Forecasting with scenarios

Article Abstract:

The convergence of scenario development and current forecasting practice is becoming increasingly evident. Scenario analysis involves describing feasible predictions for the future which are not necessarily the most probable outcome. Scenarios can be used to support strategic planning in several areas. Popular areas of scenario analysis are described, with focus on associated research into judgmental forecasting and human cognition. Scenario construction is examined, including scenarios with decision-making entities and scenario interdependencies.

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A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes

Article Abstract:

A study is reported of investigations into the judgemental sales forecasts of thirteen manufacturers to discover whether their predictions are efficient, accurate and unbiased, and whether a computer-based model would have been better.

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The use of Bayesian forecasting to make process adjustments during transitions

Article Abstract:

The use of Bayesian forecasting for making process adustments during a transition phase is discussed.

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