NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 3/17/2006

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Contents

Situationtii

Briefs and ConMnii

Iraq-Nigeri Uranium

International: Tha FLO and the

Victnam-KABiS'uchea-Thaiiandi Border

International: Threatened OAPtC

Israeli Possible Ko-Confidenoe

Algeria! Deployment2

Castest Germany: Siirtiit

Angolai Sabotage

Ecuador i treeidential

Special Ar.alyim

soutii Africa! Tlu Black Labor

situation reports

ussr-afghanistan

Security conditions in Afghanistan'e third largest citywhich has been plagued with strikes, demonstrations, "andofficiate since the Soviet iwMsion

apparently have deteriomted i

i soviet, and afghan

soldiers reacted by sealing old the southeastern and

southwestern portions of the city, evacuatingearby mosqueports stadium, anda house-to-house search for insurgents.

lastoviet battalion moved to blockto herat anil tc free additional afghan forces tov itself. i

iptcd .ear.

the trouble

the insurgents to increase their ac-"i'ho government does not appear to

irocior andh.uuuo puyei's and fasting in theof ramadan probably contributed to tho unrest. i

I

troops evidently followed the practice m :nh. c ar.ci

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the soviets appear willing toigher level of unrest in outlying cities such as herat than thav rvrmir in tap highly visible capital of kabul.

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IRAN

formation of the Covcrjwent

ran

serobly approva]

Prime Minister Rajai on Monday said that h* expects to rare his cabinet withinday period allotted by the Iranian constitution. He has not yet indicated whicln individuals ara under consideration, but has said that their revolutionary credentials nust be impeccable. Ayatollah Rafsan]ani--who has becocse irore proninont since his selection as speaker of the Islamic Coi Assembly--said On Monde

debate c< sercbly decides to each Rajai nomine<

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As-

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BRIEFS AND COMMENTS

INTERNATIONAL: The PLO and the IMP

Voting under wait in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank over the admission of the PLO ae an observer to annual meetings this year ie likely to politicize further these institutions andtheir ability to contribute to international eeonomio

The Executive Directors of the IMF and World Bank have recommended that observer status bo limited to those groups that had obtained such status bymove that would block PLO admission. The voting will not endeptember, however, and the outcome remains very much in doubt.

Foreign response has boon mixed. Potential recipients of IMF and World Bank assistance, particularly developing countries, want to avoid voting against the US on this issue. Support among these nations has boon tempered,y recognition of OPEC oil and financial leverage.

EC support for the recommendations is positive, but the UK faces domestic political problems over the issue.

Tho influence of the PLO position reflects important changes in the international environment and in theinstitutions. Countries are increasingly willing to introduce previously unacceptable political issues into the affairs ofnternational This reality is reinforcedecline in Western financial leverage within these organizations. i

VIBTNAM-KAMtUCHEA-TIIAILAND: Border Situation

The Vietnamese apparently are determined to break up concentrations of Pol Pot's Kampuchean resistance forces along the border and to prevent them from achieving major military gains during the remaining two to three months of the monsoon season-

The Thai have forced some of Pol Pot's forces back into Kampuchea to reduce the possibilityarge Vietnamese cross-border operation and clashes between Thai and Vietnamese troops*

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JJ HUgU&L ISJOU

INTERNATIONAL: Threatened OAPEC Boycott

Saudi Arabia and Iraq recently threatened to cut off oil suppliesetherlands androm south and Centraldiplomatic missions in Jerusalem. oycott by mcisbers of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries and Iran would probably have little or no impact on oil supplies to the threatened countries. Other than Chile and Uruguay, the countries with missions in Jerusalem depend very little on oil from OAPEC countries and Iran. Whilearge volume of OAPEC oil, most of it is processed and reexported; Dutch needs could be met from other suppliers. imilar situation lgst year, Iraq cut off oil supplies to Canada.

ISRAEL: Possible No-Confidence Vote

The Labor Party mayo-confidence motion at the special session of parliament called today to ratify Prime Minister Begin's nominationewof Justice. Begin, who has called for the return of coalition Knesset deputies vacationing abroad, should be able to rally sufficient votes to approve his nominee and to defeat any attempt by Labor to unseat his

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ALGERIA: Deployment2 Tanks

Algeria nay have fielded2 tanks.

con-

tinuing tension with Morocco over western sanarawill sustain the Algerian arms procurementleaders are said to have negotiatedaccord with Moscow last year that is likelyadditional

EAST GERMANY - WEST GERMANY: Summit Shifted

The mooting of East German party leador Erich Ifonecker and West German Chancellor Schmidtwill take place at Werbelllnemote area northeast of Berlin, and not at the Baltic resort of Ostseebad Dicrhagcn, according to an East Gorman This shift of venue poses "great problems" for Bonn, and Schmidt's staff is seeking clarification of the move. Th* press has been told that Schmidt will not enter Fast Berlin nn route to WerbollJn, so as not to enhance the East German claim to its capital city.

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ANGOLA: Sabotage Incident

On Monday, insurgents of Jonas Savimbi's National Union for the Total Independence of Angola sabotagedortbito, damaging petroleum storage facili-

the Angolan Government has blamod

tnc attacKita and on South Africa. |

ECUADOR: Presidential victory

President Roldos scored an importantctory on Monday when his candidate was electedof the Chamber of Representatives. Under the leadership of its former president, Assad Ducaram, the Chamber had frustrated much of Roldos' program, creating an impasse during the first year of his administratirn. The new leadership of the Chimbor will not bobut government-sponsored legislationd smoother sailing, enabling Roldos to turn more of his attention to economic and social issues.

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SPECIAL ANALYSIS

SOUTH AFRICA: The Black Labor Problem

Ulack uorkarg now make upercent of South Africa's labor force, and unrest among this group appears likely to increasettto government's aomtbxent to provide black uorkere with in" creased economic benefits. Although more black unions are being forwed, the geve'-nment is unlikely to meet their demands for more rapid movement touard complete equality in industrial relations.

After several peaceful years on the labor scene,among the black Industrial work force has increased significantly over the lastonths. umber ofindustries have been aifeeted, including thecenters of eastern Cape Province, gold and diamond

mines, textile the synthetic fuel plants

in the Transvaal.

The recent strike0 municipal employees in Johannesburg was the largest single strike by blacks in South African history. It also involvedlack migrant workers who, in the past, hadfrom participating in strikes for fear of being deported to the homelands.I-

Although black wages in recent years have beenfaster than those of whites, blacks still earn significantly less than whites. More important, blacks are restricted by regulations and lack of trair.ine to lower paying jobs. |

South Africa'spercent inflation rate has severely affected blacks, whoargo portion of their wages on necessities, alack union leaders are now calling for a i tho cost-of-living indexiny wage."

--continued

IJ August 1'JKU

Some of the unrest reflects black unhappiness over certain aspects of the government's now policy on relations. Although black unions can register legally and participate in collective bargaining under laws enacted last September, they are prohibited from engaging in political activity and arc subject tooversight once they register. Multiracial unions, moicover, ore registered only in special circumstances.

Many block unions have not registered because of the ban on political activities and tho restrictions on multiracial unions. In addition, white unions hoveestablishing black satellite unions that remain under wnito control. Many recent strikes hove originated over dispctos between these satellite unions and independent black unions over bargaining rights with industry.

The Government's Position

The provision of greater economic opportunitiesis an important part of the government'sprogram. In addition to allowing black tho government has amendedblack entry into several skilledhas eased travel and residency restrictions onJob holders.

Kctorm-mindod white South Africans bolievo that economic improvements willlack middle cIohstake in the existing system. In addition, govern raent ond business experts have warned that South Africa, alroady sufferingkilled labor shortage, connotigh rate of economic growth unless it bo-gins to moke more efficient uso of its block Inbor force.

Economic growth is important not only for ito own sake but olso because blacks now compriseercent of new entries into the labor market. South Africa willrowing black unemployment problem unless the economy win^nr atercent annual growth rate. [

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Government economic and labor reforms are aimed at providing just enough change to maintain stability, but they arc also creating conditions that may lead to future unrest. Migrant workers, for example, who comprise about half of the black industrial labor force, arc now allowed to join unions. Their association in unions with more politically aware urban blacks probably will result in greater unity among bj.nck workers and increased activism by migrant blacks.

The government believed that its reforms would remove the LabOC issue from the political arena, but the struggle between satellite unions and independent black unions increasingly has taken on political overtones. The leaders of independent unions are becoming tsore militant and their conflicts with satellite unions over black demands for legitimate and unfettered representation reflect overall the frustration of the blacks with their inferior position.

A government crackdown on independent unionsleaders could temporarily deter unrest. Inrun, however, it probably would damage theattempt totable black workingaware blacks know that concerted actionworkers is the most effective form ofcan be exerted against the government.

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