The DCI Strategic Warning Committee's
TierCategory Update: Of Increased Concern
Of Decreased Concern
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FROM: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
The PCI Strategic Warning Committee's Watchlist Summary1
The following summary Indicate* the likelihooderious threat developing over Ihe next six
ol concern (as compared wttn one week ago)
increased No charge
Colombia: Rising Insurgent violence and economic weakness undermining the credibility and ettectlveness ot the government and its counternarcotics program. Rebels likely to continue attacks in run up to cease-fire talks later this month.
TierCategory Update (C)
Tieratch category for selected Hers IB, III. and IV countries where military, political, economic, or social developments art likely to arise within the next six toonths requiring significant US diplomatic, military, or law enforcement action. Countriesier ll are:
Level of concern (as compared with theVer D. update)
Columbia. Threat: Rising insurgent violenceeakening economy undermine the credibility and effectiveness of the government and its counternarxoties program. Local newspaper surveys indicatelic support for President Pastrana has risen significantlyesult of President Clinloa's visit locking off Plan Colombia. Those surveyedirect correlation between the US Presidential visit and improved prospects for peace and the economy, although the severity of those problems suggests Pastraiut's boost is fragile. Improvements in the military's close air support has curtailed large-scale insurgent operations by threatening swift, decisive airvtrikes against known insurgentevertheless, PARC anduerrillas continue to control most rural areas, destroying pcnverlines. establishing major roadblocks, and attacking isolated police garrisons. Although peace talks with the FARC have made litile substantive progress thus far, the government is hoping over Ihe next few weeks to generate momentumemporary cease-fire agreement.ruce wouldolitical boon for Pastrana, the FARC will insist on some difficult conditions, suchrisoner exchange or the expansion of its safehaven. Talks with tbe ELN arc likely to remain hung up over the proposed creationafehaven for the smaller insurgentidea that has sparked mtense public protests. Meanwhile, although the economy is reboijriding modestly fromercent contraction last year, many Colombians continue to feel the pinch ofpercent unemployment. (Currently on the Waiehlist and the AtrocitiesOriginal document.