SENIOR EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Created: 7/21/2000

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EAST ASIA

North Korea: Analytic Perspective

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Emerging Confidence

Kim's agreement toummit may symbolize his debutature leader beforeh birthday incultural milestone in the Koreas. His status as successor had depended on maintaining hispproval. In dealing with the South, Kim is signaling that be is stepping out from under his father's shadow.

Over the past two years. Kim's[

diplomatic ventures, and garnering of humanitarian assistance have eased bis immediate concerns about survival and made him more confident he can manage change while preserving internal stability and his hold on power. I

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Kim's Intentions

Norm Korean propaganda coniinues to depict systemic market reformsestern trap, bat Kim may intend to bring the economy back to altandards through carefully controlled feed go-assisted infrastructure development and technical modernization. It is unclear whether the vision Kim snared with bis father of unification on the North's terras, especially the implicit notionilitary takeover, has changed, but Kim may have decided he can keep his options open for eventual unification by fostering economic development.

revertontronlabonaie ieeis pressured.

ie ui any case will want control of the pace and direction of engagemenL

He could continue covert efforts to subvert the South and play on nationalist sentiments in the South to encourage questioning of the role of US forces.

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