Whatever happened to Goldilocks? The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the US and the UK

Article Abstract:

The economy of the United States during the 1990s was referred to as 'Goldilocks economy,' a period during which unemployment was too low. A analyzing the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as explicit inflation expectations, and using Philips curve model, is presented. When explicit inflation expectations are included, a decline in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment is observed.

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Inflow composition, duration dependence and their impact on the unemployment outflow rate

Article Abstract:

The component of dynamics of the unemployment outflow rate is analyzed using British data. According to the analysis, fluctuations of unemployment are governed by fluctuations in the inflow rate and the outflow rate.

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Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment

Article Abstract:

The dynamic behavior of UK unemployment is studied. The fractional integration methods are used for this purpose.

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