SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Created: 6/16/2000

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Leading Development

To Reshape Peninsula Ties

Analytic Perspective

Tbe Koreas are positioned to expand bilateral relations quickly under tbe Kirns' summit formula for reconciliation- It resembles past agreements, but they are the first Korean leaders to identify themselves personally with tbe coo tent and imr>lementarion.

external pressure that helped scuttle earlierWar con^xUDoc. saber rarthng. and nuclearbeen replaced by pressure for results, particularly North Korea's exxxoauc morass end President Kim'* term, which ends in

Chong-il has recast the South as akgitimate partnera US lackey, nnd his personal involvement suggests heto make concessions on issues like familyexpand economic

The full impact of the summit will emerge over several months. President Kan publicly has said there is much more to the agreement than has been announced so far, and the implementation process will be essential to defining vaguely worded goals.

The next step is to form commiuees and arrange talks to work out the procedural complexities of implementing the agreement- Both sides have said discussions should begin soon, but no dates have been set

Domestic Critics in the Wings

Kim can ride South Korea's summit euphoriahile but could face objections once the opposition scrutinizes the agreemen weighs the implications for the South's economy and seemfty postareJ

sS

Top Secret

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President Kim may have set the stage foe future criticism In bis homecoming speech by emphasizing opportunities for advancing inter-Korean cooperation but hardly mentioning human rights or security issues.

He implied that Sooth Korea's long-term national interest rests innified nation lha can deal with "The fcirRussia, China, and Japan, as well as therxooomrc strength, latherdianommunity of shared interests with the US and the

West

Khaaam

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