Article Abstract:
In this paper, a fuzzy decision algorithm is proposed to select the most suitable advanced manufacturing system (AMS) alternative from a set of mutually exclusive alternatives. Both economic evaluation criterion and strategic criteria such as flexibility, quality improvement, which are not quantitative in nature, are considered for selection. The economic aspects of the AMS selection process are addressed using the fuzzy discounted cash flow analysis. The decision algorithm aggregates the experts' preference ratings for the economic and strategic criteria weights, and the suitability of AMS investment alternatives versus the selection criteria to calculate fuzzy suitability indices. The fuzzy indices are then used to rank the AMS investment alternatives. Triangular fuzzy numbers are used throughout the analysis to quantify the vagueness inherent in the financial estimates such as periodic cash flows, interest rate and inflation rates, experts' linguistic assessments for strategic justification criteria, and importance weight of each criterion. A comprehensive numerical example is provided to illustrate the results of the analysis. [C] 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All fights reserved. Keywords: Fuzzy decision analysis; Multi-criteria decision-making; Investment analysis; Flexible manufacturing systems
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Article Abstract:
A survey of forecasting practices was carried out to provide a better understanding of Canadian business practices, and when possible, compare them with US practices. Companies in the US and Canada have the same use for forecasting information. Forecasts are generated and used mostly by marketing/sales. Judgmental procedures are used more frequently than any other method. Quantitative, causal and newer methods are not used as much. In line with this, firms do not keep as much data per product/service forecasted. Senior management revises the forecast frequently and believes that on average, accuracy is improved by the revision. Calculation of improvement metrics shows that the variation in the improvement may negate the advantage gained. [C] 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Forecasting; Survey; Canada
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Article Abstract:
A study developed a stochastic finite horizon overhaul-replacement model to enable the analysis of critical variables in correctly gauging policy decisions pertaining to replacement or overhaul of equipment that are subject to technological changes. The proposed model incorporates inflation and income tax effects and allows for three types of decisions, namely, to keep, overhaul or replace. The optimal integrated overhaul-replacement policy that maximizes the expected existing value of the process over a specific planning horizon is determined by solving the model using linear programming.
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