SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Created: 7/6/2000

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

To Maintain Momentum

Analytic Perspective

North and South Korean leaders in coming months will strive to implement cooperation in less contentious areas while deferring sensitive issues that could derail progress. Seoul and P'yongyang may seek to expand academic, cultural, and sports exchanges already under way before the surrunit

Korean academic and civic groups already have submitted numerous proposals for exchange programs.

h anniversary of liberation from Japanese rule onugust is an opportunity for both skies to showcase other tangible results such as tbe first exchange of divided families.

South Korean officials want to deliver soon on promises of economic aid and redevelopment assistance, which they assess is driving Pyongyang's willingness to engage the South, Seoul plans to double the North-South Cooperation Fund to nearlyillion, according to press reports.

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Steering Clear of Danger Zones

The Koreas will sidestep high-profile talks on US or bilateral troop cuts or on human and religious rights in the North, which would risk spoiling tbe sommit euphoria in the South. The rnain opposition party in the South wants the legislature Io oversee and impose checks on President Kim's assistance plans, and it would become even more assertive if Kim's government stumbled in dealing with sensitive issues.

Kim Chong-fl's impressive sumnut performance and rwstsumroit good will gestures suggest Pyongyang understands the dynamics shaping South Korean support for expanded economic assistance. Tbe gestures includedouth Korean fishing boat that strayed into me North's waters and canceling Korean war coinniernoradons.

summil comments that be could accept an interim US troop presence suggest he realizes that controversy in the South over security issues and discord between Seoul and its allies would damage prospects for development aid.

The North's mediaPyongyang wants to temper hopes among North Koreans thai-' will bring immediate economic*

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