turprises. Kim's decision to defer National People's Congresseng's rlslt to P'yongyang in favorersonal visit to Beijing suggests his agenda may be broader than increased aid and improved ties.

Kim may have sought Chinese support if he is planning toajor new irutiatire at the Korean summit this month, suck as military confidence-building measures or North-South peace taftaJj

Regardless of whether aid is the primary focus of Kim's trip, he wiU expect the Chinese to reward the visit with increased aid flows. After years af having its invitations to visit rebuffed, Beijing is likely to oblige.

P 'yongyang's surprise moves this year, including Kim's visit lo the Chinese Embassy in March and the North-South summit agreement, indicate the North mayew game plan designed to broaden sources of economic assistance and lo neutralize us pressure on WMD issues.1

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