Setting accuracy targets for short-term judgemental sales forecasting

Article Abstract:

This paper approaches forecast error within irreducible error uncertainty and thus derivation of accuracy is presented with a bound and compares well with alternative models of relative measure.

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A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead

Article Abstract:

A study comparing six univariate methods of forecasting electricity demand for short term is presented. The study helps in forecasting electricity demand for a lead time up to one day. The study is based on electricity demand in Rio de Janiero.

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Density forecasting for weather derivative pricing

Article Abstract:

A method of pricing a weather derivative, using a forecast of density payoff from the derivative, is presented and described. Weather derivatives are used by energy industries to cover weather risks.

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