The world is heading for a long recession

Article Abstract:

The possibility that the downturn in the global economy will push Britain into recession is examined in detail. In Aug 2001 the UK economy is still growing and the government's policies can still make an impact.

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The trouble with trying to predict the economy

Article Abstract:

Economic relationships are now changing so rapidly that economists find it extremely difficult to predict economic developments, even in the short term. It is clear that traditional economic patterns are no longer a reliable basis for predictions. The UK now has a service economy, rather than a manufacturing one, and economists will never be fully able to understand economic developments.

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Why we failed to read the signs of frailty and warn of East Asia's crisis

Article Abstract:

It is very surprising that experts did not give any warning of the financial crisis in east Asia. There are a number of explanations for why this happened. The underlying economic performance of east Asia has been very strong, and it was therefore widely assumed that the region would be able to withstand any problems. There were structural weaknesses in the sources of information about east Asia's economy, as few experts study this region. Furthermore, east Asia's authoritarian regimes were able to conceal what was really happening.

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